B1G Monday Morning: Northwestern, ‘America’s sweetheart,’ is far from perfect but squarely in the College Football Playoff picture

In a sport increasingly dominated by high-flying offenses, a team that ranks 120th in yards per play isn’t supposed to be a contender. In a top-heavy sport where success is often dependent on star ratings, a team with just 2 bluechip players in its starting lineup (and only 4 on its roster) isn’t supposed to be a contender. A team that goes 1-8 in conference play the previous year isn’t supposed to be a contender.

So yes, Northwestern defies logic. This isn’t supposed to happen in college football, but after the Wildcats’ 17-7 win over No. 10 Wisconsin on Saturday, they are all but assured to win the Big Ten West. They are highly likely to go 8-0, with games against sub-.500 teams Michigan State, Minnesota and Illinois remaining.

Northwestern (5-0) is squarely in the College Football Playoff picture, and when the first rankings come out Tuesday, it projects to be inside the top 10. And why shouldn’t it be? The combined record of Northwestern’s 5 opponents to date is 10-9, and that’s probably going to get better. Iowa (3-2) is on a roll, Wisconsin (2-1) has been strong, Purdue (2-2) has Rondale Moore back and Maryland (2-1) looks like a team on the rise.

Of the 11 teams with greater than a 10 percent chance of making the CFP, according to ESPN’s FPI, only the teams that Northwestern has beaten have a combined winning percentage of over .500.

So while “America’s sweetheart,” as Paul Finebaum dubbed the Wildcats, has won its last 4 games by a total of just 26 points, it has played a more grueling schedule than the other contenders. Northwestern, which came in at No. 13 in the most recent AP poll, will likely climb into the top 10 in the coming weeks for the first time since 1995.

Even if Northwestern has as strong of a resume as anyone to this point, there will always be those who blanketly dismiss the program no matter how good it is. The Wildcats play a throwback style of football and never generate hype on the recruiting trail. ESPN analyst Joey Galloway not-so-lovingly described the the Wildcats as having “a bunch of Rece Davises out there running around” in a nod to their lack of athletes. As Michigan and Penn State — with their combined 91 bluechip recruits — have shown, winning on National Signing Day isn’t the ultimate determinant of success.

Still, the criticisms are understandable. There have been 11 games this season in which the winning team averaged less than 4 yards per play, and 3 of those have been courtesy of Northwestern, the latest of which was Saturday’s masterpiece against Wisconsin — in terms of flipping field position, that is. Northwestern punted 10 times on Saturday, which is the most by a winning team in 2020.

Northwestern isn’t a traditional power, obviously, so it will have to earn every ounce of respect it gets. But it’s not like this is completely random. The Wildcats won the West just 2 years ago (though that season was obviously tainted by losing to an Akron team that went 2-6 in the MAC).

While their strength (defense) isn’t what wins on the biggest stage of a sport that is more geared towards QBs, there’s no denying that what they are doing is sustainable. These are small sample sizes, but defensive coordinator Mike Hankwitz’s unit has held a Maryland offense averaging 40 points in its last two games to 3. Northwestern held a Wisconsin offense that came in averaging 47 points to 7.

The issue, as it typically is with Northwestern, is offense. The Wildcats had no ground game against Wisconsin and quickly realized they couldn’t run it, so they attempted 45 passes despite never trailing (their most passing attempts in over 2 years). Their 24 rushing yards on 23 attempts was the fourth-fewest rushing yards for a winning team this season. It’s something they absolutely have to get sorted out.

Peyton Ramsey is an above-average QB who has 28 career starts. Most encouraging is the developing connection he has with Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman, who has 181 yards and 4 TDs over the last 2 weeks after having 1 career TD before that, all the way back in 2017.

The Wildcats, fresh off their first top 10 win since 2011, improved their odds of making the CFP from 3.3 percent before Saturday to about 18 percent, per ESPN. They undoubtedly still face an uphill climb, as there is no path to the CFP that doesn’t go through Ohio State.

But for the first time, Northwestern is squarely in the CFP discussion, and deservedly so.

The first CFP rankings

There is plenty of intrigue surrounding the reveal of the first CFP rankings on Tuesday night. Ohio State figures to be third, behind Alabama and Notre Dame but ahead of Clemson, Florida and Texas A&M. Northwestern, as outlined above, will be near the top 10.

After that, it gets interesting. How high will Indiana come in? On the one hand, the Hoosiers are a great story and showed they are legit in going toe-to-toe with Ohio State at Ohio Stadium. On the other hand, the 4 teams that Indiana has beaten have a combined record of 3-15. Will the Hoosiers be ranked ahead of Northwestern? How the committee ranks those 2 teams will clue us in on what it values.

Wisconsin (2-1) is as compelling of a case study as any team in college football. The Badgers have only played 3 games, but they have been dominant in 2 of them. They have also overcome as much adversity as any team in college football, getting their starting QB hurt in the preseason, not being able to practice for nearly 2 weeks and missing a slew of key players in their last 2 games. The way the CFP committee views the Badgers in the initial rankings will be telling. How much do they take into account the abnormal circumstances of 2020?

Other than that, though, it may be a quiet night for the Big Ten. Iowa, on a 3-game winning streak, could climb into the committee’s rankings in the next few weeks but probably needs a little more time. Maryland needs to show more. The Big Ten has only 4 teams in the AP poll after starting the season with 6.

