A win on Saturday would clinch a telling feat for the Jim Harbaugh era
Trivia time!
Before October 2018, can you name how many ranked B1G teams Michigan beat during the Jim Harbaugh era? I’ll give you a hint. The last one happened in the first half of the 2016 season. The other was in Harbaugh’s B1G debut.
Ah, well. I suppose I spoiled the answer with that wording. The correct answer was two.
That’s right. Before October 2018, Harbaugh had wins against just two ranked B1G foes since he arrived at Michigan. Those wins were against No. 13 Northwestern back in 2015 and a 14-7 barnburner against No. 8 Wisconsin in October 2016. Up until a month ago, Harbaugh’s record against ranked B1G foes was 2-6.
Don’t get it twisted. I didn’t throw that stat out there to spiral into some Clay Travis-like rant about how Harbaugh is the most overrated coach in college football.
I threw it out there because that was all before October 2018. In October, Harbaugh picked up a pair of wins against ranked opponents, thus matching his entire pre-October 2018 total in an 8-day stretch.
And if Michigan wins on Saturday against No. 14 Penn State, Harbaugh will notch his third straight win against a ranked B1G opponent.
If that stat isn’t a sign of why this Michigan team is different, I don’t know what is.
Technically, Harbaugh’s 2018 team isn’t on the 2016 squad’s level yet in terms of a peak Playoff poll ranking. That group got up to No. 2 after it started off 9-0 with a +222 scoring margin in conference play.
We all know what happened after that.
But I’d argue that what this year’s squad accomplished — with arguably less all-around talent — was more impressive.
That 2016 squad had to face 1 ranked foe to get to 9-0. Its only road game outside the state of Michigan in that stretch was to New Jersey to play Rutgers, which was basically Michigan East. It was perhaps because of that favorable start that the Wolverines crumbled away from home against quality opponents.
If this 2018 Michigan team crumbles down the stretch — I’d be very surprised — it won’t be because it was shell-shocked once it finally faced some in-game adversity against a quality opponent. Coming back down 3 scores on the road against Northwestern now looks more impressive, and Michigan State and Wisconsin are outside of the top 25 now because of how well the Wolverines played against them.
It’s interesting because in many ways, the 2018 schedule is setting up much better for a B1G title than the 2016 schedule did. Obviously even with a win on Saturday the ultimate roadblock still awaits in Columbus, but just in terms of actually having to beat quality opponents in the middle of the season, this is probably how every coach would want to lead into the home stretch.
By the way, each of Michigan’s last 4 opponents have a winning record in conference play. The same is true of Penn State.
Of course there are no guarantees that Michigan gets that third straight win against a ranked team on Saturday. Lord knows Don Brown and that defense remember the 42 points that Penn State hung on them last year in Happy Valley. Trace McSorley, who sounds extremely questionable for Saturday, racked up over 350 yards from scrimmage and 4 touchdowns in their matchup last year.
But just hypothetically speaking, let’s say Michigan does win this game. With the loser of Alabama-LSU likely falling out of the top 4, it certainly seems possible that the Wolverines would take that spot heading into the second weekend of November. All that would stand in their way of keeping a top-4 spot for the Ohio State showdown would be a trip to Michigan East, AKA “Rutgers,” and a home game against Indiana.
The odds of a potential 10-game winning streak — which would be another Harbaugh era first — skyrocket if they can escape Saturday with a victory. And I don’t want to count any chickens before they hatch, but I think the “Harbaugh has never finished better than third in his own division” take will die in 2018.
After the Notre Dame loss, that crowd seemed like it was going to be heard loud and clear in 2018. It was setting up to be another year of Harbaugh not getting his team to elite status. But all Michigan has done is quietly prove that narrative false, week after week against quality opponents.
Saturday is another huge step in showing that this Michigan team is different than the previous 3, who compiled a pedestrian 7-5 mark in November. Beat another ranked team late in the season and the narrative is a little closer from fading.
Here’s another Michigan trivia question. When was the last time that Michigan beat 3 ranked B1G teams in as many games?
That was 1997. We all know what happened after that.