After three weeks of college football, most B1G teams reached the 25% mark of their regular season schedule, but that isn’t the case for the Wisconsin Badgers. Nebraska and Illinois both have played four games in at this point, but Wisconsin got a bye two weeks into the season. Now the Badgers prepare for a stretch that includes 10 games over the next 10 Saturdays and, if all goes well, an 11th consecutive game.

Still, it’s never too early to reassess what we’ve seen from the Badgers, who head into a really difficult two-game stretch against Notre Dame and Michigan in consecutive weeks. But at least they have an extra week to prepare for them.

We will learn a lot about what this team can do over the next couple games after Wisconsin went 1-1 over its first two games. The Badgers easily handled Eastern Michigan and suffered a brutal season-opening loss to Penn State in a game they should’ve won. How do you lose a game when you have a 29-11 first down edge, dominate time of possession and outgain … you know what, that’s in the past.

It’s time to move forward but before we do, let’s evaluate what we’ve seen from the Badgers and revisit what expectations should be the rest of the way.

Who has emerged?

Chez Mellusi emerged as the No. 1 running back and is likely to lead the team in carries if he can stay healthy through the regular season. He left Clemson to go to an offense that provides running backs a larger workload, and things are going according to plan for him.

He never had more than eight carries in a game with the Tigers. In Madison, Mellusi carried the ball 31 times in his Badgers debut. That’s partly because of Jalen Berger’s unexpected absence, for which we still don’t have a clear reason for. Mellusi then added 20 rushing attempts in Game 2. This is likely a three-man backfield that also includes Berger and Isaac Guerendo, but Mellusi is the lead dog at this point.

It’s tough to say who has stood out on defense, so we’ll give credit to the entire front seven. Teams are not going to be able to run the ball against the Badgers this season with any sort of efficiency. The Badgers are allowing just 1.8 yards per carry, and more than half of the yards on the ground they have given up came on a 34-yard run from Penn State running back Noah Cain.

The defensive front had been a concern heading into the year without defensive ends Isaiahh Loudermilk and Garrett Rand. Wisconsin has even been without starting inside linebacker Leo Chenal, who missed the first two games due to COVID-19, but he should be back in the lineup moving forward.

Who needs to emerge?

It’s hard to say anybody other than Graham Mertz. Whether it’s fair or not, the ceiling of the Wisconsin football program can reach new heights if he plays to his potential both in 2021 and over the next few years.

Mertz had every reason under the sun to not perform well in the 2020 season, but there are no excuses at this point. If not for some unforced errors against Penn State like bad handoff exchanges in the red zone and some crucial missed throws, Wisconsin would be 2-0 at this point.

The coaching staff did not ask Mertz to do a whole lot in the second game. Whether Wisconsin should’ve tried to make more of an effort to get the passing attack going in a game situation is up for debate. He has two huge games coming up and if he comes up big in crucial spots, many of his previous blunders will be forgiven. Mertz has a few talented, experienced pass catchers on this offense, and he has every opportunity to prove he is the guy who can elevate this program.

Should we revise preseason expectations?

Before we answer this question, let’s dive back into what preseason expectations had been. Wisconsin entered Week 1 as the favorites to win the B1G West, had an over/under regular season win total at 9.5 and many of the preview magazines and websites had the Badgers as a Rose Bowl team. It’s way too early to project that far out after two games, but let’s do it anyway.

Wisconsin and Iowa were the clear top two teams to contend for the West Division title. At this point, the teams expected to contend for the division title are, well, Wisconsin and Iowa. The Hawkeyes are probably the favorites to win the West after a 3-0 start with a few impressive victories, though they seem limited offensively. Minnesota is the only other program in the West that can be a threat, but we’ll still keep Wisconsin and Iowa as the top two. The Badgers host Iowa on Oct. 30 in a game that very well could determine who goes to Indianapolis.

Wisconsin will need to finish 9-1 the rest of the way to hit the over in its projected 9.5 win total, and the Badgers have their work cut out for them without many guaranteed wins the rest of the way. A 10-win season is the expectation for this program and if Wisconsin finds a way to get there with this schedule, this is an incredibly good football team.

As for a spot in the Rose Bowl, that became a whole lot more challenging. The most likely and easiest path was for Ohio State to reach the College Football Playoff and to beat the Badgers in the conference title game. But the way the Buckeyes have played to start this season, there is a higher chance of the B1G missing the CFP than usual. Ohio State and Penn State should be the favorites to win the conference at this point, and it’s possible the B1G champion is the Rose Bowl representative.

They’ll enter November with a 6-2 record

In the last normal season in 2019, Wisconsin went 6-2 through the first eight games, but a 6-2 record in 2021 would be significantly more impressive considering what the Badgers have on their schedule through October. The three games to look at are the next two against Notre Dame and Michigan and the last weekend of October against Iowa.

Fortunately for the Badgers, none of these games are on the road. They’ll get Michigan and Iowa in Madison and Notre Dame at a neutral site, Soldier Field in Chicago. Wisconsin has advantages that could lead to three wins, but it’s tough to make that sort of prediction with the limitations we’ve seen from the passing game. Instead, they will go 2-1 in that stretch and where the wins and loss comes is up for debate. If a loss comes in any of the games against Illinois, Army or Purdue, then there’s a bigger issue.