A chink in Ohio State’s armor

No. 3 Ohio State 42, No. 9 Indiana 35. The overwhelming concern from Ohio State after hanging on in the top-10 showdown is in the secondary. Is it enough of a worry to threaten Ohio State’s national title hopes? Probably. The tough part is that Ohio State’s schedule is so light this year that Indiana, which passed for a cool 491 yards on Saturday, is the only team really capable of challenging the Buckeyes, who have only Illinois, Michigan State and Michigan left on the schedule. That’s why it was so disappointing that Ohio State didn’t get a chance to face Taulia Tagovailoa and Maryland.

Anyways, this is clearly not the Ohio State defense of 2019 that ranked in the top 10 of virtually every major category. The Buckeyes allowed their most passing yards since 1985 and now rank 115th nationally in pass defense — an area they led the country in last season.

The good news is that modern college football is all about putting up as many points as possible and getting key stops on defense. LSU was by no means a staunch defense in 2019, twice allowing a team to pass for more than 400 yards and 3 times allowing over 500 yards of offense. But the Tigers improved throughout their national championship season on that side of the ball, limiting the high-powered offenses of Oklahoma and Clemson to under 400 yards in the CFP.

Can Ohio State do likewise? Of course. But as with anything in 2020, that’s going to be a challenge. As outlined above, Ohio State’s schedule the rest of the way is cake. And in the Big Ten Championship Game, the Buckeyes will face a Northwestern offense that ranks 120th in yards per play. The next real test for Ohio State will likely be in the CFP semifinals — and if it’s against Trevor Lawrence, Mac Jones or Kyle Trask, the Buckeyes should be very concerned.

At the same time, Ohio State held Indiana to minus-1 yard rushing, so at least it is excelling in one area. But we all know what the Buckeyes will be working on for the next month.

Phantom PI spoils Rondale Moore’s return

Minnesota 34, Purdue 31. The long-awaited return of Rondale Moore was spoiled by Purdue’s inability to get off the field (until late) and missed opportunities in the red zone. And also by a phantom pass interference call that prompted Fan Duel to refund the money of anyone who had Purdue (-3).

Even with backup QB Jack Plummer in for the injured Aidan O’Connell, Purdue’s offense with both Moore and David Bell looked every bit as good as one could’ve imagined, and it could pose problems for a team like Indiana that could be on the cusp of a premier bowl game.

It was a pleasant surprise to see Moore back out there. The junior missed the final 8 games of 2019, opted out to prepare for the NFL Draft, opted back in once the Big Ten came back and then sat the first 3 games for an undisclosed reason. All he did was rack up 15 catches for 116 yards, plus 3 rushes for 20 yards and a TD. If not for Purdue missing 2 field goals and getting hosed on the final possession, the Boilermakers would be leaving at 3-1 and surely thinking about what if Moore had been able to return against Northwestern the previous week.

But for now, let’s just hope we get to watch Moore play 5 more college games. He has a lot to gain, especially going against an Indiana secondary that leads the country in interceptions per game.

A sad state of affairs for Michigan

Michigan 48, Rutgers 42 (3 OT). The debut of Big Ten after dark was everything B1G fans imagined it would be. And every bit of a nightmare for Michigan, which avoided embarrassment by rallying from 17 down. Still, there shouldn’t be any celebrating for a Michigan program that needed 3 overtimes to beat the worst team in the Big Ten since it joined in 2014.

Change may be coming for Michigan in the offseason, but for now, the singular focus has to be about figuring out the path to the least embarrassment against Ohio State. Nearly losing to Rutgers is bad, but letting up 60-70 points to Ohio State would be far, far worse.

Cade McNamara, who has come on in relief of Joe Milton for 2 straight weeks and provided an immediate spark, deserves a long look as the starter.

MVPs

1. Michael Penix Jr. (Indiana)

It’s rare to see the most valuable player come from a losing team, but that’s how good Penix was against Ohio State in completing 27 of 51 for 491 yards and 5 TDs. His lone mistake was the pick-6 to Shaun Wade, but Penix was simply sensational.

2. Cade McNamara (Michigan)

The redshirt freshman saved Michigan from becoming even more of a laughingstock, coming in for Joe Milton with the Wolverines down 17-0. He completed 27 of 36 passes for 260 yards and 4 TDs, plus a rushing TD. He is likely to make his first career start against Penn State next week.

3. Master Teague (Ohio State)

What a welcome sight for Ohio State, which hadn’t quite found a groove in the run game without JK Dobbins. In rushing for 169 yards and 2 TDs on 26 attempts, Teague gave future opponents’ defensive coordinators something extra to worry about.

4. Ty Fryfogle (Indiana)

Fryfogle has come out of nowhere to become one of the best receivers in the Big Ten. After 7 catches for 218 yards and 3 TDs against Ohio State, Fryfogle is at 642 yards, which is 38 more than last season in 7 fewer games. Fryfogle had 1 career 100-yard game before this season and now has 3 straight, setting career highs each week.

5. Brandon Joseph (Northwestern)

Maybe this is a season-long achievement award, but Joseph deserves some props after nabbing his fifth interception of the season. The freshman leads the country in interceptions.

Honorable mention: Garrett Wilson (Ohio State), Mekhi Sargent (Iowa), Noah Vedral (Rutgers), Chase Brown (Illinois), Mike Epstein (Illinois), Jahan Dotson (Penn State), Giles Jackson (Michigan), Mohamed Ibrahim (Minnesota), Tanner Morgan (Minnesota), Rondale Moore (Purdue), Jack Plummer (Purdue), David Bell (Purdue)