Jonathan Taylor passed his first round of vetting for Heisman voters this weekend. No spinach in his teeth, waistline just beneath the required size, and perfect execution on the flaming baton routine set to “Sandstorm.” 

His 203 rushing yards and a robust 8.8 yards per attempt with two touchdowns generated some buzz in Week Four. With his effort on Saturday  he’s totaled 10 touchdowns, 440 rushing yards, and stapled a defeated and deflated Wolverine carcass to the floor of his trophy room. Business as usual for Taylor. 

The Wisconsin running back’s numbers are set to surpass the hard-earned yardage highs of his first two years in Madison. What’s different this season is the Badgers have a quarterback in Jack Coan competent enough to keep the secondary honest so Taylor does not have to face the equivalent of a goal line defense on first and second down. A big year for Taylor and what looks like the best team in the Big Ten West, and second overall in the conference usually comes with a set of accolades. This season it could come with THE (imagine how tacky a trademark symbol would look there) accolade.

Yes, Taylor is front of the line for non-quarterbacks to win the Heisman. If the first two games of the year put his name in the collective conscience of Heisman sect, the 35-21 victory over Michigan slapped his name on the group’s neocortex.

Give him credit for generating this sort of buzz since the group is responsible for giving quarterbacks a king complex and borderline exclusivity of the award. 

Since 1999 only four running backs have won the award. We count Reggie Bush because anyone who tries to vacate his Heisman after watching five minutes of clips from his time at USC suffers from a lack of athletic spirit and should consider a career in compliance. The dour look on their face probably pairs well with all the earth tones in the wardrobe.

There’s not a lot of evidence to review between all the backs and even Bush lined up at wide receiver enough to qualify as some sort of do-it-all-dynamo. That leaves Ron Dayne in 1999, Mark Ingram in 2009, and Derrick Henry in 2015. Taylor’s numbers will be right there with all of them by the end of the year.

What about his margin for error?

How many burning bags on the front porch can he have to keep him in Heisman contention? 

Dayne’s stinkers for Wisconsin came on the front end of the season against Michigan and Minnesota, both teams ranked at the time. We’re qualifying stinkers as anything under 100 yards. It’s the Heisman, not the Region 5 Des Moines Running Back of September. Dayne finished the season rushing for over 200 yards in four games and really hit his stride to end the year. 

Ingram’s 2009 season at Alabama is a little more complicated if only because he played downright poor against Arkansas and Auburn. He saved his big moments for other SEC games and his big yardage days came against LSU, Ole Miss, and Mississippi State. 2009 was before Nick Saban performed an exorcism on his offense and Ingram’s steadiness gave balance to a team successful for its efforts on defense. Then there’s Henry.

A review of Henry’s 2015 season requires a chair with a strong back and a washcloth to wipe any pooling perspiration. After starting the season with 147 rushing yards and three touchdowns against Wisconsin, Henry saved his biggest days for SEC games. His stats read silly right now, with 148 yards against Georgia, 236 against Texas A&M, 210 against LSU, and 271 against Auburn. His stinkers came against Middle Tennessee and Charleston Southern. Henry didn’t play clubs and lounges, he only performed in front of sold out stadiums. 

All three varied in their numbers and performance. Dayne hit his stride at the end of the season, Ingram accumulated numbers at a consistent pace, and Henry ran the ball for numbers more fitting a quarterback’s passing totals. What do their numbers mean for Taylor?

By an unofficial count he can have two stinkers. They’ll need to come against Kent State and either Illinois, Northwestern, or Purdue. Wisconsin will be big favorites in any of those and won’t need him to win. From a reps standpoint the Badgers would benefit from getting Coan as many attempts as possible heading into a three-game stretch at Ohio State, home for Iowa, and at Nebraska. I know, identity crisis for the Badgers. 

That stretch, specifically against Ohio State and Iowa, are the sort of games with the necessary national exposure against defenses to legitimize the eye-popping numbers he’s earned so far. Crack 125 yards and not only is Wisconsin in a close game, Taylor’s candidacy lives for another week. Throw in a strong effort against Michigan State and it’s Taylor’s award to lose so long as the Lincoln Riley Appreciation Tour takes a one-year hiatus.

Not picking a quarterback to win the Heisman bucks a two-decade long trend, but thanks to Wisconsin’s devotion to the run, the extra blockers it employs in multiple formations, and talent at the other skill positions, Taylor at the very least is guaranteed an invite to New York City as a finalist for the award. It’s obvious what he needs to do, and more importantly, what sorts of numbers he needs to surpass on a game-by-game basis to win the award.