There was a flash of good news for Indiana in an otherwise disappointing 2022 season. A blur, really.

His name is Jaylin Lucas, and he became the first Indiana freshman to be named a first team all-American since program legend George Taliaferro — the man who integrated IU football — in 1945.

But Lucas’ breakout season also highlighted Indiana’s problems.

Lucas was the only kickoff returner in the FBS with multiple return touchdowns last season, and part of the issue was that opponents were kicking off by the bunches against the Hoosiers. Indiana allowed a B1G-worst 33.9 points per game last year — 4.6 ppg worse than 13th-place Rutgers.

Not good.

Even more alarming? That porous defense isn’t even the biggest question mark facing the Hoosiers heading into 2023. In fact, it might not even be a top-2 question mark.

Is there a quarterback in the house?

In the 2020s, Indiana quarterback is becoming a position every bit as perilous as Spinal Tap drummer.

Michael Penix Jr. was destined to surpass Antwaan Randle El in Indiana’s record books until destiny decided Penix would suffer chronic injuries every year. Penix transferred to Washington last year and finally spent more time on the field than the training table — likely a nod to the Huskies’ offensive line.

Penix led the nation with 357 passing yards a game and didn’t miss a single game.

His replacements at IU… did not do those things. Ballyhooed transfer Connor Bazelak was a major bust. He completed 55.2% of his passes while only averaging 5.4 yards per attempt in a precision offense. Bazelak is now at Bowling Green.

Jack Tuttle had a promising start against Penn State before leaving the game with a season-ending injury in the second quarter. He’s now backing up JJ McCarthy at Michigan.

Tuttle’s replacement, Brendan Sorsby, completed 3 of 6 attempts for 8 yards and an interception before getting pulled for Dexter Williams II.

Williams led the Hoosiers to an improbable comeback win over Michigan State despite completing only 2 passes. Williams tore up the Spartans with 16 carries for 86 yards.

A week later, Williams was lost when he tore his ACL on Indiana’s 2nd drive of the game against Purdue. At best, he’ll be out for this September and possibly into October.

Until then, Tom Allen must decide between Sorsby and Tennessee transfer Tayven Jackson as his starter. If nothing else, Jackson brings good vibes — he’s the younger brother of former IU basketball star Trayce Jackson-Davis.

Hoosiers need kids who can block

Indiana had the Big Ten’s worst offensive line last year. The Hoosiers allowed a league-worst 97 tackles for loss and finished 13th in sacks allowed despite having an offense predicated on getting the ball out quickly.

Allen addressed the issue by hiring Bob Bostad, who has had stints as an offensive line coach for Wisconsin, the Tennessee Titans and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

In terms of personnel, there isn’t much change. But the return of left tackle Matthew Bedford, who was lost for the year after the season opener, should bolster the group. His leadership and talent were both sorely missed.

With the inexperience at quarterback, it’s essential that the Hoosiers establish the run this year. That can only be done by winning up front.

A successful season for Indiana would be …

Indiana fans shouldn’t view a bowl appearance as the arbiter of what makes for a successful 2023. The quarterback situation is too unsettled for it to be a realistic expectation.

Plus, the typical IU bowl path is something like “Go 3-0 in non-conference games; beat Rutgers, Maryland and Purdue.”

The Hoosiers have a tough non-conference game against old nemesis Jeff Brohm and Louisville. Maryland has its best team since joining the B1G. Drawing Illinois and Wisconsin out of the West won’t help the cause at all. (Yes, the Hoosiers beat the Illini last year, but Illinois is still spicy about that outcome.)

Top priority is winning back the Old Oaken Bucket in a transition year for Purdue.

Next? Figuring out who this program’s starting quarterback will be in 2024. Whether it’s Sorsby, Jackson or even Williams, someone needs to erase the notion that there will be a competition next spring.

The other big success will be if Lucas develops into a full-fledged Deebo Samuel-style Swiss Army knife on offense. Other undersized speed demons will be attracted to IU’s offense if he does.

If Allen can head into this offseason able to sell transfers on the concept of playing with an exciting young quarterback in an explosive attack, Indiana can get back to a successful level in 2024.

Game-by-game predictions

Week 1: vs. Ohio State (L)

Best to get the ugly one out of the way early. This is the most lopsided rivalry in the Big Ten, and it will remain that way. Indiana’s secondary is uncertain, and Ohio State’s passing attack is always certain. It’s a win if the Hoosiers can keep their own fans from piling into Upstairs Pub at halftime.

Week 2: vs. Indiana State (W)

This would have been a heck of a super regional matchup last college baseball season. It will not be a heck of a football game. It’s a loss if the Hoosiers don’t keep their own fans from piling into Upstairs Pub at halftime.

