It appears very likely the Wisconsin Badgers will return to the field for their first game since they opened the B1G season against Illinois on Oct. 23. The team announced over the weekend there were limited conditioning activities on Friday, and the Badgers returned to regular game-week preparation on Monday as they get ready for Saturday night’s game against Michigan.

As of Monday, the program announced it had 5 active COVID-19 cases — 2 student-athletes, 3 staff members. So where does that leave Wisconsin as it finally gets back to practice readying for a struggling Michigan team?

While missing all the practice time certainly isn’t ideal, Wisconsin will leave Ann Arbor with a victory on Saturday night. Here are a few reasons why.

Graham Mertz, Mr. Almost Perfect, is likely back

Remember that opening Friday night when redshirt freshman Graham Mertz showed the college football universe that the Badgers finally appear to have a quarterback? Wisconsin and Illinois basically played a stand-alone game on Oct. 23, so college football fans all over were able to watch Mertz sling the ball all over the yard, putting his name in the Wisconsin football record books in his first start, completing 20 of 21 passes for 248 yards and 5 touchdowns.

Mertz was the first of the Wisconsin players to be reported to have coronavirus, and while he would’ve missed the last two games, against Nebraska and Purdue, he appears on track to return to practice late this week. It should be noted head coach Paul Chryst didn’t fully commit to Mertz starting, though it would be a surprise to keep him on the bench after what he showed in his season debut — even with limited practice time.

Running game will improve

If there was one area that could be criticized for Wisconsin in its 45-7 season-opening win, it would be its running game, strangely enough. While it’s unfair to compare the Badgers’ current backfield with what Jonathan Taylor was able to do the three previous seasons, fans had to be a bit underwhelmed with what they saw from the new trio of backs — Garrett Groshek, Nakia Watson and Isaac Guerendo. Combined, they finished with 43 carries for 168 yards, which is 3.9 yards per carry. Not great by Wisconsin standards.

There are a few reasons for optimism that the rushing attack should improve against Michigan. Illinois has traditionally focused in on the Badgers’ running game. Throughout his career, Taylor scored just 1 touchdown against the Illini, and his per-carry average against them was 1.3 yards below his career average.

The second reason? It’s Wisconsin. Wisconsin runs the ball well and if it doesn’t work, the Badgers will probably keep running until it does work.

Michigan’s apparent lack of motivation

I was stunned by how poorly Michigan played against Indiana last weekend. I was able to forgive the Wolverines for getting taken down by a rebuilding Michigan State team just because weird things happen in a rivalry game. I thought for sure Michigan would take care of business against an Indiana team it couldn’t overlook even though the Wolverines hadn’t lost to the Hoosiers since 1987.

Michigan looked uninspired and played very poorly in its last two games. It looked especially undisciplined against Indiana, jumping offsides 5 times. Now sitting at 1-2, what do the Wolverines have to look forward to? Where is the motivation going to come from going into an empty Big House? Clearly, whatever Jim Harbaugh is preaching isn’t working, and they’re set to play a Wisconsin team that should be fired up to finally return to the field.

Remember last year?

Last season’s game against Michigan was about as good as it can feel for a Wisconsin football fan. The Badgers jumped out to an early lead, going for it on fourth down from their own 34-yard line, and went into halftime ahead 28-0. Wisconsin coasted to a 35-14 stomping of Michigan, which had no answer controlling the Badgers’ running game, and Jack Coan threw just 3 incompletions.

How much has changed in Michigan’s favor since then? Aside from the obvious Wisconsin is returning this week from the coronavirus, I would argue the Badgers have widened the gap over the Wolverines. Michigan isn’t really sure what it is right now, while Wisconsin’s defense is expected to be among the best in the B1G and the Badgers appear to have their best quarterback since Russell Wilson under center.