Hammerin' the B1G: How JJ McCarthy stacks up with recent 1st-round QBs from the B1G

JJ McCarthy is set to enter the NFL, and Michigan’s title-winning quarterback has reached the level of a certified lock to be a first-round pick Thursday night. He’s even being projected by many places as a potential top-5 pick when proceedings begin.

McCarthy’s odds of going as high as No. 2 overall are surging coming out of the weekend, and he’s one of the biggest winners of the draft cycle this year. A number of things need to fall just right for McCarthy to go that high, but he will be one of the players to track when the draft begins.

When McCarthy is inevitably selected in the first round, he will be the Big Ten’s 4th first-round quarterback in the last 6 seasons. That extremely short list of QBs consists of a trio of Ohio State players in Dwayne Haskins, Justin Fields and CJ Stroud.

How did those players fare early on, and what should fans expect from McCarthy? Let’s dive in.

The gold standard

The only player from the Haskins, Stroud and Fields trio with a winning record is Stroud. And for good reason.

The reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year went 9-6 while throwing over 4,100 yards with 23 touchdowns and just 5 interceptions for the Houston Texans. He completed 63.9% of his passes while leading Houston to a playoff appearance.

The passing game for Houston was set up well with Nico Collins, Tank Dell and tight end Dalton Schultz giving Stroud some key pieces to work with. However, the ground game for the Texans was another story, giving Stroud a true test against defenses when forced to be one dimensional.

Even for those with an optimistic outlook for McCarthy, it’s hard to envision him stepping into the league with the kind of immediate success that Stroud achieved, and part of that goes back to the collegiate body of work.

Stroud entered the NFL after serving as the focal point of Ohio State’s offense for 2 seasons, throwing for over 8,100 yards and 85 touchdowns as a prototypical prospect for the position. Meanwhile, McCarthy has not come close to that level of production and usage in college.

The work in progress

Justin Fields entered the NFL as the No. 11 overall pick in the 2021 Draft. To get him, the Chicago Bears traded up with hopes to turn the former Ohio State star into their QB for the future.

The full tale of Fields’ time in Chicago is a mixed bag, and he’s now on the Pittsburgh Steelers and fighting with Russell Wilson to be a starting QB. Some of that has to be pinned on Fields with Chicago going 10-28 in games he started, but there was some progress from the 2022-23 season.

Coming into the league, there were always some questions about Fields’ true potential to be a starting QB. He was a dynamic dual-threat at the college level, but he was widely viewed as a work in progress entering the NFL.

That assessment has played itself out, and the tale of Fields’ early career is a reminder that team fit matters, even for players with immense physical attributes. The Bears have historically struggled with young QBs, and Fields was thrust into an unwinnable situation.

The unfinished story

Dwayne Haskins will always be remembered not just as a player but as a person gone too soon after his tragic passing in the spring of 2022. He was just 24 at the time.

At the time, Haskins’ on-field playing career had not gone as planned. He did not see action during the 2021 season with the Pittsburgh Steelers after compiling a 3-10 record as a starter from 2019-20 with Washington.

As an NFL QB, Haskins completed just 60% of his passes with 14 interceptions as he experienced a steep drop-off from Ohio State to the NFL. In the 2018 season, Haskins set Buckeye records while completing 70% of his passes and throwing for 50 touchdowns to just 8 interceptions.

Where JJ McCarthy fits in

JJ McCarthy has a strong toolbox, but the main things he has continually drawn high marks about throughout this process are his IQ and intangibles. That’s not a bad thing, but that likely puts him somewhere between Stroud and Fields in terms of recent Big Ten QBs.

Stroud arguably entered the NFL as the most complete passer from the Big Ten we’ve seen in the history of the conference. His size, arm talent and leadership separated him from the pack, and a healthy argument exists that Stroud always should have been the No. 1 pick in last year’s draft.

McCarthy does not have that kind of makeup, and he never would have in Harbaugh’s system. However, questions about his arm strength and overall size remain legitimate.

No one can take Michigan’s team success away from McCarthy, but there are some performances you simply do not expect from a franchise QB. His 3 interceptions against Bowling Green, not completing a pass in the second half against Penn State, completing just 52% of his passes against Maryland.

McCarthy also cannot hide from the fact that he completed just 27 passes combined in Michigan’s 2 CFP games this past season and completed exactly 60% of his passes in those games. Whether or not fans want to hear it, those kinds of numbers put McCarthy’s NFL stock closer to the realm of “work in progress” than Stroud’s immediate success.

No, McCarthy is not as reliant on his legs as Justin Fields, but that doesn’t mean he’s situated to be an immediate impact passer at the next level. Finding the right situation will be crucial for early success, and that’s not what you want to hear for a player many have projected as a top 5 pick.

We’ll see if McCarthy can build on the Big Ten success Stroud experienced last season or if it will be more struggles for another young B1G QB.