Each week, we’ll be taking a look at the current College Football Playoff picture and the race to the 2024-25 National Championship. Who are the favorites to earn a spot in the 12-team field? Which teams are trending up? Who is fading? Last week’s picture can be found here. Let’s dive in.

(All odds via ESPN Bet)

Ohio State Buckeyes (-800 Yes/+400 No)

Trend: ⬆️ ⬆️ 

The Buckeyes have an off week (or work week, from the coaches’ perspective) in Week 3 after stampeding over Western Michigan, 56-0, in Week 2. The Broncos have looked like one of the worst teams in the FBS through 2 weeks, but that didn’t stop Ohio State from overtaking Georgia as the team with the shortest odds in the country to make the CFP. ESPN Bet’s number implies an 88.9% probability Ohio State makes the 12-team field. The Buckeyes were no doubt aided by Michigan laying an egg against Texas and Oregon looking shaky for a second consecutive week.

Georgia Bulldogs (-750 Yes/+450 No)

Trend: No change

Georgia saw no change to its odds after dispatching Tennessee Tech 48-3.

Texas Longhorns (-500 Yes/+340 No)

Trend: ⬆️ ⬆️ ⬆️

Texas was -260 to make the CFP a week ago. Oregon and Notre Dame were viewed as better shots to make the field than the Longhorns. Then UT went to Michigan and knocked around the defending national champions for 4 quarters. Texas had a 24-3 lead at the halftime break. And quarterback Quinn Ewers has now proven no road environment is too big or too loud for him. As things stand currently, Texas only has 2 more games against ranked opponents this season — Oklahoma and Georgia in back-to-back weeks in October.

Oregon Ducks (-310 Yes/+225 No)

Trend: ⬇️ 

Oregon has beaten FCS Idaho and Boise State by a combined 13 points in its first 2 weeks. The Ducks were expected to roll in Week 1, and even when they didn’t, they were still a multi-score favorite over the Broncos at home. The Ducks needed a last-second field goal to win.

Penn State Nittany Lions (-240 Yes/+180 No)

Trend: ⬆️ 

Penn State trailed Bowling Green at home at the half by 4 points but created just enough distance in the second half to win 34-27. The Nittany Lions have a resounding Week 1 win and an unimpressive Week 2 victory.

Ole Miss Rebels (-200 Yes/+160 No)

Trend: ⬆️ 

Arguably no one outside of Texas has made the most of its opening 2 weeks than Lane Kiffin’s Rebels, who have beaten Furman and Middle Tennessee a combined 128-3. Ole Miss has been focused to open the season, and ESPN’s Football Power Index gives it the second-best ranking in game control after 2 weeks. (Game control reflects how an average top 25 team would control games from start to end the way the given team has, per ESPN.)

Alabama Crimson Tide (-180 Yes/+140 No)

Trend: ⬆️ 

Alabama is 2-0 with 105 points scored on offense and 1 touchdown allowed on defense. The Tide rank 13th nationally in net EPA per play, per game on paper. While the Tide’s 42-16 win over South Florida was a bit misleading, don’t overlook the showcase in the final 6 minutes of the game; Alabama’s offense is exactly as potent as expected.

Miami Hurricanes (-150 Yes/+120 No)

Miami followed up a huge win in The Swamp with a 56-9 victory over Florida A&M. The Hurricanes were boring in Week 2, which is exactly what they needed to be.

Tennessee Volunteers (Even)

Trend: ⬆️ 

The Vols are up to fifth nationally in FPI, sixth nationally in SP+, and sixth nationally in Sagarin. In a neutral site clash with NC State in Week 2, Tennessee turned the football over twice and still managed a 51-10 beatdown of a ranked NC State team. The Vols have scored 120 points on offense and allowed 6 total points on defense.

Missouri Tigers (+160)

Trend: ⬆️ 

Mizzou is the first FBS team to begin its season with consecutive shutouts since 2019. Now, those opponents have been Murray State and Buffalo, but Missouri ranks seventh nationally in ESPN’s game control metric. The Tigers have the second-best average win probability in the nation, per FPI.

USC Trojans (+180)

Trend: ⬆️ 

The Trojans have done it with defense through the first 2 weeks of the season and made believers out of many. A week ago, FPI gave USC a 23.5% chance to reach the CFP. After a 48-0 victory over Utah State, the model gives the Trojans a 43.2% chance to make the Playoff now. Sportsbooks were a little more reserved in their valuations; USC was priced at +225 a week ago. The Trojans have a bye this week before traveling to Michigan on Sept. 21.

Utah Utes (+210)

Trend: ⬇️ 

Utah beat Baylor 23-12 in Week 2 to move to 2-0 on the season, but in doing so, quarterback Cam Rising injured his hand and left the game early. Rising’s status going forward is up in the air, with the Action Network’s Brett McMurphy reporting that he is unlikely to play at Utah State on Saturday. Utah hits the road again in Week 4 when it faces a ranked Oklahoma State team, then returns home on Sept. 28 to host a ranked Arizona team. Not exactly the best time to lose a starting quarterback. Isaac Wilson, expected to start in place of Rising if the senior can’t go, completed 4 of his 9 passes for 30 yards against Baylor. Utah didn’t score in the second half.

Clemson Tigers (+210)

Trend: ⬆️ 

Clemson rebounded from having its behind handed to it in Week 1 by dolling out a similar punishment in Week 2. The Tigers smashed App State at home, 66-20, thanks in large part to a 35-point first quarter. Quarterback Cade Klubnik missed only 2 pass attempts as he scored 7 total touchdowns. The Tigers are off in Week 3 and face NC State at home on Sept. 21.

