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Penn State under James Franklin has settled into one of the most maddening ruts in sports: The limbo stage where you’re consistently good enough to compete for championships but never quite good enough to win one. Despite their reliable presence in the top 10, the Nittany Lions haven’t been able to break the glass ceiling in the conference, dropping 7 straight against Ohio State and 3 straight to Michigan without so much as sniffing a Playoff berth in that span.
Over the past 2 years, specifically, they’re 0-4 against the Buckeyes and Wolverines and 21-1 against everyone else. (The lone defeat coming in the 2023 finale, a Peach Bowl flop against Ole Miss that only further proved the point.) If all you saw of this outfit the past 2 years was a series of high-profile losses, your skepticism that it’s on the cusp of national relevance is fully warranted.
But then, Playoff-of-bust expectations among the locals are, too, and not just because the expanded CFP field lowers the bar for entry. This season also marks Year 3 for the 2022 recruiting class, which remains almost fully intact and on track to live up to its initial billing as the best class of Franklin’s tenure. Half of the projected starting lineup arrived as part of the ’22 haul, including the gem of the group, junior QB Drew Allar, a 6-5, 238-pound specimen who posted the lowest INT rate in the nation (0.5%) in his first season as a starter. The new offensive coordinator, Andy Kotelnecki, arrived straight from the miracle turnaround at Kansas. And, for what it’s worth, Michigan is off the schedule.
If now’s not the time for the Lions to make their move, Franklin’s bosses will be well within their rights to look at his salary and wonder when.
Nittany Lions at a Glance …
2023 Recap: 10-3 (7-2 Big Ten; Lost Peach Bowl; 13th AP)
Best Player: RB Nicholas Singleton
Best Pro Prospect: Edge Abdul Carter
Best Addition: WR Julian Fleming (Ohio State)
Best Name: QB Ethan Grunkemeyer
Tenured Vet: OL Sal Wormley (6th year; 26 career starts at guard)
Emerging Dude: Sophomore LB Tony Rojas
Biggest strength: Junior RBs Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen are the model of a modern backfield rotation. Despite splitting touches each of the past 2 seasons, Singleton (2,206 yards) and Allen (2,038) are only the third and fourth players in Penn State history to account for 2,000+ scrimmage yards over their first 2 years on campus, joining Curtis Enis and Saquon Barkley.
Nagging concern: A glaring lack of juice from the passing game. The wideouts as a group were a no-show in all 3 losses in 2023, including the Peach Bowl, where the majority of the Lions’ 348 passing yards and 2 of their 3 passing touchdowns against Ole Miss went to backs and tight ends. The top 2 receivers, KeAndre Lambert-Smith and Dante Cephas, both portaled out with little fanfare; Julian Fleming, a former 5-star who spent 4 disappointing years at Ohio State overshadowed by future first-rounders, portaled in. Fleming and the lone holdover from last year’s main rotation, Harrison Wallace III, are being counted on to increase the voltage.
Looming question: Can the pass rush pick up where it left off? Penn State led the nation with 49 sacks in 2023, largely by committee. The nominal starters on the edge, Chop Robinson and Adisa Isaac, took their talents to the NFL Draft, where they were taken in the first and third round, respectively. But the holdovers were just as productive: Former blue-chip Dani Dennis-Sutton actually led the edge-rushing rotation in snaps, and converted linebacker Abdul Carter looked like such a natural in the spring that the mock draft circuit couldn’t resist comparing him to Micah Parsons. That’s unfair for many reasons, not least of which is the fact that Parsons didn’t fully commit to his transition from linebacker to the edge until his second year as a pro. But Carter (who already wore Parsons’ old No. 11 jersey) has embraced the comp, even working out with Parsons’ personal trainer over the summer.
He certainly passes the eye test. If the on-field results follow — still a big if, advance hype notwithstanding — he’s already being sized up for a single-digit slot in 2025.
The schedule: The opener at West Virginia is a legitimate road test the Lions would love to make look like no sweat. The real make-or-break stretch comes at midseason, in a 4-week run against USC (in L.A.), Wisconsin (in Madison), Ohio State and Washington. Taking any 3 out of those 4 keeps them on the Playoff track with a straight shot through the rest of the regular season.
RELATED: Predicting every Penn State football game in 2024
The upshot
Between the wide receivers, offensive tackles and cornerbacks, there are question marks across the lineup on both sides of the ball, not to mention at kicker. But no one has ever looked at a team with 21 wins over the previous 2 seasons, a tenured, 5-star quarterback in his second year as a starter, and a manageable schedule and reserved judgment over a couple new tackles. Expectations begin with the Playoff and proceed from there.