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Breaking down Caitlin Clark’s player props for WNBA debut: Full analysis, picks
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Caitlin Clark will officially begin her WNBA career on Tuesday night.
Clark’s Indiana Fever will face off against the Connecticut Sun at 8 p.m. ET on Tuesday. Clark’s first game is perhaps the most highly-anticipated WNBA debut in league history.
Several online sports books are currently offering a variety of props for Clark’s season-opener. Here’s a breakdown of Clark’s betting markets for Tuesday night’s game:
Caitlin Clark points prop
Where to bet the over: BetMGM | 20.5 points | -120
Where to bet the under: DraftKings | 21.5 points | +100
Clark scored a total of 33 points in 2 preseason games, as she shot 10-of-27 from the field in those contests. A remarkable 22 of those 27 shot attempts came from behind the 3-point line, with Clark nailing just 7 of them.
Even with the poor field goal percentage, Clark was still relatively efficient thanks to a 6-for-7 performance from the foul line.
On one hand, it’s hard to imagine Clark continuing to be inefficient from the field — especially from beyond the arc. However, she will face one of the WNBA’s best defenses in her debut. Last season, the Sun posted a defensive rating of 98.8 — second only to the eventual-champion Las Vegas Aces. Led by Alyssa Thomas, the vast majority of the Sun’s core in 2023 is set to return in 2024.
I think the value here is on the under, particularly with the price being offered by DraftKings.
PICK: Caitlin Clark under 21.5 points
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DraftKings States: AZ, CO, CT, DC, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, NH, NJ, NY, NC, OH, OR, PA, TN, VT, VA, WV, WY
RELATED: Interested in betting on Caitlin Clark’s season-long props? Here’s Saturday Tradition’s breakdown of the market for props such as Clark’s 3-point shooting, her MVP odds and more.
Caitlin Clark assists prop
Where to bet the over: Caesars | 6.5 assists | -110
Where to bet the under: BetMGM | 6.5 assists | +110
While Clark did struggle to score efficiently during the preseason, her passing appears like it’s going to translate immediately. Clark dished out 6 assists in the Fever’s preseason finale last week in a win over the Dallas Wings.
Clark’s co-star with the Fever, Aliyah Boston, spoke about Clark’s passing prowess earlier this preseason.
“I think you guys can see it, when you come in and watch practice, Caitlin’s ability to pass that ball, Caitlin’s ability to get into the post at the right angle … We know that if we run, hey, Caitlin’s going to find us and we’ve got to make the right play,” Boston said.
More recently, Clark emphasized her passing ability after her 6-assist performance against Wings last week.
“I don’t think I was that effective, honestly,” Clark said, speaking about her game as a whole. “I thought more than anything I did a really good job of passing the ball. Finding my teammates on open rolls, slips. I found [Katie Lou Samuelson] a couple times for a couple threes.”
It seems clear that Clark’s playmaking will be the part of her game that is emphasized, at least in the early-going of her WNBA career — especially if her 3-point shots aren’t falling.
It certainly helps that Indiana has other offensive weapons on the floor. In 2023, the Fever had the 5th-best offensive rating in the WNBA despite coming in dead last in assist percentage. They needed a talented point guard to distribute the ball to players like Boston, Samuelson, NaLyssa Smith and Kelsey Mitchell. That’s a role that Clark is certainly capable of filling as a rookie in 2024.
PICK: Caitlin Clark over 6.5 assists
Caitlin Clark 3-pointers prop
Where to bet the over: DraftKings | 3.5 made 3-pointers | -140
Where to bet the under: FanDuel | 3.5 made 3-pointers | +122
Clark is of course known for her 3-point shooting, but she also got buckets from other areas of the court while at Iowa. Clark posted a 3-point attempt rate of 60% as a senior with the Hawkeyes — something that should be more representative of her WNBA shot diet than her 82% 3-point attempt rate across 2 preseason games.
Clark struggled from 3-point range in the preseason, going 7-of-22 from distance in a pair of games. Despite the low percentage, that level of volume is a positive sign if you want to take the over on this prop.
It seems plausible that Clark will rely more on her 3-point shot early on in her WNBA career as she deals with the increased physicality at the professional level. She rarely worked in the mid-range with the Hawkeyes, instead choosing to work from beyond the arc or near the rim. If Connecticut is able to take away Clark’s looks at the rim in her debut, that would leave only the 3-point line as a viable source of scoring for Clark on Tuesday night.
I don’t think Clark will continue to shoot so poorly from long range, and I think the former Iowa Star will be ready to meet the moment in her WNBA debut. It’s also worth noting that FanDuel has priced Clark to make 5+ 3-pointers at +178 in her debut.
PICK: Caitlin Clark over 3.5 made 3-pointers
New Customers: Bet $5, Get $200 in Bonus Bets!
DraftKings States: AZ, CO, CT, DC, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, NH, NJ, NY, NC, OH, OR, PA, TN, VT, VA, WV, WY
Spenser is the news manager at Saturday Road and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.