Michael Penix Jr. is on a collision course with Michigan after Washington escaped with a win over Texas in the Sugar Bowl. Now, Penix’s mighty left arm — and his electric performance with the Huskies — serves as the final villain standing between the Wolverines and a national title.

To be clear: The idea of Penix (or anything Washington) being a villain in Houston only exists in Ann Arbor. For the rest of the country, Jim Harbaugh’s program has been on par with the Death Star this year, but that’s a role the team is leaning into with a shot to capture the national championship.

As for Penix, he’s a performer Michigan has some experience with, though under completely different circumstances. In fact, few players from Penix’s first (and only) start against the Wolverines could have envisioned this full-circle moment for the quarterback.

Travel back to the 2020 season when Penix was a redshirt sophomore starting at Indiana. At the time, Penix was ascending as the star for Tom Allen’s Hoosier in what became a wild (and shortened) season for the Big Ten.

At the start of November, Indiana and Michigan prepared for a top-25 matchup in a game that would solidify the 2020 trajectory of the two programs. And Penix delivered in a big way, going 30-for-50 through the air for 342 yards and 3 touchdowns without a turnover against the Wolverines.

A touchdown pass to Peyton Hendershot ahead of halftime gave Indiana a commanding 24-7 lead in that game as the Hoosiers rolled to a 38-21 win. Indiana’s lone regular-season loss in 2020 would come on the road at Ohio State, a game where Penix equally shined, while Michigan struggled to a 2-4 record.

However, the overall trajectory of the two programs shifted again in 2021.

Penix suffered a season-ending knee injury against Maryland in 2020 and would appear in just 5 games during the 2021 season as the Hoosiers struggled. Meanwhile, Jim Harbaugh revived the program in Ann Arbor and delivered the first of 3 straight trips to the College Football Playoff.

Fast forward to the present, and Penix is wrapping up his college career after an electric two-year run at Washington. And in a fitting turn of history, the final season of the 4-team Playoff will be determined by Penix once again going head-to-head with Michigan’s defense.

This year’s unit is undoubtedly better than the one he previously faced, but it’s also worth wondering if the outcome will be any different in Houston.

After all, Penix’s accomplishments this year jump off the page. There’s his game-winning drive against Oregon (from the first of two games between the two teams) that covered just 2 plays. Then, Penix delivered an incredible option play as a part of Washington’s game-winning drive in the Apple Cup.

Finally — and most recently — is Penix’s other-worldly Sugar Bowl performance as he completed 76% of his passes for 430 yards and 2 touchdowns against Texas. As head coach Kalen DeBoer put it, Penix was “on a mission” throughout the entire month of December.

All things considered, Penix is probably the player who should have ultimately won the Heisman Trophy. However, Michigan likely has one strong rebuttal to anyone siding with the QB in the national championship:

Penix has not faced a defense like Michigan’s.

That’s true. Michigan has an elite secondary led by Will Johnson, Mike Sainristil and Rod Moore. Michigan is also stout up front as Sainristil pointed out after the Rose Bowl with a deep mix of run-stoppers and pass rushers.

So, who has the edge for the national championship? At the end of the day, Michigan is still the favorite, but it would be unwise to put too much stock in the defensive performance against Alabama.

While Nick Saban’s program is traditionally among the most talented teams in the country, the Crimson Tide fell short in key areas against Michigan. It just so happens those areas are the strengths of this Washington squad.

In the Rose Bowl, the Wolverines terrorized QB Jalen Milroe to the tune of 6 sacks (5 in the first half alone) and registered 10 tackles for loss. The thought entering the game was that a dual-threat QB would give Michigan’s defense issues. In the end, the inexperience of Milroe and Alabama’s offensive line was the difference.

Meanwhile, Penix has the benefit of playing behind the Joe Moore Award-winning offensive line this season. He also has the kind of experience that will make it tough for Jesse Minter to throw stuff at the Huskies Penix has not seen before.

And all of that is without getting into Penix’s supporting cast at receiver. Few QBs in the country have the benefit of throwing to a host of NFL-caliber receivers including the likes of Rome Odunze, Ja’lynn Polk, Jalen McMillan and productive veteran tight end Jack Westover.

With that type of lineup, the game could hinge on a key injury, and that makes the status of Washington running back Dillon Johnson all the more notable. A 1,000-yard rusher for the Huskies, Johnson was injured on Washington’s final drive vs. Texas, and his status for Monday night is currently uncertain.

The injury to Johnson could give the Wolverines an edge in the matchup. Then again, the potential absence of Johnson could just set the table for more Penix magic on the biggest of stages.

Is Michigan a team of destiny as Paul Finebaum alluded to Tuesday morning? Or, is this season all about Penix and an improbable title for Washington as the Pac-12 fades into the backdrop?

We’ll find out soon enough.