Tradition Crystal Ball: Predicting every Penn State football game in 2024

Editor’s note: Saturday Tradition’s annual Crystal Ball series continues with Penn State. We’ll go in alphabetical order through the 18-team B1G.

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It’s that time of year football fans! We are neck deep in Tradition’s annual Crystal Ball series, and the latest installment brings us to one of the favorites among the Big Ten Championship odds this fall.

That team would be Penn State with James Franklin’s program coming in 3rd on FanDuel’s B1G title odds, trailing only Ohio State and Oregon in that regard. The Nittany Lions have always been talented under Franklin’s watch, and they now have one of the best coaching staffs in the country.

Defensively, Penn State took a hit with Manny Diaz’s departure to take the Duke head coaching job, but the plan was always for Diaz’s tenure to be brief. To replace Diaz, the Nittany Lions grabbed former Indiana coach Tom Allen, who has extensive defensive knowledge and head coaching experience in the B1G.

However, the big move of the offseason came at offensive coordinator where Penn State lured Andy Kotelnicki away from Kansas. The right-hand man for head coach Lance Leipold, Kotelnicki got the most out of the Jayhawks’ offense and, ideally, will unlock the explosive plays that were missing from Penn State a season ago.

To go with the coaching staff, Penn State returns key pieces on both sides of the ball with QB Drew Allar, RBs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, and elite linebacker/pass rusher Abdul Carter. The wide receiver room is a question mark, but a familiar face in former Ohio State WR Julian Fleming is on board to try and anchor that unit.

Penn State has the talent and expectations to be a serious contender in the new B1G this year. What does the Crystal ball have in store? Let’s get to it!

Game-by-game predictions

Week 1: at West Virginia (W)

West Virginia won 9 games with a bowl victory over North Carolina last season. However, their final record includes a 38-15 loss to Penn State in the season-opener in a game that felt even more lopsided. West Virginia will get this year’s opener at home, but is homefield advantage really a 23-point swing?

Penn State is the better team and enters the season at No. 6 on ESPN’s Football Power Index, and the Nittany Lions have some electric pieces returning on both sides of the ball. ESPN Analytics gives Penn State a 77.6% chance to win. I don’t think the Nittany Lions blow a chance to start the season with a quality win.

Week 2: vs. Bowling Green (W)

Bowling Green is no stranger to B1G opponents after playing Michigan, Minnesota and Maryland during the regular season in recent seasons. (The Falcons have also played newcomers Oregon and UCLA.) Scot Loeffler has taken the program to back-to-back bowl games, and he even guided the program to a road victory over Georgia Tech a season ago.

The problem is Penn State is not a mid-tier power conference program. This is the kind of matchup that should allow the Nittany Lions to pull the starters early with the potential for plenty of playing time for Beau Pribula in the 2nd half. Penn State won’t push anything early in the season, especially with this type of opponent, as they cruise into a bye in Week 3.

Week 3: BYE

Week 4: vs. Kent State (W)

Kent State will be Penn State’s 2nd straight game against a MAC opponent, giving the Nittany Lions a great shot at getting to 3-0 before conference play kicks in. The Golden Flashes were also one of the worst teams in the country a season ago at 1-11. ESPN’s FPI is equally unkind, ranking Kent State dead last at 134th in the country entering the season.

Even if the Golden Flashes were vastly improved, they face Pitt, Tennessee and Penn State across the first 4 weeks of the season and all on the road. Back-to-back weeks with road trips to Knoxville and Happy Valley look very unpleasant for the Flashes. Look for more of Pribula and the 2nd-string players early in this one.

Week 5: vs. Illinois (W)

Illinois as been a frustrating opponent for Penn State (see: 2021 OT loss at home and offensive frustrations in a 2023 win), but that’s unlikely to be the case this season. Bret Bielema’s program checks in at 61st overall in Billy Connelly’s final SP+ rankings of the preseason, and the Illini’s depth remains a work in progress.

Ultimately, this will be the conference opener for Penn State and its first game of major consequence since the season-opener against West Virginia. I think that leads to some style points in play as the Nittany Lions are hungry to make a statement early on.

Week 6: vs. UCLA (W)

UCLA and Penn State played regularly during the 1960s but haven’t met since 1968. Now, they are conference opponents, and the Bruins will make their first trek into Happy Valley as a member of the B1G. I’m not sure things will be a complete debacle in DeShaun Foster’s first season after Chip Kelly left for Columbus. But this is not your traditional road trip for anyone.

Penn State is a cut above most teams in the conference this fall. This one sets up as a potential trap game with a California road trip on deck, but Franklin knows how to keep his team engaged. Even if it’s a bit closer than expected, Penn State should get by the Bruins.

Week 7: at USC (W)

Franklin is 0-1 against USC at Penn State, losing a Rose Bowl thriller to the Trojans following the 2016 season. And in case anyone is overconfident here, this game has a chance to be closer than expected. USC checks in at 21st overall in Connelly’s final preseason SP+ rankings, and the Trojans’ offense is ranked 5th nationally by the SP+. Even without Caleb Williams.

