Penn State-Purdue: B1G gives Fox a high-stakes barnburner under the Thursday night lights

It’s a fight for relevance, right off the bat. So much for easing into a season and letting young players get acclimated.

Afterthoughts to start the season, Penn State and Purdue take the stage under the lights tonight in West Lafayette. Relegated to “others receiving votes” in the preseason polls, both programs will be looking to make a statement and garner some respect.

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It should be one heck of a show, with Purdue orchestrating a Blackout at Ross-Ade Stadium and expecting to fill the joint to near its 57,236-seat capacity for the 8 p.m. ET kickoff. It’ll be the best matchup of the young season to date. ESPN will kick off Week 1’s primetime slate an hour earlier with West Virginia at No. 17 Pitt in the Backyard Brawl. But regional appeal aside, Fox has the better game — an inter-divisional Big Ten showdown with huge implications for both programs.

Pitt may have the Top 25 ranking, but it still plays in the ACC — and Kenny Pickett is now with the Steelers. When it comes to emerging star-power at quarterback, Purdue’s Aidan O’Connell is the new Pickett. After averaging 370.7 passing yards over Purdue’s final 9 games last season, O’Connell looks to gain further respect for himself and his program in his final college season. The former walk-on could be a major NFL prospect by the time he’s done, but first he’ll have to prove he can bring a new set of receivers along for the ride.

Penn State has its own name-brand QB in less-celebrated 4th-year starter Sean Clifford, who could become the Lions’ all-time passing yards leader before his final college season is done. A hot start for him would quell those in Nittany Nation clamoring for 5-star Drew Allar — recently announced as the No. 2 on the depth chart — to take over immediately.

Beyond the entrenched QBs, both programs face questions and doubts, hence Penn State starting at 29th in the AP poll and Purdue at 33rd. Thursday’s winner might jump back into the Top 25 by Week 2; the loser will face a long road to get there at all. The Lions are favored by 3 points.

The big winner Thursday night will be Fox. The B1G is taking care of the TV partners that are set to heap billions of dollars upon the league under the latest broadcast rights deal. The network already benefited from the B1G’s highly entertaining Nebraska-Northwestern game Saturday in Ireland. Tonight’s game features more highly regarded teams and at least as many good storylines. Fans across the country jonesing for an intriguing weekday evening matchup don’t really have anywhere else to go.

Purdue and Penn State probably would just as soon open up like Michigan, which has 3 nonconference cupcakes to start 2022. But the B1G needs a marquee matchup, and this one will be the best of the young season so far.

Fighting for respect

What does 6th-year Purdue coach Jeff Brohm have to do to get a little national love? Unranked? Really?!

The Boilermakers finished last year 9-4, trouncing Iowa when it was ranked No. 2 and Michigan State when it was No. 5 (AP). They finished the season with 3 straight wins, including an attention-grabbing 48-45 bowl victory over Tennessee. Their quarterback threw for over 500 yards in a game twice, including against the Vols. And yet Purdue hit the Top 25 only once, at No. 25, after the midseason victory over the Hawkeyes.

Apparently, poll voters aren’t sold on the Boilers, who lost superstar receiver David Bell and top defensive player George karlaftis off last year’s squad. They’re going to have to prove it.

“Our guys have a chip on their shoulder,” Brohm confessed in his Monday session with the media. “They all think they’ve been overlooked to a certain degree, and they’re out to prove themselves. They’re willing to put in the work to get it done. They love playing great opponents.”

Penn State enters this contest as a road favorite based on its history and greater recruiting prowess — and certainly not its recent results. Surely, many analysts think, the past 2 years of .500 football are an aberration, and the Lions should return to their 2016-19 form (42-11, 29-8 B1G) under 9th-year coach James Franklin. Back then, Penn State was the clear No. 2 in the B1G behind Ohio State, just a couple of excruciating 1-point losses to the Buckeyes from drawing even with them.

That seems oh-so far away now. The Lions lost 7 of their top 11 tacklers from last season and have had ongoing offensive line issues that became even more pronounced in 2021. The program seems in desperate need of a positive opening statement Thursday night.

Purdue storyline

O’Connell is the story for Purdue. Can he repeat last year’s heroics without his top 3 targets — Bell (NFL), Milton Wright (academics) and Jackson Anthrop (graduation)? The key returning pass-catchers are Broc Thompson and tight end Payne Durham. Transfers Tyrone Tracy and Charlie Jones — rescued for the receiving abyss that is B1G West rival Iowa — should flourish under Brohm.

But can O’Connell sync up with these new guys in 1 offseason, or will the Boilers have to take some in-game lumps to find that rhythm again? Penn State fields one of the better secondaries in the B1G, if not the country, led by safety Ji’Ayir Brown and corner Joey Porter Jr.

We’ll find out come Thursday, because Brohm wastes little time running the ball. Purdue has been last in the B1G in rushing the past 3 years, averaging less than 85 yards per game each time.

A win would kick-start Purdue’s quest for its first B1G West crown and some attention from outside of Indiana.

Penn State storyline

The Lions finished next to last in rushing in the B1G last year, ahead only of Purdue. Unlike Purdue, though, Penn State actually cares. Before its offensive line disintegrated in 2021, Penn State had finished in the top half of the league in rushing yards per game for 5 straight seasons.

Only 2 starters return to a line that, along with its run-blocking struggles, gave up a league-worst 34 sacks. The other 3 projected starters are extremely green. The coaching staff insists renewed focus on line play and changes to the offensive scheme will yield results. Fans are holding their breath and hoping.

Playing on the road in its B1G opener for the 7th straight season, Penn State at least doesn’t face the best defense in the country, like it did last year at Wisconsin. Purdue finished 6th in the conference in total defense last year, its best ranking since 2006. It returns 7 starters, but not the best 2 — edge rusher Karlaftis (5 sacks) and linebacker Jaylan Alexander (113 tackles).

If Penn State’s line is going to gain some traction and some confidence, this should be the time to do it. Clifford has a great supporting cast returning, a key new transfer receiver in Mitchell Tinsley and a bunch of highly-touted true freshman backs and receivers climbing the depth chart. But it all starts up front.

Prediction (with disclaimer)

First, the disclaimer: I am a Penn State grad and the primary Penn State writer for this website. Whether that makes me more loving or critical of the Lions varies with my mood.

But I do see Penn State extending its winning streak in the series to 10 games and improving to 16-3-1 all-time against Purdue. In the most recent matchups, the Lions won 35-7 in 219 and 62-14 in 2016. A disparity has existed between these programs, and I don’t think the gap has completely gone away. (Though it sure has tightened.)

Penn State plays strong on the back end on defense and has speedy linebackers for underneath pass coverage, including converted safety Jonathan Sutherland. New DC Manny Diaz has some young edge rushers out to make names for themselves. O’Connell and his new receivers will get a baptism by fire.

Penn State is stacked on offense, except for up front. That’s what gives Purdue a fighting chance at its first win in the series since 2004, and why this matchup should wind up much closer than the past 2.

Penn State 31, Purdue 27

Luke Glusco

Luke Glusco is a Penn State graduate and veteran journalist. He covers Penn State and occasionally writes about other Big Ten programs and topics. He also serves as the primary copy editor for Saturday Tradition.