Betting Stuff: Analysis, picks against the spread for the Final Four

UConn, Purdue, Alabama, and NC State. The Final Four is here, and the field is stuffed to the brim with storylines.

Who had this quartet as the last 4 standing in college basketball this season? If you filled out a bracket, you probably had at least 1. UConn, the defending champs, have looked better and better and better as they have ripped through the first 4 games of the NCAA Tournament and, with another title, could cap one of the most dominant 2-year stretches we’ve seen in the modern era.

Maybe you even had Purdue, which has shaken off last year’s first-round embarrassment to blitz teams and reach the program’s first Final Four since 1980.

Surely no one saw NC State coming. The Wolfpack were closing out the regular season with 7 losses in 9 games and were very much on the outside looking in on the Field of 68. But then the ACC Tournament began and NC State hasn’t lost since — 9 straight on a run rivaling what the Cardiac Pack did in 1983.

And then there’s Alabama, the football school that hired a numbers guy to turn the basketball program into one of the most consistent forces of the last 4 seasons. Nate Oats’ rim-and-3 style on offense has the Crimson Tide in their first-ever Final Four and believing they can knock off the favorites.

Who leaves Arizona with the title of national champion? An exciting weekend is in store.

In anticipation, our team gives picks against the spread for Saturday’s Final Four contests.

(Note: All spreads via ESPN BET unless otherwise noted; all times Eastern)

1 Purdue vs. 11 NC State | Saturday, April 6 | 6:09 p.m. | TBS | Glendale, Arizona

Spread: Purdue -9.5

Total: 146.5

Derek Peterson: This will be NC State’s longest gap between games since the magical run got started, and I do wonder if that results in some luffing of the Wolfpacks’ sails. Plus, this is just not a good matchup. But to be fair to NC State, no one outside of UConn can match up with what Purdue is doing. The Boilermakers are better at every single spot on the floor and no team has had an answer for the Zach Edey conundrum. Utah State tried to take Edey away and got buried by 3s. Tennessee tried to stay home longer and got manhandled by Edey on the block. Never mind Purdue’s 3-for-15 shooting performance from 3 against the Vols; Edey had 40 and Purdue won the basketball game. DJ Burns’ faceup game and his unorthodox play might make Edey uncomfortable at the other end, but defending Purdue without fouling is going to be such a challenge I’m not sure it will ultimately matter. PICK: Purdue -8.5 (via Caesars)

Spenser Davis: Not to take away anything from NC State’s incredible 9-game winning streak, but the Wolfpack have benefitted from a bit of shooting luck to get to this point. The same NC State team that allowed ACC teams to make north of 36% of their 3-point attempts during the regular season has held NCAA Tournament opposition to under 24% from beyond the arc in the Big Dance. Unfortunately for NC State, Purdue is one of the very best 3-point shooting teams in the entire country. And that’s to say nothing of Zach Edey, who has been college basketball’s most dominant player this season and has upped his play to another level during the Tournament. PICK: Purdue -8.5 (via Caesars)

1 UConn vs. 4 Alabama | Saturday, April 6 | 8:49 p.m. | TBS | Glendale, Arizona

Spread: UConn -11.5

Total: 160.5

Derek Peterson: There’s something about this Alabama team that just makes me believe in them against all other rational thought. I sided with the Tide in the Sweet 16 and then did so again in the Elite Eight without much of a second thought. I’ll back them once more here. We’ve seen some massive blowouts in the Final Four, but I’m not convinced this will be another one. Alabama is already a fast team that bucks the trend of low-block bruisers in the rest of the bracket, but there’s another gear the Tide can shift into if Latrell Wrightsell Jr. (listed day-to-day) returns to the court and Nate Oats can downsize. Alabama might be able to stun the Huskies with a blend of speed and athleticism the champs haven’t seen much of. Make no mistake, Alabama has to knock down something like 15 3s to have a chance to beat UConn, but if they take 40 there’s no reason that’s not possible. This is who Nate Oats is and why he set this team up the way he did. Alabama’s strength is in its shooting, and I think the Tide plan to turn this into a track meet. If shots fall, they can keep it closer than most anyone expects. PICK: Alabama +11.5 (via DraftKings)

Spenser Davis: I’ll start by giving credit to the Crimson Tide, who I did not think would make it out of the first weekend of this tournament — let alone all the way to the Final Four. I had my doubts about Alabama’s defense, and still do to some extent, but the Tide have been adequate on that end of the floor throughout the Big Dance. Alabama’s offense, of course, has been more than adequate — it’s elite. But in this case, it may not be enough because the Huskies are elite on both sides of the ball and have NBA-level talent all over the court. UConn has won 10 consecutive NCAA Tournament games by 13+ points, and I don’t think this Alabama team — which struggles on the defensive end and is at a pretty significant raw talent disadvantage — will be the team to snap that streak. PICK: UConn -11.5 (via BetMGM)