Ad Disclosure
Tradition Crystal Ball: Predicting every Michigan football game in 2024
By Paul Harvey
Published:
Editor’s note: Saturday Tradition’s annual Crystal Ball series continues with Michigan. We’ll go in alphabetical order through the 18-team B1G.
Previously: Illinois | Indiana | Iowa | Maryland
* * * * * * *
Welcome back to the latest episode of Tradition’s “Crystal Ball” series! We are predicting every game on the 2024 Big Ten schedule throughout this series, and we will tackle Michigan’s entire slate today.
The Wolverines head into the season as the defending national champions but with a lot of questions. They begin at the top with Sherrone Moore stepping in as the head coach.
Though Moore shined as an acting head coach in Jim Harbaugh’s absence last season, it is now Moore’s show to run in Ann Arbor. He has the body of work that instills confidence, but now it’s up to him to deliver on the field.
Further complicating things is a recent report on the NCAA’s Notice of Allegations related to the sign-stealing saga of 2023 and Connor Stalions. According to that report, Moore could be facing stiff penalties including a possible suspension.
Even if Moore avoids a suspension, the offense contains a large group of questions with JJ McCarthy, Blake Corum and Roman Wilson headlining the key pieces gone from 2023. While breaking in a new quarterback, look for Michigan to lean on Donovan Edwards and Colston Loveland to carry a large load.
The good news is Michigan’s defense has a chance to be elite once again, and the unit should help keep the team in just about every game on the schedule. Will Johnson, Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant have a shot at All-American seasons and becoming first-round picks in the 2025 NFL Draft. Jaishawn Barham, a key transfer piece from the offseason, has a chance to make a major impact while Ernest Hausmann stands ready for a breakout in his 2nd season with the Wolverines.
Without further ado, here is the full Crystal Ball for Michigan’s 2024 schedule.
STATES: MA, OH, MD, KS, KY, NC, AZ, CO, IN, IL, IA, MI, NJ, PA, TN, WV, VA
Game-by-game predictions
Week 1: vs. Fresno State (W)
Fresno State has been solid in recent seasons under Jeff Tedford and Kalen DeBoer. Unfortunately, Tedford made the sudden decision to step down recently amid health concerns. The Bulldogs were never likely to win in Ann Arbor, anyway.
Make no mistake about: Fresno State is far from a Group of 5 pushover, but the recent coaching change ultimately raises the difficulty level for the Bulldogs. Even if Michigan’s offense has some hiccups, the defense should feast at all levels, particularly in the trenches where Graham, Grant and Co. are poised to wreck the opposition.
Week 2: vs. Texas (L)
I get it. It’s fun to make fun of all the “Texas is back” talk over the years, but there’s no mistaking the Longhorns’ 2023 performance was for real. Quinn Ewers is back and could be set for a big season, and Texas is probably a bit stronger on paper than Michigan this season. (DraftKings has Texas -3.5 for the game.)
Michigan is unlikely to get blown out at any point in the season barring some wildly unlucky injuries to the defense. But it’s also true its depth can’t match last season’s. Texas is liable to pull away late in the game as the Wolverines run out of steam.
Week 3: vs. Arkansas State (W)
I don’t care who starts at QB for Michigan in this one. The defense alone should be enough to handle Arkansas State, and it’s possible the defense produces some points of its own.
Butch Jones has done his best to improve the Red Wolves each year of his tenure, and the program went bowling a season ago. But Arkansas State lost its only game against a power program — 73-0 to Oklahoma. I don’t think the Wolverines get to 70, but they’ll threaten to break 40 in a rout.
Week 4: vs. USC (W)
Michigan gets the historic honor of hosting USC for the Trojans’ first conference game as a member of the B1G. Unfortunately for USC, the schedule-makers did Lincoln Riley no favors with an early-season trip to the Big House. It is an early measuring stick for the Trojans, and you can bet USC has this game circled for all the reasons in the world.
The problem is Riley’s teams have a history of getting pushed around by more physical opponents. Sound like any team you know? Michigan’s physical nature could make for a long afternoon and brutal wake-up call, and you can bet Michigan wants to send a rude welcome to the B1G newcomers.
Week 5: vs. Minnesota (W)
Michigan dominated the series against Minnesota while Jim Harbaugh was in town, and the Wolverines are still the more talented team between two programs with similar styles. The Gophers enter the year with a handful of question marks, and the offense may not get past the 50-yard line against Michigan’s defense.
The bottom line is PJ Fleck does not need to beat Michigan to have a successful season with his program. But Sherrone Moore has bigger stakes in play, and this is not the kind of game he will allow to trip him up as a new head coach. Look for the Wolverines’ rushing attack to make a statement.
Week 6: at Washington (W)
Michigan’s schedule is far from easy. However, the only West Coast road trip comes in the form of a Washington program trying to reload from a massive loss of talent to the NFL and head coach Kalen DeBoer to Alabama. Don’t be surprised if this shakes out closer than expected (ESPN Bet has Michigan -9 on the road).
