Tradition Crystal Ball: Predicting every Michigan State football game in 2024

Editor’s note: Saturday Tradition’s annual Crystal Ball series continues with Michigan State. We’ll go in alphabetical order through the 18-team B1G.

Previously: Illinois | Indiana | Iowa | Maryland | Michigan

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Welcome back to the latest edition of Tradition’s annual “Crystal Ball” series! Along the way, we’re predicting every game of the 2024 Big Ten season, and that brings us to Michigan State’s outlook for the season ahead.

There is a growing sense of optimism surrounding the program in East Lansing. Yes, a lot of that has to do with the long-range forecast under new coach Jonathan Smith, but there are some worthwhile pieces in place for his first year with the Spartans.

After taking over following the firing of Mel Tucker and interim leadership of Harlon Barnett, Smith and his new coaching staff remade the roster with 24 transfers. That group includes a trio of ex-Oregon State players with Tanner Miller, Jack Velling and Aidan Chiles following Smith to MSU.

All 3 play offense: Chiles is expected to be the starting quarterback, and Velling will make an impact in the passing attack. Nate Carter also returns to the backfield for the Spartans to try and turn the offense around immediately. Iowa finished next-to-last in the B1G in scoring last season, averaging just 15.9 points per game. Only Iowa (15.4) was worse.

The transfer portal is not the only new look for the Spartans. Smith’s first coaching staff includes multiple key assistants from the group that turned Oregon State around.

How will the new regime and a core of incoming contributors fare in 2024? Let’s visit the crystal ball for some insight.

Game-by-game predictions

Week 1: vs. FAU (W)

Lane Kiffin may have gotten things clicking for FAU awhile back, but things have been varying stages of underwhelming for the Owls since he returned to the SEC. The disappointments most recently include a 4-8 mark in Tom Herman’s first season in 2023. FAU also lost some key pieces, so this game presents a good opportunity for MSU to start off on the right foot. Nothing should be a given after the disasters of 2023, but the Spartans should feel confident in the opener.

Week 2: at Maryland (L)

Michigan State will not get a chance to ramp up to conference play this season. After the soft opener, the Spartans will hit the road for a game at Maryland. There is a chance for this to be a competitive game. The Terrapins are replacing longtime starter and program record-holder Taulia Tagovailoa at quarterback, and it’s possible the new starter for Maryland will be a bit unsteady early in the season. The key could be that it’s a road game for MSU, but it can still be a confidence builder if the Spartans are competitive.

Week 3: vs. Prairie View A&M (W)

Did you know Prairie View A&M had a football team? I thought the biggest claim to fame for the Panthers was a pair of NCAA Tournament appearances in basketball. Turns out they do have a football program in the FCS, and the Panthers even went 6-6 a season ago. That doesn’t change the fact MSU better win this game or it will be an early panic attack for Smith, even with the acknowledgement he inherited a dumpster fire in the offseason.

Week 4: at Boston College (L)

On the surface, games against Maryland and Boston College traditionally would not be particularly daunting. But the Spartans are rebuilding, and 2 of their first 4 games are on the road. It’s impossible to act like that doesn’t matter, especially for a young team in a rebuild. BC and MSU are also similarly positioned on ESPN’s Football Power Index with the Eagles listed at 58th overall and slightly ahead of the Spartans at 68th. The Bill O’Brien vs. Smith matchup is intriguing to me with both coaches in Year 1, and I think playing on the road impacts MSU again.

Week 5: vs. Ohio State (L)

At one point in time, Michigan State could compete with Ohio State on a regular basis. That era feels like ancient history after 8 straight wins by the Buckeyes, 7 of which have been blowouts. This year might feel particularly brutal, and that’s considering a 56-7 loss by the Spartans in 2021. The Buckeyes are primed to compete for the national title, and they’re not going to be intimidated in the slightest by a trip to East Lansing.

Week 6: at Oregon (L)

One week after facing Ohio State, the Spartans will travel to face the other favorite to win the B1G: Oregon. The teams have produced a trio of fun battles in the past decade, but they are at vastly different situations entering 2024. The Ducks might be the best team in the conference on either side of the trenches. It could be tough sledding for Michigan State all game. Don’t overlook the possibility for Oregon to beat Michigan State worse than Ohio State did in Week 5.

Week 7: BYE

Week 8: vs. Iowa (L)

Last season, Michigan State appeared poised to upset Iowa for one bright spot in an otherwise nightmarish season. That game slipped away with Cooper DeJean returning a punt for a touchdown to swing the game. The irony for 2024 is the Spartans likely will be better than they were for that game … but the outcome could be much worse. Aidan Chiles has the skills to be fantastic, but a young QB facing a Phil Parker defense is often a recipe for disaster. Even if Chiles makes some plays, it’s likely an ill-timed mistake or two will determine the margin of the final score.

Week 9: at Michigan (L)

This will be tough for Spartans fans to hear and read about. So let’s keep it short: Jonathan Smith has the chance to turn things around in East Lansing and rebuild the Spartans into a respectable force. The problem: Michigan has about a decade head start on the process and plenty of talent remaining from the final seasons of Jim Harbaugh’s tenure. The bottom line is this could get ugly, even with the Wolverines replacing their head coach and a host of starters from their title-winning squad. Worth noting: Michigan has won the past 2 in the series, but it hasn’t beaten the rival Spartans 3 consecutive times since winning 6 in a row from 2002-07.

Week 10: vs. Indiana (W)

Michigan State might have the toughest schedule in the country between Weeks 5 and 9. The 4 games in that stretch are all against teams I expect to win 9 or 10 games, and 2 are on the road. The good news is MSU will get a bit of a reprieve down the stretch, starting in Week 10 vs. Indiana. Curt Cignetti is entering his own rebuilding process with the Hoosiers, and the Spartans will have an edge in terms of talent on the roster and playing at home for this matchup.

Week 11: BYE

Week 12: at Illinois (W)

Week 12 will be the moment for Smith and his Spartans. Which moment? The one where Michigan State realizes without a shadow of a doubt that Smith and his staff were the right pieces to turn the program around. Some will scoff at that suggestion since the opponent is Illinois, but that’s where the Spartans have fallen after the end of Mel Tucker’s debacle. A road win at Illinois, after the tough stretch in the middle of the season, will provide much-needed momentum in Smith’s debut season. And a punch in the gut to Bret Bielema’s 2024 campaign.

Week 13: vs. Purdue (W)

Purdue scored 35+ points 4 times last season, so the offense does have some potential to create havoc. However, the defense is also susceptible in multiple ways. In this kind of matchup, I’m leaning toward homefield advantage and the veteran coaching staff under Smith giving the Spartans an edge in 2 key areas. That’s not to say Ryan Walters is a bad coach or has a bad staff, but Smith and his group have more experience and know what it takes to build. They’ll also know how to give a rebuilding team a slight edge against comparable opponents in this one.

Week 14: vs. Rutgers (L)

Rutgers in 2024 is not going to be the Rutgers most fans in the B1G are accustomed to seeing. The Scarlet Knights have experience and talent at key positions, and Greg Schiano knows how to get the most out of his group even when the talent level was suboptimal. Michigan State will have some bright spots in the season, but this is not one of them in the season finale. It will sting a bit that a bowl game is on the line. But getting over the hump will come in due time.