Week 5 Big Ten picks against the spread
Week 5 Big Ten action is here, and it’s time to get into some great picks against the spread!
We are squarely into the conference schedule; all 8 games are conference games.
Before we get there, it’s worth revisiting Week 4 and my entire record through the nonconference slate. In fact, my performance last week was particularly strong with an 8-3 record, boosting my season total to 5 games above .500 as we hit conference action.
The biggest whiffs included Ohio State not quite covering the 39.5 points, in large part because the Buckeyes gave up a pair of first-half touchdowns. Jim Knowles confirmed Tuesday that the team did not give out a Defensive Player of the Game for the Week 4 performance.
I also had USC winning and covering the 5.5 points on the road, a line that gave me a bit of pause entering the week. Had Lincoln Riley been more aggressive with a 4-point lead and getting the ball back with 5 minutes in the game, we’d be having a different conversation, but props to Michigan sticking to its ground-and-pound, mistake-free identity and pulling it out.
Overall, my strategy when it comes to picks is to get out of nonconference games with a .500 record with a chance to make up ground in the league slate. This year, I’ve provided myself a solid cushion entering Week 5. Let’s hope I don’t blow that.
Now, onto the Week 5 picks!
All lines are featured via bet365.
Hammer’s Week 4 results: 8-3 ATS (Season record: 26-21)
Washington at Rutgers (-2.5)
- PICK: Washington +2.5
I was equally impressed and disappointed by Rutgers’ showing on the road against Virginia Tech. I think Friday night’s game between the Huskies and Scarlet Knights will be a good one, but Washington isn’t turnover prone with Will Rogers under center, something that Greg Schiano often lives off of. If penalties crop up like they did for Washington vs. Washington State, this will be a different story.
Maryland at Indiana (-7)
- PICK: Maryland +7
Fans accustomed to old-school Big Ten football might be in for a rare treat in this one. I think Indiana probably wins outright, but this will be by far the toughest offense the Hoosiers have faced to date. It’s possible neither defense gets many stops. Be prepared for points in bunches and plenty of entertainment.
RELATED: Can Maryland deliver an underdog performance on the road? Get in on the latest Terp odds with our MD sports betting links and apps.
Minnesota at Michigan (-9)
- PICK: Michigan -9
I know Michigan is challenged when it comes to throwing the ball, but I do not know if Minnesota can cross midfield against Michigan’s defense. It’s possible the Golden Gophers get close enough for a few long-range field goals from Dragan Kesich’s mighty leg. Still, I don’t think Minnesota has any serious answer for any facet of Sherrone Moore’s offense or any way to challenge that defense.
RELATED: Michigan’s national title odds slipped after a loss to Texas, but the Wolverines opened their B1G slate with a crucial win over USC. Fans can track the latest odds via Tradition’s Michigan sportsbook apps.
Nebraska (-10) at Purdue
- PICK: Nebraska -10
Nebraska wad dealt a rough 1-score loss at home to Illinois in Week 4. Fortunately, the Huskers get a great bounce-back opportunity, even on the road. Purdue is tied for last in the B1G with a -5 turnover differential while Nebraska is decidedly positive at +4 on the season. The Boilermakers are also last in the conference for defense at 34.7 points per game, so look for Nebraska to get back on track in a blowout.
Wisconsin at USC (-16)
- PICK: Wisconsin +16
I’m still high on USC, and that hasn’t shifted after last week’s loss to Michigan. Don’t look for the Trojans to slip up in Week 5, but some key injuries — and Wisconsin having a Week 4 bye — probably keeps this one closer than 2 touchdowns. That line — 16 points — is just a bit rich, even though the Badgers have been offensively challenged recently.
Ohio State (-23.5) at Michigan State
- PICK: Ohio State -23.5
Aidan Chiles can turn into a great quarterback for Michigan State, but he has to learn how to limit turnovers. The problem? This week he’s damned if he does and damned if he doesn’t. Ohio State’s pass rush is going to pile up some sacks or force Chiles into errant throws, and I don’t see the Buckeyes’ offense having challenges in the first road game of the season.
RELATED: Ohio State is still the favorite in the updated Big Ten Championship odds ahead of the B1G opener. Track the action all season long and get in on the odds with Tradition’s OH betting apps.
Illinois at Penn State (-18)
- PICK: Illinois +18
Penn State is still one of the top teams in the country on my list, but Illinois is not a fluky 4-0 team. Wins over Kansas and Nebraska are very legitimate, especially with the way the Illini are protecting the football. (Illinois is tied for 1st in the B1G with a +7 turnover differential while Penn State is tied for 8th at +2.) Penn State will try to speed up Luke Altmyer, who has yet to throw a pick this year, but Illinois will try to get the ball out of his hands quickly to counteract the pass rush. It should be a good game, and 18 points is a bit of a stretch, even with the Nittany Lions winning outright.
Oregon (-25.5) at UCLA
- PICK: Oregon -25.5
UCLA gets the Ducks at home, but the road trip won’t bother Oregon, and it doesn’t even include a time zone change. Oregon really looked like it was figuring things out vs. Oregon State, mainly cutting down on costly penalties and protecting Dillon Gabriel. Considering the Bruins are averaging 14.33 points per game (and none of the teams they’ve faced has an elite defense), it’s hard to pick against Oregon even with the big number in play.