LSU Tigers (+250)

Trend: No change

LSU is 1-1. It hits the road in Week 3 to face a South Carolina that is soaring after a huge win over Kentucky. The Tigers got 6 touchdown passes from Garrett Nussmeier in a Week 2 win over Nicholls, but they had just a 9-point lead at the halftime break and didn’t score in the fourth. On the season, LSU has only scored 3 points in the fourth quarter.

Kansas State Wildcats (+290)

Trend: ⬇️ 

The Wildcats won by 35 points in their opener but needed a second-half comeback to beat Tulane on the road in Week 2. The pass defense was exposed a bit, with Darian Mensah piling up 342 yards through the air in his second career start. K-State gave up 491 yards of offense and 21 first downs. The ‘Cats have a chance to make a much-needed statement against Arizona in Week 3.

Liberty Flames (+340)

Trend: ⬆️ 

The Flames are once again the Group of 5 team with the best odds on the board at ESPN Bet to make the CFP, and those odds are once again at odds with what ESPN’s power model projects. There are 9 teams from outside the Core 4 leagues who have a better chance of making the CFP, per FPI. In Week 2, the Flames went on the road and outscored New Mexico State 21-7 in the fourth quarter to win 30-24.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+360)

Trend: ⬇️ ⬇️ ⬇️ ⬇️

The difference a week can make. Notre Dame had the third-shortest odds of anyone in the FBS a week ago. ESPN Bet had the Irish priced at -350 to make the CFP. Now, the current price implies only a 21% chance to make the CFP. Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman said his team believed the hype after a 10-point win at Texas A&M in Week 1 and let it get to their heads. In Week 2, the Irish lost 16-14 at home to Northern Illinois. With no path to a top-4 seed, Notre Dame has to ace the eye test. A loss to NIU will be damaging no matter what happens the rest of the way.

Boise State Broncos (+360)

Trend: ⬆️ ⬆️ 

Despite a loss to Oregon in Week 2, FPI gives the Broncos of the Moutain West a better chance to make the CFP (26.6%) than teams like Notre Dame, Utah, Oklahoma State, Michigan, Memphis, and Liberty. The Liberty discrepancy is interesting. The Flames face App State on the road on Sept. 28 — the toughest game on their schedule. That game looks a bit different after Clemson thoroughly dressed down the Mountaineers. Liberty could run the table. Does Boise State’s showing in Autzen make up for the loss if a 12-1 Mountain West champ goes up against a 13-0 CUSA champ for the G5 spot? FPI thinks so, and Boise is certainly trending up (+450 last week).

Oklahoma Sooners (+425)

Trend: No change

FPI cut the Sooners’ Playoff chances in half after a close call against Houston, but the Worldwide Leader’s book is a little slower to take. OU scored 51 points in its opener and then won by 4 as a 4-touchdown favorite in Week 2. There are questions here, but nothing has really changed for the Sooners through 2 weeks in 1 important sense: their Playoff case will be made by what they do in league play. If Oklahoma beats several of the 5 top-10 opponents it plays in the SEC, no one will care that Houston was a 4-point game.

Louisville Cardinals (+425)

Trend: ⬆️ 

Jeff Brohm’s Cards are 13th in game control and seventh in average win probability. A 49-14 win over Jacksonville State in Week 2 featured complete domination. Louisville doubled up on Jax State in the first half and then pitched a second-half shutout. Per game on paper, Louisville is currently fifth nationally in net success rate. The Cards offer an interesting risk-reward proposition right now. They still have games against Notre Dame, Boston College, and Clemson all on the road, as well as a home game against Miami. A couple of wins and they’ve put together quite the résumé. Throwing a bet behind Louisville right now might not be the worst thing.

Texas A&M Aggies (+450)

Trend: ⬇️ ⬇️

Mike Elko’s squad rebounded from a 23-13 season-opening loss to beat McNeese State 52-10. Quarterback Conner Weigman threw for 125 yards and 2 scores on 11-of-14 passing. The ground game did the heavy lifting against an overmatched opponent, with 333 yards and 5 scores on 38 carries. Still, the loss to Notre Dame might be twice as damaging now after the Irish flopped in Week 2.

Oklahoma State Cowboys (+475)

Trend: ⬆️

The Cowboys scored a 39-31 double-overtime win over Arkansas at home in Week 2, but it did not look encouraging. Oklahoma State had a poor gameplan to open the game and was slow to adapt to what Arkansas was doing. As a result, the Razorbacks had a 21-7 lead at halftime. OSU rallied to score 18 points in the final 10 minutes of regulation to force overtime, but the result had more to do with Arkansas completely falling apart. Since 2020, there had been 337 previous games where a team had more than 550 yards of offense and had outgained their opponent by more than 200 yards. Those teams were 337-0. Arkansas is the first team to lose such a game since 2019. Oklahoma State is technically trending up, but patience is needed. The Pokes are 64th nationally in game control.

Memphis Tigers (+550)

Trend: ⬇️ ⬇️

Memphis beat North Alabama 40-0 in Week 1 and then blasted Troy 38-17 in Week 2. Through 2 weeks, Ryan Silverfield’s group is 19th nationally in net EPA per play, per game on paper. FPI also gives the Tigers a top-25 rank for game control.

Michigan Wolverines (+600)

Trend: ⬇️ ⬇️ ⬇️ ⬇️

Michigan dominated in Week 1 even though the offense was less than impressive, with a 97% postgame win expectancy from SP+. Michigan was equally dominated in Week 2 at home by Texas, with a 0.1% postgame win expectancy. The Wolverines have serious offensive problems that need sorting out and still have games against 3 teams all currently ranked in the AP top 11. A week ago, Michigan was +150 to make the CFP.