Editor’s note: Each week, this column will take a look at emerging trends throughout college football and how we can utilize those in the markets. The goal will be to look at things like player usage and team trends. How is Team X using certain personnel? How is Team Y performing in this specific area? 

Let’s dive in.

Missouri’s offensive start

Starting quarterback Brady Cook got 1 drive in the third quarter of Missouri’s opener against Murray State. He got the entire third quarter in Week 2 against Buffalo. Thus far, he’s been on the field for 116 snaps (not counting plays ruled dead because of penalties). On those snaps, Missouri has posted a 59.5% success rate.

Those successful plays have resulted in an average gain of 10.2 yards.

The Tigers have been on schedule with Cook at the controls, but they’ve only hit 4 plays that gained more than 20 yards. It’s not surprising to see the offense humming against the quality of competition Missouri has faced through 2 weeks, but it does force a double-take to see the lack of true explosiveness.

(Boston College, for reference, had 4 plays that gained more than 20 yards in its opener against Florida State.)

Is there any reason for concern with Brady Cook’s start? He had a 54.3 QBR in Week 1 and then an 80.8 QBR in Week 2. Cook has only attempted 7 passes of more than 20 air yards, and he has only hit 1 of those. He hit for 47% on 20-plus passes last season, with those plays consisting of roughly 17% of his pass diet. Jalen Milroe and Jayden Daniels were the only eligible SEC quarterbacks with a better PFF grade on 20-plus pass attempts last year.

Some of this (most of it?) might best be attributed to a vanilla approach against inferior competition. Cook has missed a couple you’d expect him to hit. But this is an area to watch against Boston College.

DJ Uiagalelei was 3-for-5 passing downfield against Boston College. He just couldn’t hit the intermediate stuff. Boston College kept FSU off schedule all day. Duquesne hit 1, but it also threw an interception on a shot attempt. The Eagles have blitzed on 41% of dropbacks through the first 2 games.

Nebraska is getting home with base fronts… for now

Through its first 2 weeks of the season, Nebraska’s defense has been stout. The Blackshirts have allowed 17 total points and directly scored 9 — a pick-six and a safety. The defense has 4 takeaways, a field goal block, 19 tackles for loss, and 8 sacks. Opponents are 7-for-24 on third down and have been to the red zone only 3 times (with 1 touchdown).

This was one of the most efficient defenses in the country a year ago. Nebraska is getting the job done early on in 2024 because its defensive front is feasting. NU has blitzed on a Big Ten-low 7.6% of dropbacks but produced pressure on nearly 34% of all dropbacks. Defensive coordinator Tony White didn’t send a single blitz in the Week 1 win over UTEP, then sent extra defenders on 31% of Shedeur Sanders’ dropbacks in Week 2.

Nebraska got home for 6 sacks, completely overwhelming what appears to be another bad Colorado offensive line.

And that’s the rub. NU has faced 2 bad offensive lines to open the season. Colorado has had a protection issue in every game under Deion Sanders, but NU clearly wanted to make the CU quarterback feel the heat.

Does Nebraska go back to more of a base look in Week 3 against Northern Iowa? Or does it continue turning up the pressure? The Huskers are rolling on both sides of the football and have a chance to create some real momentum in the program for the first time since, what, 2014?

Does Michigan have any answers on offense?

Michigan averaged 0.582 points per play throughout its national championship-winning season last fall. So far this season, Michigan is averaging 0.359 points per play.

Some other offensive metrics, compared to the previous season:

  • rushing yards per attempt: 4.5 in 2023, 4.0 in 2024
  • explosive run rate: 11.5% in 2023, 8.8% in 2024
  • passing yards per attempt: 8.9 in 2023, 5.4 in 2024
  • explosive pass rate: 14.1% in 2023, 8.3% in 2024
  • third down conversion rate: 42.7% in 2023, 30.4% in 2024
  • red zone trips per game: 4.4 in 2023, 1.5 in 2024

Nothing has been easy. There’s little down-to-down efficiency and no downfield threat from the pass game to bail the offense out when it gets behind the chains. Davis Warren has 3 interceptions and only 2 passing touchdowns in 2 games. The coaching staff seems terrified of the idea of Alex Orji throwing the football (12 total snaps, 2 dropbacks).

