State of the quarterback position: Where does Wisconsin go from here?
Whoever was left aboard the Graham Mertz Hype Train should’ve jumped off sometime during Saturday’s fourth quarter.
That runaway locomotive derailed in gruesome fashion in Chicago, leaving carnage. Wisconsin fans, avert your eyes. Walk home. This is no party train now, if it ever was. The Badgers’ highly-touted QB has gone off the rails, taking his team’s offense with him.
If someone just looked at the final score of the Badgers’ 41-13 loss to Notre Dame at Soldier Field, they would be stunned to know Wisconsin led the Fighting Irish early in the fourth quarter.
Even the most optimistic of Graham Mertz supporters no longer want to go along for this ride. Mertz turned the ball over 4 times in the final quarter, and his last 2 throws went for Notre Dame touchdowns to cap off an embarrassing finish as the Badgers fell to 1-2.
Mertz finished the game with 5 turnovers. When opportunities were there for game-changing plays to open wide receivers down the field, many of Mertz’s throws were uncatchable. He completed just 18 of 41 passes for 240 yards, though he did finally throw his first touchdown pass of the season.
Three games into 2021, the Madison townspeople are up in arms with what’s happening at the quarterback position.
Last year, though he never made any excuses, Mertz had every reason to not be successful in his first season as the starting quarterback. There were several key injuries and COVID-19 issues.
But this year, Mertz seemed set up to succeed. It’s tough to blame anything other than poor execution for this offense’s woes. The running game has not come close to Wisconsin’s standards, but the struggles in the passing game will remain the focus until something changes.
Mertz’s confidence has to be at an all-time low, though he denies it every time reporters ask. Just a few years ago, he was in high school with scholarship offers from every elite college program in the country, and he picked the Badgers because they were among the first teams who believed in him.
There’s no doubt the hype around him as the highest ranked quarterback recruit in program history is a large part of why fans are so frustrated. Mertz did not choose to be ranked as a high 4-star recruit, but criticism is going to come when you’re a starting quarterback at the highest level of college football. Through a growing sample size, the results have come nowhere near where many thought this offense could be at this point in Mertz’s career.
Who’s behind him?
The backup to a struggling quarterback is a Twitter user’s best friend, but it’s highly unlikely we will see Mertz removed as the starter this season. Every time the passing game struggles to push the ball down the field, backup junior quarterback Chase Wolf will be mentioned.
In 12 pass attempts through his college career, Wolf has thrown 3 interceptions. In his lone appearance this season, he entered late in a blowout win over Eastern Michigan. In one possession, he threw a pick that went 98 yards the other way for the Eagles’ lone score. Mertz re-entered to finish the game.
What exactly would the coaching staff be rewarding by naming Wolf the No. 1 guy moving forward? It’d be quite the mixed message to bench one player for turning the ball over too much only to give the job to a player who also turns it over at a high rate.
If fans are envisioning a healthy Mertz watching from the sideline while Wolf plays a whole game, that’s not going to happen in 2021. A more realistic option would be a 2-quarterback system with Wolf entering occasionally as a wildcat option, which the Badgers tried briefly against Minnesota last season.
Other quarterbacks on the roster include Danny Vanden Boom, who has thrown 1 pass in his career — a touchdown in 2018 — and true freshman Deacon Hill.
Losing the turnover battle
Mertz has started 10 games to this point — all 7 last season and the first 3 this year. Over that span, he is completing 59.7% of his passes, with 10 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. When you add in lost fumbles, his turnover total is 14.
Wisconsin had plenty of roster advantages in losses to Penn State and Notre Dame; quarterback play was the difference. While those 2 teams combined to turn the ball over just once (a sack-induced fumble by the Irish), Mertz gave up the ball 8 times, and that number easily could have been worse.
With the Badgers trying to run out the clock in the first half deep in their own end against Notre Dame, he mishandled a low shotgun snap, recovered it, tried to gain a few extra yards and fumbled, though it was recovered by Jake Ferguson to avoid what would’ve been a huge moment at that point of the game. With a first-and-goal from the 1-yard line trailing by 6 points late against Penn State, Mertz let the ball slip out of his hands as he dropped back for a handoff, causing a 6-yard loss on a crucial drive that led to zero points.
Wisconsin has seen its struggles at the quarterback position over the years, but as a run-first team, the very least that should be expected is to hand the ball off to the running back without issues. Multiple failures in that part of the game is one of the many reasons the coaching staff appears to have a lack of trust in Mertz.
What’s the future?
Assuming Mertz stays healthy this season, the future as far as 2021 goes includes probably 10 more starts — 9 in the regular season, then a bowl game. No, I’m not entertaining the thought of Wisconsin missing a bowl game. The rest of this year will determine what the team’s future could look like at the quarterback position. If Mertz plays well and the passing game undergoes a complete turnaround, all is well and the ceiling for what this offense can be in the future remains high.
If the passing game continues to play as poorly as it is right now, I’d be pretty stunned if there wasn’t an open quarterback competition in the offseason. Maybe that competition comes from quarterbacks on the current roster, or Wisconsin could grab somebody from the transfer portal.
From a recruiting perspective, the Badgers have a commitment for the 2022 class from Myles Burkett, a 3-star in-state prospect who is expected to sign in December. Wisconsin does not have a single commitment from anybody for 2023, but the Badgers appear to be in a decent position to potentially land 4-star Brayden Dorman out of Colorado.