The national conversation regarding Wisconsin and Iowa is very different as we head down the stretch run of the regular season. The Badgers were written off after a 1-3 start, while the Hawkeyes vaulted to No. 2 in the polls thanks to a a 6-0 start as one of the surprise teams in the country.

Wisconsin fell short of expectations early, while Iowa exceeded them. Still, very few differences separate the programs now. Both offenses leave plenty to be desired, while the defenses continue to play at a high level.

The main difference between the teams in 2021 is in turnover margin, where No. 9 Iowa (6-1, 3-1) is dominating and Wisconsin (4-3, 2-2) is struggling. While creating turnovers and taking care of the ball will require at least some skill, winning the turnover battle is something that cannot be relied on to win games.

When Iowa lost in turnover margin for the first time all season, it lost to Purdue 24-7 at home before last week’s bye.

This might come as a surprise given the records and rankings to this point of the season, but the Badgers are better offensively and defensively in yards per play through 7 games. When you combine that with the unpredictability of turnovers, Wisconsin will enter Saturday’s B1G West showdown as a favorite.

If the Badgers fall short in this matchup, their chances of contending for a conference championship become extremely low, and it’s probably because they lost the turnover battle.

Turnovers by the numbers

From the first snap of the 2021 season, Wisconsin’s defense has been one of the best in the country. In games against FBS opponents, the Badgers rank No. 2 in yards per play allowed, No. 1 in yards per rush attempt and No. 10 in yards per pass attempt. The only issue with this group has been its inability to create turnovers. But after forcing 5 turnovers against Purdue over the weekend, Wisconsin jumped from No. 122 in takeaways per game to No. 72.

Offensively, the Badgers are giving the ball to the opponent far too often. With 2 more turnovers on Saturday, the Badgers are ranked No. 128 in giveaways per game, turning the ball over 2.4 times on average.

The coaching staff already has limited confidence in the passing game, as Wisconsin quarterbacks have thrown 9 interceptions this season, which is why Graham Mertz threw the ball just 8 times against the Boilermakers. However, the Badgers fumbled 5 times in that game and fortunately recovered 3 of them. For as much as freshman running back Braelon Allen looks to be the next great Wisconsin back, he has put the ball on the ground 4 times in the 3 games in which he’s been a big part of the offense.

Overall, the Badgers rank No. 123 out of 130 FBS teams in turnover margin. Even with a 4-turnover performance its last time out, Iowa still ranks No. 1 in turnover margin because it leads the country with 3 takeaways per game.

With that much of a difference in turnover margin, it’s the reason Iowa is 6-1 and ranked No. 9 in the AP Poll and why Wisconsin is 4-3 and outside the top 25.

Taking advantage of turnovers

The Badgers forced 4 turnovers in their first 6 games, and the defense had plenty of chances to make game-changing plays, especially in losses to Penn State and Notre Dame. Wisconsin was much more opportunistic against Purdue, and we’ll see if that continues the rest of the season. If it does, the Badgers need to take advantage of those situations, because they were a mess in that area offensively on Saturday.

After a Caesar Williams interception set up Wisconsin from the Purdue 36-yard line, the Boilermakers scored a touchdown off of a Mertz fumble 3 plays later.

Late in the first half, John Torchio intercepted a pass and gave the Badgers a 1st-and-goal from the 1. After 3 rushing plays, Wisconsin settled for a game-tying field goal.

Collin Wilder ripped the ball away for a fumble recovery on the first drive of the second half at the Purdue 37, and the Badgers went backward to be out of field goal position and punted.

Wilder intercepted a pass, and the Badgers took advantage with 6 running plays that went 72 yards for a touchdown.

Nick Herbig recovered a fumble at the Purdue 21, and Wisconsin failed to gain any yards thanks to a Mertz personal foul penalty and settled for a field goal.

Wisconsin started 4 possessions inside the Boilermakers 40-yard line and on those drives, the Badgers did not gain yards on any of them, running a combined 14 plays for minus-22 yards and gaving up a defensive touchdown.

Good teams should take advantage of opponents’ mistakes, and Wisconsin’s offense will need to do a better job of capitalizing on turnovers to earn a huge win on Saturday.