Kalel Mullings — a fifth-year converted linebacker — has taken the RB1 job from a guy who made a video game cover this offseason. Donovan Edwards has a 37% success rate on his 19 carries so far and only has 1 rushing attempt that has gained more than 7 yards. Colston Loveland has been the only constant on offense.

So, what’s the solution?

“I want us to be a physical offense that’s detailed and can score points,” coach Sherrone Moore said on Monday. “For us to do that, we’ve got to be better running the football. I think we’re more consistent running the football, and when you get in games like (Texas), versus really good teams, when you get behind it becomes the throw game.”

Moore said the staff needs to simplify things and “make the packages smaller” on offense for a unit that isn’t grasping things the same way last year’s team did. Michigan isn’t just missing JJ McCarthy’s arm or Zak Zinter’s protection. This was always going to be a work in progress, but the lack of a threatening run game is discouraging.

Michigan faces Arkansas State on Saturday as a 23.5-point favorite (ESPN Bet). The Red Wolves have given up 6.2 yards per carry and 5 rushing scores through their first 2 games. They’ve been hit for 30-yard runs 3 different times.

“Obviously, not trying to run the ball 32 times in a row, but if it comes to that it comes to that,” Moore said.  for us, it’s really to keep us balanced, to make sure we can open up the lanes for the passing game.”

If Michigan can’t get it going in Week 3, it’s a bad sign.

Related reading: 10 college football ideas we’re buying or selling after Week 2

Does NC State have any hope on offense?

No notes, just a chart. Find the Wolfpack logo.

NC State got throttled in its Week 2 loss to Tennessee. Grayson McCall had only 104 passing yards and a pick on 22 attempts. The ground game produced 53 yards at 2.1 per carry (both adjusted for sacks). Tennessee had 13 tackles in the NC State backfield, constituting a quarter of the overall offensive snaps in the game for the Wolfpack.

The hope from NC State’s vantage point was that McCall’s experience would be a crutch for the offense to lean on in a big game away from home. He posted a 22.7 QBR in the loss. It was his second consecutive game with a sub-50 QBR to open his NC State tenure and the fourth in his last 6 appearances overall.

NC State hasn’t done enough to put him in good spots. The Wolfpack had negative rushing yardage in the first half against Tennessee and had only 79 rushing yards going into the fourth quarter against FCS Western Carolina in Week 1.

NC State plays Clemson on the road in 2 weeks and then faces an NIU team that just beat Notre Dame in South Bend. Syracuse looks tough. Georgia Tech on the road will be a challenge. With a defense that is still trying to find itself, NC State is one to fade in the ACC.

The other thing to consider here is that Tennessee might just have a championship-caliber defense.

Is Jaxson Dart the best Heisman bet right now?

FanDuel has the best price on a Dart-to-win-the-Heisman ticket right now at +950. After defeating Michigan on the road, Quinn Ewers has overtaken preseason favorite Dillon Gabriel as the new betting favorite to win the award.

(Nico Iamaleava is the favorite at Caesars, with +400 Heisman odds. That’s… interesting.)

Ewers and Miami’s Cam Ward are ahead of Dart at most major books. Carson Beck is right next to Dart.

The Rebels have scored 128 points in 2 games. Dart has thrown 54 passes and completed 47 of them (87%). Those 47 completions have gone for 795 yards. He leads all FBS passers who have played multiple games in completion rate. He leads all FBS passers in yardage. He leads all FBS passers in quarterback rating. He trails only Florida’s DJ Lagway in yards per pass.

Dart played only the first half in the 76-0 win over Furman in the opener, and the Rebels had a 38/62 run-pass split with him on the field. He played 3 quarters and a drive against Middle Tennessee in Week 2. Ole Miss had a 55/45 run-pass split with him on the field.

Given the talent on hand, the opportunity in front of him, and the schedule Ole Miss has, Dart is absolutely going to have a chance to win himself the Heisman. He already has 8 total touchdowns. He’ll have huge games in October and November that will have eyeballs from all over squarely fixed on him. Big outings and a Playoff berth would seemingly be enough to get him to New York City as a finalist.

Related reading: Heisman Watch following Week 2 of the season