Penn State football: Predicting a win over Purdue and an 11-2 season. But …

This shouldn’t even be a worry. Fret about a season-opener vs. Purdue? What has become of Penn State?

Even at West Lafayette, Ind., under the lights at a blacked out, nearly sold out Ross-Ade Stadium, the Nittany Lions shouldn’t have to sweat a match-up with the Boilermakers.

RELATED: B1G gives Fox a high-stakes barnburner under the Thursday night lights

Up until 2 years ago, PSU fans would have chalked up Thursday’s primetime showdown as a victory and saved the complaining about the Big Ten’s scheduling practices for another day.

But Jeff Brohm has turned former 8th-string quarterback Aidan O’Connell and a bunch of mostly 3-star recruits into a sensation. The pass-happy, 6th-year Boilermakers coach orchestrated a 9-4 season last year that included upsets of top-5 teams Iowa and Michigan State.

Given that Penn State lost to both those teams — and 4 others — in 2021, it’s no wonder pessimism is running rampant in State College. The worst of the trolls want to throw James Franklin, his staff, quarterback Sean Clifford and half the cheerleading squad under the bus.

There is reason for skepticism. The program has no doubt been trending in the wrong direction. And many key contributors to last year’s top-10 scoring defense have to be replaced.

And yet here I am, on the eve of the season, telling you to relax. Take a chill pill. Things are going to be okay. This year. Starting on Thursday night. Kirk Herbstreit will be proven correct; your unranked Lions are a sleeper. No, not to make the CFP (let’s not get silly), but to return to 2016-19 form. Nine or 10 wins. Maybe 11.

It starts vs. Purdue

O’Connell is the real deal, despite his humble beginnings at Purdue as a walk-on in 2017 who didn’t even register a recruiting ranking. But his top 3 receivers are gone, including superstar David Bell. The Boilers also lost 2 key defensive players, including first-round NFL Draft pick George Karlaftis.

The Lions lost a bunch of key players too, but Purdue can’t reload like Penn State can. Not even close. That’s why Purdue hasn’t beaten Penn State since 2004, losing 9 straight — the past 2 during Franklin’s tenure by scores of 62-24 (2016) and 35-7 (2019). Since Clifford and O’Connell arrived at their respective programs in 2017, Penn State has had 7 5-star recruits and 70 4-stars. Purdue has had 0 and 15, finishing dead last in the B1G in recruiting class ranking twice (including 2021).

In the teams’ most recent meeting, in 2019, Clifford went 20-for-29 for 264 yards and 3 TDs as Penn State won by 4 touchdowns and improved to 5-0 and No. 10 in the AP poll. O’Connell also played in that game, completing his lone pass attempt for 4 yards while mopping up for Jack Plummer. Bell had 3 catches for a team-high 56 yards. Overall, Penn State held Purdue to 104 total yards and 8  first downs while cranking out a well-balanced 460 yards of its own.

But back to this year’s contest. In addition to having superior talent, Penn State matches up well in this game. It plays strong on the back end on defense and has speedy linebackers for pass coverage, including converted safety Jonathan Sutherland. O’Connell and his new receivers will meet significant resistance.

O’Connell and Purdue make for a heart-warming, feel-good story in the B1G West. And they’ll actually compete with the Lions this time around. But they won’t win. Penn State will be 1-0 and getting at least a little national buzz by Friday morning.

Rest of the season

I’m feeling bullish that Penn State will get its, uh … stuff … together this year. Not sure why. Maybe it’s just more fun to start a season as an optimist. This is a talented bunch. I gotta believe that the coaching staff’s intense efforts to fix the offensive line will yield at least modest improvements. I’m high on true freshman backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen. There’s something to be said for experience at quarterback, and Clifford has 3 years worth. And I’m stoked to see new DC Manny Diaz unleash a more aggressive, attacking defense.

I like Penn State to win at Purdue and at Auburn in Week 3, and get to its Oct. 15 date with Michigan in Ann Arbor at 5-0 and ranked in the top 10. Unlike my Saturday Tradition colleague Alex Hickey, I don’t have a crystal ball showing a win over Ohio State, despite the Lions’ getting the Buckeyes at home on Oct. 29. Frankly, I expect OSU to enter the Playoff at 13-0. They’ll stomp most foes and outscore their legitimate challengers.

So, Penn State will enter November at 6-2, having lost to the Bucks and either Michigan or Minnesota, which visits Beaver Stadium for the White Out game on Oct. 22.

Then, the Lions will do something they haven’t done since 2016 — run the table in November.

Since I’m feeling this giddy, let’s give them a bowl win, too. Clifford ends his 4-year stint as the starting QB as he began it, with an 11-2 season.

But if Purdue wins …

In the extremely unlikely case that I’m wrong about Thursday night, all bets are off. That would be analogous to losing to Illinois last year, a demoralizing 9-OT setback from which the Lions never recovered. If the offensive line can’t hold its own against Purdue, Penn State will be on its way to another 7-6 season. Let’s not go there.

Luke Glusco

Luke Glusco is a Penn State graduate and veteran journalist. He covers Penn State and occasionally writes about other Big Ten programs and topics. He also serves as the primary copy editor for Saturday Tradition.