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Illinois will travel to Ann Arbor to face Michigan in a primetime Big Ten showdown on Thursday night.
Illinois is coming off of a disappointing loss over the weekend to Maryland, while Michigan earned perhaps its biggest win of the season on Saturday against Ohio State. Both programs will be eager to pick up a key victory in what figures to be a close game.
Let’s dig into this matchup:
Illinois vs. Michigan Betting Odds
Spread: Illinois -2.5 (ESPN Bet)
Total: Over/Under 153.5 points (ESPN Bet)
NJ, PA, WV, MI Must be 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Betting trends to know for Illinois
- Illinois is 8-5-3 against the spread
- The over is 9-7 in Illinois games this season
- Illinois is 2-0-1 against the spread on the road
- Illinois is 5-5-2 against the spread as a favorite
- Illinois is 3-1-1 against the spread in Big Ten games
Illinois has been solid against the spread so far this season. The Illini are 3-1-1 in their last 5 games, 4 of which came against Big Ten opponents. Illinois has also been profitable on the road this season, albeit in a small sample. This is the first time this season that Illinois will be a road favorite.
Betting trends to know for Michigan
- Michigan is 6-11 against the spread
- The over is 11-6 in Michigan games
- Michigan is 2-3 against the spread as an underdog
- Michigan is 3-5 against the spread at home
- Michigan is 2-4 against the spread in Big Ten games
Michigan had covered in just 1 of its previous 10 games before it handled business against Ohio State last week. It was perhaps Michigan’s most spirited effort of the season, and that is evident when looking at these trends. Fading Michigan in this spot has been profitable pretty much across the board so far this season, albeit with a relatively low sample.
3 notes for the game
Michigan is fresh off its biggest win of the season
Michigan has had a really tough season overall, but it earned its biggest win of the year last time out. The Wolverines beat rival Ohio State over the weekend thanks to a hot-shooting night that saw them go 12-of-23 from 3-point range. Prior to that win over the Buckeyes, Michigan had lost 5 straight games and was just 1-4 in Big Ten play.
How much can we glean from Michigan’s win given its outlier 3-point shooting game is a little bit unclear. Terrance Williams had a particularly strong (but unsustainable) performance, going 5-for-5 from beyond-the-arc. Dug McDaniel also out-performed his season-long percentages by making 3-of-6 attempts from 3-point range. However, the Wolverines are a strong 3-point shooting team — they rank No. 20 nationally in that category.
Michigan also benefitted from an outlier 3-point shooting game in the other direction from Ohio State. The Buckeyes went just 3-for-25 from beyond the arc despite being a solid 3-point shooting team (36.8% prior to the Michigan game). Jamison Battle, who was hitting 3-pointers at a 46.8% clip prior to facing Michigan, went just 1-for-8 from long range. Even with shooting luck in their favor (on both sides), Michigan still didn’t put the game away until the final minute.
Illinois is coming off of a puzzling loss and has some significant concerns
While Michigan is riding high ahead of this matchup, the Illini are not. Illinois lost to a mediocre Maryland team at home in its most recent game. The Illini shot just 32.8% from the floor in that defeat.
Illinois is a tough team to handicap off of advanced metrics right now because of the legal situation regarding Terrence Shannon Jr. Shannon was suspended from the program in late December after he was charged with rape in Douglas County (Kansas). Prior to being suspended, Shannon was leading Illinois with 21.7 points per game while shooting 51.4% from the floor and 40.8% from 3-point land.
With Shannon out of the lineup, Illinois has turned to Marcus Domask to be the team’s primary option offensively. Domask has delivered, scoring 32 against Northwestern, 26 against Purdue, 15 against Michigan State and 26 against Maryland. The question is whether or not Domask can keep up this lofty level of efficiency. His true shooting percentage over his last 5 games is 62.1% — a very good number. But in the 11 games prior to Shannon’s suspension, his true shooting percentage was just 50%. Given his career 56.6% true shooting percentage across 4 seasons at Southern Illinois, it seems likely that Domask’s recent efficiency hot streak is bound for some regression. When that inevitably comes, I have some concerns about what it will do to Illinois’ offense.
Shannon also had a huge impact on Illinois’ defense. The Illini are currently No. 3 nationally in 2-point percentage defense this season. However, that efficiency has dipped significantly without Shannon in the lineup. Prior to Shannon’s suspension, the Illini held opposing offenses to just 37.4% shooting from the field and 28.3% shooting from 3-point range. In the 5 games since the suspension, Illini opponents are shooting 42.5% from the field and 38% from 3-point range. That’s not a big enough sample to draw any sweeping conclusions, but it’s not a good sign for where things are headed in Champaign.
Brad Underwood vs. Juwan Howard
Illinois and Michigan have met 6 times since Howard took over as Michigan’s head coach before the 2019-20 season. The Illini have won all 6 of those matchups, and all but 1 of those contests were decided by multiple possessions. Three of those games happened in Ann Arbor, which is where these programs will meet on Thursday evening.
The last time these programs met was last March in Champaign, which turned into an instant-classic. Illinois won 91-87 in double overtime — a result that helped ensure Michigan would not reach the NCAA Tournament. However, neither of these teams resembles the squads that met just over 10 months ago. Neither team will have its 2 leading scorers from that game as well as several other key role players.
Still, it seems notable that Howard has never beaten Underwood — even with far more talented teams than the one he will field on Thursday night vs. the Illini.
1 pick for this game
Illinois -2.5. I faded Michigan last weekend against Ohio State, and I’m going back to the well again here. The Wolverines benefitted from outlier shooting performances in both directions against the Buckeyes, and I’m not expecting that luck to continue on Thursday night. Illinois should be the more desperate team after losing to Maryland over the weekend.
NJ, PA, WV, MI Must be 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Spenser is the news manager at Saturday Road and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.