The problem I expect Washington to have this fall is in regard to depth with some talented players on the roster but not enough pieces to sustain the blows of the B1G schedule. That’s especially true against Michigan’s physicality. Even if it’s close, the Wolverines should get by with another win, even out west.
Week 7: BYE
Week 8: at Illinois (W)
Illinois has not beaten Michigan since back-to-back victories in 2008-09. The last visit in 2022 was a dramatic one that came down to the wire, but I don’t think things will be quite as heated this season.
Can Luke Altmyer avoid the turnover issues he battled in his first year as a starter? Even with the growth he is due for, few defenses have the kind of upfront pressure and backend coverage that Altmyer will need to account for in this one. The Wolverines will try to grab a few takeaways to build an easy cushion in the 2nd half.
Week 9: vs. Michigan State (W)
Michigan won the past 2 games in the in-state rivalry, re-establishing their dominance with a combined score of 78-7 in those games under Harbaugh. Both teams have new head coaches for 2024, but there’s no denying the depth and talent of the Wolverines should overwhelm the Spartans again this year.
If Moore pans out in Ann Arbor, I fully expected plenty of intense matchups between his Wolverines and Jonathan Smith’s Michigan State program in the years to come. But the reality is Moore’s program has the kind of stability and attitude Smith is hoping to build in East Lansing. It just so happens Michigan is light years ahead of the Spartans in that regard.
RELATED: Stay up to date on all the odds throughout the season with Tradition’s Michigan sportsbook apps all year long!
Week 10: vs. Oregon (W)
Oregon looks like a legit contender in the B1G this fall. The difference-maker in this game? I think it could be the travel impact, and I think we’ll see some truly weird results from some of the cross-country travel games this season. (Although Oregon’s 2007 trip to the Big House resulted in a 39-7 win for the Ducks.)
Dan Lanning is the real deal. His roster construction is the real deal. That doesn’t mean his Oregon program is suddenly head and shoulders above the elite programs in the B1G. It’s not going to be a surprise (or shame to existing B1G programs) if the Ducks win the league. But it’s not going to be an easy price to pay as we’ll soon find out.
Week 11: at Indiana (W)
Indiana did beat Michigan during the COVID season in 2020, but Michigan has otherwise dominated the series. That win in 2020 was only the 2nd for IU since 1968, and Curt Cignetti is starting a full rebuild in 2024. Translation: This one could be ugly for the Hoosiers.
One has to admit Cignetti’s brashness and “be the best” approach is fun, and he is not running from the entertainment aspect of college football. The problem is there is unlikely to be much entertainment from this game for the Hoosiers. On the other hand, the Wolverines might get a chance to empty their roster and rest key players late in the season.
Week 12: BYE
Week13: vs. Northwestern (W)
Michigan hasn’t lost to Northwestern since the Rich Rodriguez era, and this will be Northwestern’s first game against the Wolverines without Pat Fitzgerald since 2005. David Braun did some nice things last season. Don’t expect that same trend this fall.
Even as Northwestern won 8 games, the Wildcats finished 106th in the country in scoring offense and lost their starting and backup QBs from that effort. The defense was also far from extraordinary while finishing 42nd in the country in points allowed per game. Northwestern is primed for a period of regression, and Michigan will capitalize on that with another blowout.
Week 14: at Ohio State (L)
All good things must come to an end, isn’t that how the saying goes? Unfortunately for Michigan, the winning streak for Ohio State is destined to end at some point, and all signs point to it ending this season.
That’s no to say this will not be a competitive game. For as good as Ohio State is on paper, I don’t expect any other top-tier teams in the B1G to pull away from one another in a head-to-head matchup. Even in Columbus, this game will be a nail-biter, but Ohio State has the depth to pull this one out and end the streak.
Still, Wolverine fans can flex their national title over the Buckeyes and Harbaugh’s success over Ryan Day. It will be enough vibes for the season, especially if their record has the program poised to enter the Playoff.
2024 Projection: 10-2 (8-1)
Looking at the full schedule, Michigan has a great shot to get to 10 wins. And if the Wolverines beat at least one of Oregon or Ohio State, they have an incredibly great shot at losing just one game in conference play.
At that point the question becomes: Will an 8-1 Michigan team get a return trip to the B1G Championship Game? If Oregon does lose as I have the Ducks listed here, the possibility for 2+ teams to finish with an 8-1 conference record only goes up, so expect tie-breaking scenarios to come into play.
The bottom line is Michigan looks like a strong candidate to get to double-digit wins, and they will be firmly in the Playoff discussion if that occurs.
NJ, PA, WV, MI Must be 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Paul is a lifelong fan and student of all things college football. He has been covering college football since 2017 and the B1G since 2018.