I gave my thoughts on the Week 12 schedule earlier this week.

Here are the games I’m targeting in Week 12.

(As always, the best price at the time of publication is listed in parentheses, but shop around at any of your preferred Ohio betting apps.)

  • Last week’s record: 3-2
  • Overall season record: 22-24

Colorado -11 vs. Utah (-105 via Caesars)

Utah has lost 5 straight. The Utes tried their third quarterback of the season in the game and against BYU and it yielded a mixed-bag performance alongside a season-ending injury for Brandon Rose. Utah lost tight end Brant Kuithe to a season-ending injury. Now, the offense turns back over to true freshman Isaac Wilson, who has 8 interceptions in 7 appearances. After shooting its best shot and still coming up short at home last weekend against BYU, this feels like a major letdown spot for the Utes. Colorado is the better team. Colorado has more to play for. Colorado’s Travis Hunter might have a Heisman moment in this game. And Colorado fans will sense an opportunity for their team to exact some revenge against a side that has whipped the Buffs in recent years.

Washington -4 vs. UCLA (-110 via ESPN Bet)

The Huskies are 5-0 at home this season and they’re 0-4 in true road games. Six of the Huskies’ 8 defensive interceptions this season have come inside Husky Stadium, and the pass defense ranks third nationally in EPA per dropback faced (Game on Paper). UCLA’s recent run of form has coincided with a hot streak from quarterback Ethan Garbers, who has a 4:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last 3 games. Garbers started the season with 9 picks in his first 5 appearances. I don’t think UCLA has the run game to punish Washington, which means it’ll be on Garbers to win it with his arm. In a bounce-back spot for UW and quarterback Will Rogers, I like the Huskies.

Penn State -28.5 at Purdue (-110 via bet365)

Using Game on Paper’s opponent-adjusted net EPA-per-play metric, Purdue is the third-worst team in the FBS. The Boilermakers have lost 8 straight and in their 3 outings against Ohio State, Oregon, and Notre Dame, they’ve been outscored 146-7. Both Will Howard and Dillon Gabriel diced up the Purdue secondary. Notre Dame ran for 362 yards. Andy Kotelnicki won’t have to show anything to put points on this defense.

LSU team total over 30.5 points (-120 via DraftKings)

Florida’s defense ranks 75th nationally in adjusted EPA per play allowed. Against Texas, the bottom fell out. Florida gave up 562 yards and 8.8 yards per play, as well as a 30.3% explosive pass play rate. And Florida ranks 82nd in Max Olson’s stop rate metric. Whether it’s Garrett Nussmeier regaining his form or the ground game finally finding its footing to give Nussmeier balance (both are equally plausible), LSU’s offense should be able to put points on the scoreboard.

Arkansas team total over 23.5 points (+105 via DraftKings)

When I think I’ve figured out the Razorbacks this season, they burn me. I’m backing the Hogs one more time because I feel like I have a pretty good idea of who Texas isn’t. The Longhorns are not elite. They’ve battered bad teams, beaten a good team by 3 points, and lost to a better team in a rout at home. A 49-17 margin against Florida does nothing for me when you consider what the Gators were missing all over the field. When we last saw Arkansas, the defense was getting shredded and the engine of the offense was running on fumes. Arkansas gave up 25 to Mississippi State and then 63 to Ole Miss. Taylen Green played hobbled against the Rebels. Ja’Quinden Jackson didn’t play at all. After a bye week, the Razorbacks should be in a better spot. And both Green and Jackson were listed as probable on the midweek availability report. Arkansas has to score to have a chance, and when healthy, the Razorbacks have had no problem scoring points. They’re 25th nationally in adjusted EPA per play (Game on Paper) and they’ve only been held under 24 points 3 times this season.