Tradition Crystal Ball: Predicting every Penn State football game in 2023

Editor’s note: Saturday Tradition’s annual Crystal Ball series continues today with Penn State. We’ll stay with the B1G East all week. Next week, we’ll predict every game for every B1G West team.

Previously: Indiana | Maryland | Michigan | Michigan State | Ohio State

The unluckiest number in the Big Ten is 3. And that’s not good news for Penn State.

In recent years, the league’s 3rd-best team has experienced a dramatic drop-off the following season. Without fail, in fact.

A year ago, Michigan State fell to 5-7 after its 11-2 campaign in 2021.

The year prior, it was Indiana that fell off the face of the planet, finishing 2-10 after finishing 12th in the country in 2020.

Penn State, which went 11-2 in 2019, started 2020 by losing 5 straight games.

In 2019, defending Big Ten West champ Northwestern went 3-9 with a 1-9 record in the B1G.

Michigan State, the B1G’s No. 3 team in 2017, dropped to 7-6 in 2018 with a 7-6 loss to Oregon in the Redbox Bowl.

The 2017 Wisconsin Badgers are last team to break this Hope Diamond-ownership type of cycle. Wisconsin improved from 11-3 in 2016 to 13-1 in ’17.

The 2023 Nittany Lions are hoping to emulate that Wisconsin team, save for the part that includes getting left home from the College Football Playoff with 1 loss.

And on paper, the Nittany Lions appear to be the team most capable of overcoming the Power of No. 3 since those Jonathan Taylor-charged Badgers.

Getting over the hump

It used to be that Penn State had just 1 hump to get over in the B1G: Ohio State. The Nittany Lions haven’t beaten the Buckeyes since 2016, which is the last time Penn State won the Big Ten.

In the time since then, the B1G East has morphed from a dromedary to Bactarian camel, and Michigan represents the 2nd hump. The Wolverines have won 2 in a row over Penn State on their way to consecutive conference titles.

The teams felt evenly matched in 2021, when Michigan eked out a 21-17 win at Beaver Stadium. But last year’s 41-17 smashing in Ann Arbor suggests a gap has opened between the teams. Michigan and Ohio State inhabit the B1G’s top tier, while Penn State is on a plane of its own — ahead of the rest, but behind the big dogs.

The question of this season boils down to whether the Nittany Lions are ready to join that top tier. A deeply talented group of sophomores and freshmen on both sides of the ball indicate it’s very likely to happen a year from now.

But can James Franklin get that talent to coalesce ahead of schedule?

Maybe.

The Lions can run, but can they pass?

The duo of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen may represent the most talent Penn State has had in the same backfield since Blair Thomas and DJ Dozier in the late-1980s.

Singleton accumulated 1,146 rushing and receiving yards with 13 combined touchdowns in his freshman campaign, and Allen wasn’t far behind — 1,055 total yards and 11 touchdowns. Singleton also averaged 24.9 yards per kickoff return with a touchdown.

Last year’s team also answered questions about an offensive line that looked overmatched in recent seasons. Led by left tackle Olu Fashanu, Penn State improved from 13th in the Big Ten in TFL allowed in 2021 to 4th in 2022.

The running backs and offensive line should be even better this year. But Penn State’s passing game is a complete unknown.

Sophomore Drew Allar takes over for 4-year starter Sean Clifford. Allar definitely looks the part. He’s a former 5-star recruit who many Penn State fans were pining for last year, and now it’s finally his time. But he’s yet to be tossed into the fire. And that’s also true of who he’ll be tossing the ball to.

Penn State’s top 3 targets last year — receivers Mitchell Tinsley and Parker Washington and tight end Brenton Strange — are all gone.

Kent State transfer Dante Cephas has received a great deal of offseason praise but hasn’t been practicing with the first team offense in training camp. Junior KeAndre Lambert-Smith and sophomore Harrison Wallace III may need to step up and provide the answers.

At tight end, Theo Johnson — who had 20 catches for 328 yards last year — should fill Strange’s shoes easily.

The development of the passing game will determine Penn State’s ceiling this year.

Penn State will win the B1G if …

It fields the best defense in the Big Ten. And that is a distinct possibility. The Nittany Lions have playmakers on all 3 levels.

It begins up front with the defensive end tandem of Adisa Isaac and Chop Robinson. Throw in outside linebacker Abdul Carter, and Penn State has the perfect recipe for leading the B1G in sacks for the 2nd straight season.

Carter is 1 of 3 returning starters in Penn State’s linebacking corps, joined by Curtis Jacobs and middle linebacker Tyler Eldson. However, that may not remain true by the end of the year. Rising sophomore Kobe King should turn middle linebacker into a 50-50 split, or he might take over the starting job entirely.

King’s twin brother, Kalen, is the star of Penn State’s secondary. Kalen was thrown into the fire last year when opponents decided they’d rather throw in his direction than Joey Porter Jr.’s. He responded with 18 pass breakups and 3 interceptions to go along with 30 tackles.

