ESPN betting expert shares concerns for USC in B1G debut season

USC enters the Big Ten coming off a disappointing final season in the Pac-12. The Trojans opened the 2023 campaign with a 6-0 start, but dropped five of its last six regular-season contests, dropping out of championship contention. Lincoln Riley’s squad grabbed a postseason victory to finish 8-5 in its final Pac-12 season.

Facing B1G competition such as Michigan and Penn State, as well as nonconference clashes with LSU and Notre Dame, the Trojans have a tough path back to title contention. At DraftKings Sportsbook, oddsmakers have set the over/under for USC’s win total at 7.5 victories.

ESPN betting expert Steve Coughlin, aka “Stanford Steve,” recently appeared on Andy Staples’ podcast to talk win totals. Coughlin shared that he does not have a good read on what to expect from USC in the B1G. He highlighted multiple areas of uncertainty and concern with the Trojans.

Coughlin wondered how well USC will protect its quarterback. He noted that Caleb Williams was particularly effective at escaping pressure. Williams, though, is now a rookie in the NFL. This year, Miller Moss steps into the QB1.

“With Miller Moss, I’m never going to doubt Lincoln Riley on the offensive side, never,” Coughlin said. “(Riley) does a great job of playing to his strengths. (Zachariah) Branch is still, I think, gonna have an all time season with the versatility he has…

“Lincoln does a great job of what great coaches do – get the ball to your best player. But I do wonder about that offensive line now going to the Big Ten. The diversity of defense you’re going to face in that conference. I think a lot of Miller Moss. I love his story. …

“The Big Ten is known for their play up front and does SC have that?”

While the physicality of the Big Ten in the trenches will be an adjustment, Coughlin also identified an area where USC might be at an advantage in the B1G.

“Now I will say what might help them is you’re not going to face as many lethal offenses as you did in the Pac-12. And having to play you know, a Notre Dame that had an NFL quarterback, say in years past,” Coughlin said, noting it did not quite “even out.”

While the change in conference is significant, when betting on the win total, it matters which teams in and outside the B1G the Trojans are facing. Riley’s squad has a notably cupcake-free opening month. USC travels to Las Vegas to open the season against LSU on Sept. 1.

“I think LSU is gonna have the best offensive line in the country,” Coughlin said. “What are you going to be out of that game … Are you going to be able to compete? Are you going to be able to get back up in Week 2?”

The home opener is against a Utah State squad that played a bowl game in 2023. In B1G play, the Trojans open with a road trip to face defending national champion Michigan. In Week 4, Luke Fickell’s Wisconsin team, which went 7-6 last season.

“When you look at that schedule in its totality … What’s your record going to be? What are you going to be at the end of September?”