Ohio State might have legitimate excuses for its losses the past 2 years in its annual post-Thanksgiving matchup with Michigan. After all, the Wolverines might have known what was coming on a majority of the play calls.

The Buckeyes will have no such excuse this time around, though. The playing field at Michigan Stadium will be level, figuratively speaking, when the 118th rendition of this border-states rivalry kicks off at noon Saturday.

If Michigan is able to decode the Buckeyes’ play signals, shame on Ryan Day and his staff. They’ve had fair warning and plenty of time to adjust.

With everything on the up-and-up, Michigan can erase some of the national stigma with which it has been stained. In a sense, this second straight meeting of undefeated teams in The Game decides not only this season’s Playoff fate for each, but how the past 2 Big Ten seasons will go down in history.

Michigan clearly has looked like the premier team in the B1G while winning 29 straight regular-season games and 23 straight in conference (including B1G championship games). In fact, if it hadn’t gagged away a late October game at Michigan State in 2021, the streaks would stand at 37 regular-season wins overall and 28 vs. the B1G.

Ohio State hasn’t been knocked back like this since the turn of the century. It last lost 2 straight to Michigan in 1999-2000.

These results seem a little, shall we say … suspicious. And a month or so ago, the world found out that they are suspicious. A month or so ago, the college football world learned the name Connor Stalions, the one-time Michigan football volunteer turned paid analyst in 2022. It seems this colorful character led an espionage operation to steal sideline signals. Allegedly, as early as 2019, Stalions was paying proxies to attend future opponents’ games and videotape assistant coaches relaying play calls to the field.

Exactly how often and how well Michigan made use of information gleaned in this fashion is not known. It is also possible that other programs do similar things but are better at avoiding NCAA detection, as it appears Stalions is not the most clever or cautious of Michigan Men.

Whatever the case, Michigan cheated. It has admitted as much, not in words but in its actions. It allowed Stalions to resign and fired linebackers coach Chris Partridge. The university also imposed a 3-game suspension on Jim Harbaugh and acquiesced to another 3-game ban of its 9th-year head coach — levied by the B1G — that ends after Saturday’s game.

The first suspension came in the wake of NCAA charges of on-campus and off-campus recruiting and coaching violations during the COVID-19 dead period. Those seem picayune given the Wild West nature of player procurement in the NIL/portal age. It’s also not clear how effective the sign-stealing was, if at all.

But here’s the counterargument: Prior to 2021, Ohio State had won 15 of 16 in the series and 17 of 19 dating to 2001. Harbaugh was on the hot seat after losing The Game 5 straight times. His teams got pasted by the Buckeyes 62-39 in 2018 and 56-27 in 2019, then bailed out of The Game in 2020. Michigan wasn’t even the B1G’s No. 2 team during most of Harbaugh’s early tenure.

So what changed? Recruiting and coaching? Or something more nefarious?

If the preceding trend resumes, Michigan’s run of glory will be discounted, big time.

On the other hand, if the Wolverines post a 3rd straight double-digit beatdown of the Buckeyes, Ryan Day will be viewed as the one presiding over a house of cards. Despite a 56-6 record, Day has only beaten Michigan once, in 2019 — his first full season at the helm. Lose Saturday, and he’d be the first OSU coach since John Cooper circa 1995-97 to lose 3 straight to TTUN.

Minus Michigan’s cheating, Day has no excuse for getting dominated in the series. He’s had the higher-ranked team the past 2 years and will again Saturday. He’s had the higher-rated recruiting class — No. 1 in the B1G and top 5 in the nation — every year since 2020. If cheating isn’t the explanation, Day doesn’t have one:

  • 2022 — No. 3 Michigan 45, No. 2 Ohio State 23 (both teams entered at 11-0)
  • 2021  — No. 6 Michigan 42, No. 2 Ohio State 27 (both teams entered 10-1)

As Saturday approaches, advantages seem to be stacking up for the No. 2 Buckeyes.

  • They appear to be healthier. (More on that front later in the week.)
  • They have the hotter of the 2 quarterbacks. Over the past 3 weekends, Kyle McCord has completed 72.4% of his passes for 736 yards and 8 TDs, with 1 INT, while Michigan’s JJ McCarthy has completed 63.2% for 536 yards, with no TDs and 1 INT.
  • RB TreVeyon Henderson — 1 of 7 5-star recruits in Day’s 2021 class — has topped 100 rushing yards in 4 of his past 5 appearances and is averaging 6.7 yards per carry on the season. Michigan’s Blake Corum is gaining 4.9 per carry with only 2 100+ games all year.
  • Marvin Harrison Jr. will be the best player on the field.
  • JT Tuimoloau, another of the 2021 5-star guys, might be the best defensive player on the field.
  • Ohio State will have its head coach and entire staff from Day 1 of the season working the game.

If Michigan overcomes all and prevails with acting head coach Sherrone Moore leading the way, it’ll have won more than The Game. It’ll have won the narrative. Look, the Wolverines would have coasted to 9-0 against their soft schedule without any ill-gotten scouting data. Penn State, Maryland and Ohio State had ample time to adjust. Michigan’s record this year is legit, even if the past 2 wins, both on the road, looked a bit shaky.

With a win, Michigan will prove the tide has turned in the Big Ten. Legitimately. No one will be running Harbaugh out of Ann Arbor. (Though he might exit gracefully of his own accord.) The Wolverines and their fans will gladly embrace the villain role and prop up their favorite alum as the top-line anti-hero. Let the Bucknuts cry as Day grasps for answers!

At that point, nothing the NCAA could do short of a Playoff ban would slow the Wolverines’ roll.

However, if Ohio State wins as a 3.5-point underdog at Michigan Stadium, the past 2 results of The Game will be called into question. And even more so if the Buckeyes dominate, which was the pattern just a few short years ago.

One of these programs is going to look bad in the wake of Saturday’s result. And that’s as is should be.

One of these programs will earn a date with Iowa (Dec. 2 in Indy) for the B1G title and — with a win over the Hawkeyes —  a spot in the final 4-team version of the Playoff. That also is as it should be.

Either way, the fan bases will go on bickering with each and claiming the high ground. But only one side will own it. That’s why they play The Game, after all.