Final thoughts (and a prediction) for Michigan-Penn State

Highly motivated, stubborn, enigmatic head coaches. Young, golden-armed 5-star quarterbacks navigating the pitfalls of fame. The 2 best defenses, in terms of yards allowed, in the country. College Football Playoff implications.

A lot will be on the line Saturday when 2 of the Big Ten’s 3 relevant teams meet for FOX’s Big Noon Kickoff showcase in State College, Pa.

Michigan at Penn State offers plenty of intrigue, even before the backdrop of a cheating scandal gets superimposed on the festivities.

The Wolverines (9-0, 6-0 B1G East) get the chance to prove their record and stats aren’t a mirage created by a Charmin soft first 2 months of the schedule. A team on a mission, they plan to roll Penn State and Ohio State on the way to a 3rd straight CFP berth, then finally break through and win the darn thing. Spygate be damned.

The Nittany Lions (8-1, 5-1) are on a mission too — James Franklin’s 10-year quest to find elite status. Step 1 would be an 11-win regular season, which requires a victory over 1 of the 2 other stalwart programs of the Big Ten. And that requires a win Saturday, which would be Penn State’s first over a top-5 team since a fluky upset of Ohio State in 2016.

Teflon Jim vs. Little Game James

The roles have reversed in the aftermath of the coronavirus pandemic. The head-to-head coaching battle stood at 3-3 back then, and Michigan’s Jim Harbaugh was on a short leash, told by his administration to take a pay cut or leave. Franklin had the upper hand, winning 3 of 4 vs. Harbaugh from 2017-2020.

Though he was a Michigan Man and an NFL success, Harbaugh had at least 3 losses in each of his first 5 years at his alma mater, and most fans weren’t giving him much slack. He was 0-5 vs. Ohio State, including blowout losses (by a combined 118-66) in Ryan Day’s first 2 seasons leading the Buckeyes in 2018 and 2019.

As stubborn as he is quirky, Harbaugh ate the temporary pay cut, shook up his staff and found better players. Perhaps Michigan became better at advance scouting too? Whatever is the case, Harbaugh isn’t admitting or apologizing for anything. And university president Santa Ono now seems squarely in his corner — for at least as long as that zero remains in the loss column.

So the Wolverines will march into Beaver Stadium on Saturday and dare the Nittany Lions or anyone else to mess with them or their head coach.

That leaves Franklin to wear the white hat, to take the good guy role. A cerebral 51-year-old who stresses love and family atmosphere, and enjoys discussing big-picture college football topics, he nonetheless has grown testy lately with those who won’t count 10-2 as a season worth celebrating. That’s life in the fishbowl, though, and he gets paid $8 million or so a year to put up with that crap. It comes with the territory when your team goes 1-9 vs. Ohio State, including back-to-back blown double-digit fourth-quarter leads in 2017 and 2018.

Now Harbaugh has gotten the upper hand the past 2 seasons, including a 41-17 thrashing last October. For Penn State fans, it’s become like watching Sisyphus endlessly pushing the boulder up the cliff. Or Lucy yanking the ball away before Charlie Brown can kick it. It gets old in a hurry.

Franklin has yet another chance to change the narrative Saturday. Or he can fall to 3-7 vs. Michigan dating to the year before Harbaugh took the helm.

Lions fans want to see the transformation Harbaugh has effected in Ann Arbor. Most don’t care about methodology at this point. They’re just hoping Franklin is smart enough to have changed the sideline signals.

Aesthetically pleasing, please

How much longer can the B1G sell the train wreck that is Iowa as must-see TV? When the offensively inept Hawkeyes (7-2) and Rutgers (6-3) — who meet this Saturday, by the way — count as your league’s next best and most intriguing teams behind the big 3, something has gone horribly wrong. From an outside perspective, only morbid curiosity has anyone watching Tuckered-out Michigan State, turnover-prone Nebraska, backup QB-led Wisconsin or the rest of the league’s dregs. Toilet bowl teams trying to make the Toilet Bowl at 6-6. Yuck.

Credit the defenses if you want, but Penn State-Ohio State, too, was more torturous than riveting.

Now we have this matchup, a battle of the top 2 defenses in the country.

If it’s low-scoring, let’s hope it at least looks like great defense more than inept offense.  And let’s hope Penn State OC Mike Yurcich brings something creative if bland doesn’t cut it against Jesse Minter’s defense. Another 1-for-16 performance on third down like against Ohio State would have even blue-bleeding Lions fans turning away.

The Stripe Out at Beaver Stadium provides one of the best stages in the country. Maybe B1G competition can live up to the hype for a change.

Otherwise, the league will remain the butt of jokes while the final CFP slots fill up with other Power 5 conferences’ 1-loss teams. Only perfection will then get a Big Ten team an invite.

Cue the 5-star QBs

Michigan’s JJ McCarthy has fully arrived, and Penn State’s Drew Allar isn’t far behind despite a dreadful outing against Ohio State.

In his second year as the starter, McCarthy is again near the top of the FBS statistical heap in completion percentage (75.7%, 3rd) and QB rating (188.68, 2nd). His counting stats would be greater if not for multiple fourth quarters spent watching from the sideline. Heisman voters know this and will factor it in. He could move back to the top of that race with a big game on this big stage.