The other factor is the travel component with Penn State traveling out west at the midpoint of the season. Facing USC on the road has a chance to level the playing field a bit, even though the Nittany Lions are the better team. Penn State will be on upset alert here deep into the 4th quarter, but I’m betting the defense and the ground game of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen comes up clutch.

Week 8: BYE

Week 9: at Wisconsin (W)

Penn State is 3-0 against Wisconsin under Franklin, but 2 of those games were decided by a touchdown. The difference is this could be one of the best Nittany Lion rosters of his tenure while the Badgers are … not quite that in Luke Fickell’s 2nd season. Back-to-back road games might bother me a bit in the new B1G, but Penn State has the extra benefit of a bye coming into Week 9.

The Nittany Lions have learned how to win games they’re supposed to win the vast majority of the time under Franklin. Their problem has been punching up against stiffer competition, but that won’t be the case in Madison in Week 9. Penn State should overwhelm the Badgers in the 2nd half, setting the stage for a monumental showdown in Week 10.

Week 10: vs. Ohio State (L)

It’s entirely possible Penn State rolls into this Week 10 matchup as the higher ranked team. I have the Nittany Lions at 7-0 to this point, and the Crystal Ball has the Buckeyes losing to Oregon before we get to Week 10. Either way, the winner of this game will remain in the fight to be the No. 1 seed in the B1G, and the loser could need some help to find their way to Indianapolis for the conference championship game.

This one will be played in Beaver Stadium, and that’s a major plus for Penn State. However, the talent level is a tough one to account for here. Ohio State has a veteran roster that will not be intimidated by the road environment, and Ryan Day has gotten the better of Franklin at every turn. It’s another Penn State vs. Ohio State matchup with Game of the Year potential. Unfortunately, it’s another one poised to go against the Nittany Lions.

Week 11: vs. Washington (W)

This will be Washington’s first trip to Happy Valley and just the 4th all-time meeting between the programs. Penn State is rolling out the red — er, white — carpet for the event with the annual White Out scheduled for Week 11. If Michael Penix Jr. and Kalen DeBoer were still with the Huskies, this might be an interesting game.

As it stands, Washington is breaking in a new regime with Jedd Fisch, and that’s a tough setup for a team traveling across the country in early November. The atmosphere will be electric, and I’m expecting the Huskies to be rattled when the bright lights come on. The Nittany Lions will ride the White Out momentum into a bounce-back win in Week 11.

Week 12: at Purdue (W)

Penn State has dominated its series with Purdue, though the 2022 meeting against Jeff Brohm’s Boilermakers was a thriller. The problem for Purdue is Brohm is long gone, and Ryan Walters is still trying to find his way as a head coach. In fact, the only thing Purdue will have on its side in this one is the late-season magic of Ross-Ade Stadium.

The Boilermakers will ride that as much as possible, and this does set up as a slight trap game for Penn State. But is it enough to swing a matchup for a Purdue team predicted to finish dead last in the 18-team B1G? My guess is no. The Nittany Lions will find a way to deliver a wide victory margin by the time the final whistle comes around.

Week 13: at Minnesota (W)

Minnesota dialed up a memorable performance in 2019, upsetting Penn State at home in a 31-26 thriller. So far, that season has been the high-water mark of PJ Fleck’s tenure with 11 wins and an Outback Bowl victory. Needless to say, I don’t see the Golden Gophers coming close to that number this fall.

After finishing 5-7 in the regular season last year (though still making a bowl game), I’m not sure Minnesota is better this season. Especially in the new era of B1G football. By this point in the season, Penn State will know if its playing for a trip to the Playoff or not. In fact, the B1G Championship will not be out of the question if the Crystal Ball is accurate up to this point.

Week 14: vs. Maryland (W)

Penn State has widely dominated Mike Locksley’s Maryland teams, save for a Terrapin upset in the 2020 campaign. In 4 games outside of 2020, Locksley’s group is 0-4 with an average final score of 42.75-7.25. The Nittany Lions even have a pair of shutouts in that span.

Look, Maryland and Penn State would make for a nice geographical “rivalry” in the new B1G as a traditional season-ending matchup. Unfortunately, Locksley’s program has not proven it can live up to making things competitive on a regular basis. Even if Penn State is a bit banged up, its depth will be enough to survive here and solidify a potential spot in the CFP.

RELATED: Looking for the best odds on the 2024 B1G season? Be sure to get your latest offers straight from Tradition’s best MD sportsbooks!

2024 Projection: 11-1 (8-1)

Sometimes the Crystal Ball is just a bit more bullish on certain programs. In fact, if these predictions hold true, this would be Penn State’s first season with 11 wins in the regular season since 2008. Penn State finished as co-B1G champs that year and would play USC in the Rose Bowl.

In total honesty, I did not expect to project Penn State at 11 wins, but that’s the nature of the schedule this season. The Nittany Lions are 20-4 across the past 2 regular seasons, and the 4 losses have come against Ohio State and Michigan.

Without divisions in play, Penn State only has to worry about Ohio State from that duo this season, and that will pay off in a major way. At 11-1, the Nittany Lions will certainly be in the mix for a chance to play for a B1G title, and it’s hard to envision an 11-1 B1G team not making the CFP in some fashion.

Whether Penn State can hang with the elite teams in the nation is another question, but that doesn’t change the outlook for this year’s schedule.