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ESPN’s FPI predicts the outcome of Michigan State at Michigan in Week 9
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ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) always predicts the outcome of each college football game every week. After a wild Week 8 slate, predictions have been released for the Week 9 slate.
Included in the Week 9 predictions is the Michigan State at Michigan matchup. The Battle for Paul Bunyan Trophy is always one of the year’s most anticipated rivalry games.
This year, the model leans toward the Michigan side, giving the Wolverines a 67.2% chance to get a victory in the rivalry game. This means the Spartans have just a 32.8% chance to get their first win in the series since 2021.
Entering this game, both teams are 4-3 overall and 2-2 in B1G play. The Wolverines lost 21-7 to Illinois in Week 8, while the Spartans upset Iowa 32-20.
Michigan’s offense has been a problem this season. The team has gone through 3 quarterbacks, with Davis Warren, Alex Orji, and now Jack Tuttle all taking turns as the starter. It could be because of these offensive struggles that the Wolverines’ chances to win this game according to FPI have gone down significantly since the preseason.
Before the 2024 season, FPI gave the Wolverines an 86.7% chance to win this rivalry game. The team’s chances have gone down 20% between then and now.
The Wolverines have picked up B1G wins over USC and Minnesota while picking up losses to Washington and Illinois. The Spartans have conference wins over Maryland and Iowa with losses to Ohio State and Oregon.
These teams have played 116 times in history. The Wolverines have 73 wins while the Spartans have 38, and the teams have tied 5 times. The 2024 edition of this rivalry will kickoff from Michigan Stadium on Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Bryce Lazenby covers college football for Saturday Tradition. A Nashville native, his previous stops include FanSided, Dimers, and The Leaf-Chronicle.