Allar, starting this year after backing up Sean Clifford last year, has 20 TD passes and just 1 interception thrown this season. For his career, he has thrown for 24 TDs, run for 4 and turned the ball over just once in 19 appearances. He doesn’t run as well as McCarthy, but he did go for 39 yards on 4 carries last weekend. Plenty of upside remains. We’ll see if he can take another step in his last real challenge prior to bowl season.

Taking attendance

If Penn State doesn’t set a record for attendance, blame the noon start and the forecast that projects a high of 50 degrees. But Beaver Stadium will be rocking regardless, with close to 110,000. Maybe a few Michiganders — who know a thing or 2 about packing a stadium themselves –will make the 6-hour drive that skirts Lake Erie as it passes through the most dreadful state in the union.

Already this season, Penn State has drawn its 2nd largest crowd ever (110,830 for the White Out vs. Iowa) and the 5th largest and top home-opener crowd (110,747 for Allar’s starting debut under the lights). The Lions are averaging 108,579 spectators, more than 2,000 per game above listed capacity.

For most of September, Penn State was outdrawing Michigan. Alas, Michigan Stadium is called the Big House for a reason, and the perennial attendance champs are attracting 109,852 per contest, solidly above Penn State’s 108,579. Both those numbers are well above listed capacity.

Cheating? How many tickets did Connor Stalions buy? Let’s get the NCAA involved!

Breakout candidates

Three players from each team who could make a greater name for themselves with a big performance on the big stage an AP top-10 showdown provides:

MICHIGAN

Donovan Edwards: After rushing for nearly 1,000 yards last year, Edwards has just 232 on 3.1 per carry. But he had a team-high 173 last year against Penn State. The Lions will have to track him out of the backfield too, as he has 24 receptions for 225 yards on the year.

Semaj Morgan: The slender, blazing fast true freshman turned the corner on an end-around and dashed 44 yards for a score last weekend against Purdue. He has 12 catches for 155 yards and 2 TDs, and is also the team’s primary kick returner.

Josiah Stewart: The transfer edge rusher leads Michigan with 4.5 sacks, all coming in the past 5 games. The former Coastal Carolina record setter (12.5 sacks in 2021) is a smaller version (6-1, 245) of Ohio State’s JT Tuimoloau, who wreaked havoc on Penn State’s offense in the teams’ past 2 meetings.

PENN STATE

Nick Singleton: Like UM’s Edwards, Singleton is a name even most casual fans already know. The 5-star recruit topped 1,000 rushing yards last year as a true freshman. The numbers are down substantially this season though: 480 yards on 4.0 per carry with a long of 20. He was a home run hitter last season, and is the Lions’ top pass-catcher out of the backfield. He’s capable of busting one at any time, though it’s notable that he had just 19 rushing yards last year at the Big House.

Dante Cephas: The transfer WR from Kent State finally made a statement last weekend against Maryland, catching 6 balls and scoring his first 2 TDs as a Lion. Penn State desperately needed a secondary receiver behind KeAndre Lambert-Smith, and one might have emerged against the Terps.

Khalil Dinkins: Talk about your secret weapons! Dinkins has 3 catches this season as Penn State’s 3rd tight end — the first 2 went for TDs, the third for a first down. And all 3 came on 4th-and-short plays. Dinkins seems to have a knack for getting lost in the jetsam on one side of the field and emerging wide open on the other. It’s a great complement to the Lions’ short-yardage tush-push plays.

And a prediction … Michigan 38, Penn State 14

Harbaugh is right: Michigan’s success has to do with stallions, not Stalions. The Wolverines are winning with power and athleticism, not the sign-stealing insights of a since departed analyst.

McCarthy owns a 1-year leg up on Allar in experience and development, and Michigan owns such an advantage over Penn State virtually across the rosters.

Vegas is giving underdog Penn State 4.5 points, yet the ESPN Matchup Predictor gives the Lions a 50.7% chance of winning. Somebody’s algorithm is off. I myself liked the Lions’ chances way back in the preseason, but only in a bold predictions sort of way.

Now with 2 months worth of data — and an assignment that calls for a straight-up preview rather than a Lions-centric one — things look different.

A lot of wishful thinking would be involved in believing the Lions will prevail, such as:

• Michigan’s roster isn’t as deep or talented as last year, a fact obscured by their 9-0 romp over teams with a combined 37-44 record. Thus, the Wolverines are overrated.
• Penn State OC Mike Yurcich has something more creative to offer than he showed against Ohio State. He’ll need to hammer plays that work, not just move on to the next call on the play sheet. He’ll need to get all the weapons involved — Lambert-Smith and Cephas, the backs, the tight ends … maybe even dual-threat backup QB Beau Pribula. Basic and boring won’t cut it against the best scoring and total defense in the country.
• Penn State’s pass-rushers will have to prove themselves better than the best o-line they’re going to face, then have the discipline to not let McCarthy escape.
• Some good bounces and good fortune wouldn’t hurt, such as a defensive score not called back by a penalty.

From a Michigan point of view, it’s much simpler. The Wolverines just need to do what they do. Harbaugh cracked the code 2 years ago, and has the horses. Stallions they are.

A close game into the third quarter turns into a rout. The B1G remains as predictable as ever.

For those of you who know I’m a Penn State grad, I’m not saying I like it. I’d be glad to be wrong. But I’m probably not.