Week 3: vs. Louisville in Indianapolis (L)

Just when you thought you could escape Jeff Brohm … well, you can’t. Brohm went 4-1 against the Hoosiers at Purdue, and he’ll continue his mastery here. He might have gone into spring football with a better grasp of Indiana’s roster than his own.

Week 4: vs. Akron (W)

Akron went 2-10 last year with only 1 of those wins coming against an FBS opponent. But be careful not to sleep on the Zips — 6 of those losses were by 1 possession in Joe Moorhead’s first year with the moribund program.

The Zips will give the Hoosiers a test before suffering another 1-score defeat.

Week 5: at Maryland (L)

Want a play to sum up the 2022 Hoosiers?

With Maryland clinging to a 31-27 fourth quarter lead, Indiana had the Terps where they wanted them: facing third-and-9 from their own 34 with starting quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa out of the game due to an injury.

Cue running back Roman Hemby, who sliced the Hoosiers for 46 yards on third-and-long. Maryland finished the drive with a touchdown to put the game away.

This is a game where Indiana will either cover the point spread but lose, or give up a cheap late score that allows Maryland to cover and leave IU bettors fuming.

Week 6: Bye

Week 7: at Michigan (L)

Prepare for another classic “final score makes the game look more lopsided than it actually is” showing against the Wolverines. The teams were tied at halftime last year before Michigan closed the game with a 21-0 finish.

Coming off the bye, Indiana will again be a handful in the first half. And Harbaugh’s wrecking crew will again do what it does in the second half.

Week 8: vs. Rutgers (W)

Rutgers overcame the most intimidating atmosphere in sports the last time it visited Memorial Stadium. The Hoosiers cannot allow it to happen again. Look for shirtless fans to storm the field after a walk-off field goal lifts IU to the win.

Week 9: at Penn State (L)

The Nittany Lions are going to make Michael Penix’s dive for the pylon feel like it happened centuries ago. This will be even more lopsided than the Ohio State game. Underdogs can throw some surprising wrinkles in Week 1. By Week 9, that’s out the window.

Week 10: vs. Wisconsin (L)

It won’t be as ugly as the 83-20 loss to the Badgers in 2010. But it won’t surprise if the point total is somewhere in that neighborhood with both teams going up-tempo on offense. Let’s call it 62-34, Badgers.

Week 11: at Illinois (L)

Last year, Illinois played in Week Zero, giving Indiana the benefit of a week of fresh tape on the Illini. And even that little edge may have been a difference-maker in a 23-20 win.

That edge doesn’t exist here against an Illinois program that took major strides forward after the IU loss. Furthermore, Illinois players and fans are still bent out of shape about this play from last year’s game:

Bret Bielema will try to leave skid marks on the Hoosiers — just as he did in 2010 when he was at Wisconsin.

Week 12: vs. Michigan State (L)

Last season Michigan State outgained IU by 252 yards, allowed only 2 completions despite having 1 of the nation’s worst pass defenses, converted 50% of its third down attempts … and still lost. It has to be among the unlikeliest outcomes in the history of either program.

Who rallies from a 17-point deficit with 2 completions?

Unfortunately for IU, I suspect the embarrassment from that outcome will leave the Spartans highly motivated to take back the Old Brass Spittoon.

Week 13: at Purdue (W)

Lose an Old Brass Spittoon; gain an Old Oaken Bucket.

A year ago, the Hoosiers had to junk their whole offensive game plan a quarter into the game and still managed to test a Purdue team fighting for the Big Ten West title.

The Boilers don’t have the likes of Aidan O’Connell, Charlie Jones and Payne Durham to lead the way this season. Allen will win his debut against new Purdue coach Ryan Walters.

2023 Projection: 4-8 (2-7), 6th in B1G East

#IUFB

Will another losing season be enough to turn up the pressure on Allen’s employment status this offseason?

If it happens with Tayven Jackson establishing himself as a bona fide starter, the answer should be no. Athletic director Scott Dolson is surely being a realist here: this is not the skeleton or schedule of a bowl-worthy team. But it needs to be one next year.

If the Hoosiers go into December with that feeling like an attainable goal, this is an effective “stop the bleeding” season. But if the bottom really drops out — and we’re talking 2-10 or worse here — that changes the equation.

But the Crystal Ball doesn’t foresee that level of ugliness for Indiana.

An improved offensive line will pave lanes for Lucas and fellow running back Josh Henderson. Cam Camper and Donaven McCauley will develop into effective targets regardless of quarterback. And the Hoosiers should make enough overall progress to assure Allen of making 2024 his prove-it season.