Defensive coordinator Manny Diaz’s most difficult task is replacing safety Ji’Ayir Brown, who was drafted by the 49ers. Sophomore Zakee Wheatley, who had 2 interceptions and a forced fumble as a reserve, may prove up to that task.

The 2022 Nittany Lions ranked 5th in the B1G in scoring defense and 7th in total defense. If they can get into the top 3 in both categories — an easier task for defenses in the B1G West than the East — Penn State is a legitimate title contender.

And if the Lions finish No. 1 in both, Penn State will be the Big Ten champ.

Game-by-game predictions

Week 1: West Virginia (L)

While the expectations are sky-high for Penn State this year, they are rock-bottom for West Virginia. The Mountaineers are picked last in the Big 12 — behind even newcomers UCF, Cincinnati, BYU and Houston. The Nittany Lions are favored by 3 touchdowns for good reason.

But the Crystal Ball sees the stunner of the year.

West Virginia has the best offensive line Penn State will see until the Michigan game, and it will allow the Mountaineers to play keep-away. Combine that with the jitters of Allar’s first career start, and an upset is brewing to drop Franklin to 8-5 all-time in season openers.

Week 2: Delaware (W)

Wayne and Garth know the Blue Hens have no chance against a highly motivated Penn State team.

Week 3: at Illinois (W)

The fires of Week 1 will prepare Allar for his first road win. And he will be needed — Illinois has one of the few defenses capable shutting down Penn State’s running game.

Week 4: Iowa (L)

The White Out feels like a surefire win. There’s just 1 problem — Phil Parker’s defense, which should have a field day against an inexperienced quarterback and an uncertain receiving corps.

Granted, Iowa’s offense won’t be doing much against Penn State’s defense either. Don’t expect a repeat of the infamous 6-4 game, but do expect this to be the lowest-scoring game of the season. And with the Lions dropping to 2-2, expect a lot of grumbling.

Week 5: at Northwestern (W)

Singleton and Allen will each break 150 rushing yards against the Wildcats. Heck, let’s make it 200 apiece.

Week 6: Bye

Week 7: UMass (W)

UKiddingMe? A week before playing Ohio State, Penn State hosts the Minutemen — an FBS team trapped in an FCS body. The Buckeyes, on the other hand, will be visiting Purdue — never a safe trip for a Top 5 team.

Not that anyone in Happy Valley will be complaining.

Week 8: at Ohio State (L)

It’ll be close — painfully close. But with the Nittany Lions obsessed with shutting down defensive end JT Tuimoloau after last year’s masterful performance, another Buckeye defensive playmaker such as Jack Sawyer, Mike Hall Jr., Tommy Eichenberg or Lathan Ransom will step up for a game-sealing play late in the fourth quarter.

Week 9: Indiana (W)

This schedule sets up in a way that allows Penn State to absolutely cream an opponent following its disappointments. Such will be the case for the Hoosiers.

Week 10: at Maryland (W)

A rowdy crowd will turn out with the hopes of watching the Terps supplant the Nittany Lions as the No. 3 team in the East. It won’t happen, as Penn State’s defensive front will dominate Maryland’s inexperienced offensive line for one of the season’s highest sack totals.

Week 11: Michigan (L)

Penn State’s defensive improvement will continue in Year 2 under Diaz. But enough to make up for surrendering an astounding 418 rushing yards to Michigan a year ago? Not quite. Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards will again be ready to run Penn State over.

Week 12: Rutgers (W)

This schedule sets up in a way that allows Penn State to absolutely cream an opponent following its disappointments. Such will be the case for the Scarlet Knights.

Week 13: vs. Michigan State in Detroit (W)

Fighting for bowl eligibility, the Spartans will throw the first punch and build an early lead. Perhaps even by 2-3 scores. But in leading an epic comeback, Allar will give us a taste of why he’s poised to dominate the B1G in 2024.

2023 Projection: 8-4 (6-3), 3rd in B1G East

#WeAre

The caravan from which the Crystal Ball was purchased is a firm believer in curses. And though we attempted to return the orb for a refund when these results came out, by that time the caravan had skipped town.

The curse of the Big Ten’s No. 3 will continue in 2023. But Penn State has far too much talent for its fall to be as pronounced as the past 5 versions of the B1G’s 3rd-best team. With a bowl win, the Nittany Lions would still finish in the Top 25.

The proper 2022 comparison for Penn State this year isn’t Texas A&M or Oklahoma, both of which finished unranked after beginning in the preseason top 10. It’s preseason No. 5 Notre Dame, which rebounded from a loss at Ohio State and a shocking home loss to a team from West Virginia (Marshall) to finish 18th in the final AP poll.

September is full of challenges for a young quarterback. If Penn State can make it through that unscathed, Allar may indeed be ready to beat Ohio State this year.

The Crystal Ball anticipates some hiccups. And they will no doubt be frustrating. But Penn State fans shouldn’t lose optimism.

Franklin has the nucleus of a future Big Ten championship team and potential national championship team in Happy Valley. That time is just more likely to come next year.