UConn vs. Purdue preview: Betting trends, advanced stats analysis

UConn will battle Purdue on Monday night for the national championship game as both teams chase history.

For the Huskies, they’re looking to become the first team to repeat as national champs since Florida did it in 2006-07. The Gators are the only other team in the last 30 years to accomplish the feat, so UConn would be joining some very exclusive company if it can beat the Boilermakers.

For Purdue, Matt Painter’s squad is closing in on the ultimate redemption after losing in the first round of the NCAA Tournament a year ago. This Purdue team has been excellent all season behind Zach Edey, an elite group of 3-point shooters and a very strong defense.

Let’s break down this matchup:

UConn vs. Purdue Betting Odds

Spread: UConn -6.5 (ESPN BET)

Total: Over/Under 144.5 points (ESPN BET)

Betting trends to know for UConn

UConn is…

27-12 against the spread
27-11 against the spread as a favorite
11-1 against the spread in neutral-site games
5-0 against the spread during the NCAA Tournament

Betting trends to know for Purdue

Purdue is…

21-15-2 against the spread
2-0 against the spread as an underdog
9-2-1 against the spread in neutral-site games
5-0 against the spread during the NCAA Tournament

3 notes for the game

Donovan Clingan vs. Zach Edey

This is shaping up to be a big-man matchup for the ages in the national championship game.

Edey, a 7-foot-4 giant who has incredible touch around the rim, has been beating up on smaller defenders for years now. Clingan is, too, but at 7-foot-2, he’s certainly a more physically-imposing presence than Edey is used to dealing with on the low-block. Clingan isn’t just big, he’s an elite defensive prospect who protects the rim as well as any college player in recent memory. He’s recorded 18 blocks in UConn’s 5 NCAA Tournament games thus far.

Purdue simply must win this matchup to have a chance. Edey is Purdue’s preferred source of offense, although the Boilermakers do have some capable 3-pointers as well. But Purdue is in the title game because Edey is on a historic run of production — 27 points, 15 rebounds and 2 assists per game during the NCAA Tournament. That can’t slow down just because Clingan is on the other side of this matchup.

Clingan is also somewhat of an offensive threat that Edey will have to contend with on the other end. He averaged 13 points per game this season and scored 18 in UConn’s win over Alabama in the Final Four. His biggest impact will come on defense, but Clingan’s offense is also something to keep an eye on in this game.

Who wins the 3-point battle?

Both of these teams are very strong from beyond the arc, but in different ways.

Purdue was the second-best 3-point shooting team in the country in terms of percentage this season, hitting 40.6% of their shots from 3-point range. They’ve been amongst the elite of the elite all season and have a deep group of guards who are capable of hitting that shot at a high-level: Braden Smith, Mason Gillis, Fletcher Loyer and Lance Jones.

UConn isn’t quite as accurate from deep, hitting 36% of their shots from long range. But the Huskies attempt a significantly-higher percentage of their overall shots from 3-point land, which helps to make up for some of that dip in efficiency. Cam Spencer, Alex Karaban and Tristen Newton have been UConn’s best and most-frequent shooters this year, but freshman Stephon Castle has been coming on as well. He hit a couple of early 3-pointers in UConn’s Final Four win over Alabama.

Defensively, both teams also guard the perimeter very well, ranking in the top-50 in 3-point percentage defense. UConn did a better job of limiting attempts, however, as opposing offenses attempted just 33.4% of their total field goal attempts from distance (50th) nationally. Purdue’s defense ranks 171st in that category. Overall, it’s a pretty even matchup on paper — if one team has a clear advantage over the other in this category, it should go a long way toward determining the winner.

Intriguing betting trends, history

Both of these teams have been excellent against the spread during the season and pristine during the NCAA Tournament. They both will carry 5-0 ATS records from the Big Dance into the title game on Monday night. UConn has beaten the number by an average of 10.8 points per game during the Tournament. The Boilermakers have beaten the spread by 8.5 points per game. Those are absurd performances against the market, especially this late into the season.

And still, UConn is a historic favorite in this game. The Huskies are favored by 6.5 points at most books, which is the largest spread for any national title game between No. 1 seeds since 1999. Of course, in that 1999 games, UConn upset Duke as 9.5-point underdogs to win the national championship.

Underdogs have been the profitable side in recent matchups between No. 1 seeds on this stage. They are 4-3 both straight up and against the spread in this spot. The underdog covered and won outright in 2021 (Baylor), 2015 (Duke), 2008 (Kansas) and 1999 (UConn).

In the context of this season, this will be just the 3rd time all year that Purdue is an underdog. The Boilermakers were 2.5 point underdogs against Illinois on March 5 and 2-point underdogs to Arizona on Dec. 16. Purdue won those games by 6 and 8 points, respectively.

1 pick for this game

UConn -6.5. The trends, to some degree, are pointing toward Purdue. Models such as KenPom and BartTorvik are showing value on the Boilermakers as well. But at the end of the day, I think this UConn team is special — it might be the best college hoops team of the last decade. UConn has an undeniable track record of squeezing the life out of teams in the second half in a way that I think is unparalleled. I expect Clingan to give Edey more trouble than he’s used to on the low block. And Purdue’s defense, while good, may not have enough answers for a UConn offense that has an adjusted efficiency rating of 127.2 — the highest mark on KenPom since Villanova in 2018.