Finally, we’re here. The Rose Bowl will be played in just a few short hours. After 4 weeks of buildup, we’ll get a powerhouse semifinal matchup between Michigan and Alabama in the final year of the 4-team Playoff.

Cheers to that.

The last time an SEC team was in the Rose Bowl was Georgia and Oklahoma facing off in what turned out to be a game for the ages in the 2017 season. Does that mean history will repeat itself and we’re in for another thriller? Here’s hoping.

What we do know is that in the wake of the Connor Stalions sign-stealing scandal, Alabama prepared in a different way than normal. We also know that Michigan has been in this stage twice and come up short in each of the past 2 seasons, though as of Friday afternoon, the top-ranked Wolverines are slight favorites.

What else do we know about this matchup?

Here are my final thoughts (and a prediction) for Monday’s showdown in Pasadena:

1. Michigan won’t win this game by handing the ball off 32 consecutive times

Bold, I know. Next, I’ll predict that the team that scores the most points will win.

But let’s not forget that against the nation’s No. 1 run defense (Penn State), JJ McCarthy handed the ball off 32 consecutive times. That was with Jim Harbaugh suspended. Clearly, the Wolverines saw that they had an advantage in the trenches and played to that in a game they had to have.

Against Alabama? That won’t fly. And I know, Penn State statistically has a better run defense than Alabama, which definitely doesn’t shut down the ground game like the 2015 or 2017 defense did. This could still be a successful run-first offense for the Wolverines. It’d be surprising if they suddenly deviated from Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards, especially knowing that the Tide have had a couple of games (LSU and Auburn) in which they allowed 200 on the ground.

But history suggests that you’re not going to beat Alabama being 1-dimensional.

In the entire Playoff era, Alabama has 13 losses. In every one of those games, Alabama allowed at least 170 passing yards, and the only instances in which the opposing team failed to hit 220 passing yards was at LSU in 2022 and at Auburn in 2019. McCarthy has to make some big-time throws downfield for Michigan to outlast the Tide. In his past 5 games, he hit 150 passing yards once and he accounted for just 1 score during that stretch.

And for what it’s worth, while McCarthy hasn’t necessarily been tasked with throwing the ball 40 times per game, he’s had the exact same passes (118) in that stretch as Jalen Milroe, who has been a much different player since the calendar turned to November.

Speaking of Milroe …

2. Jalen Milroe isn’t the guy we saw against Texas

He’s just not. If you’ve been paying attention, you know that. If you saw him put Georgia away, you know that, as well.

Milroe has just 1 turnover since halftime of the Tennessee game. The guy who looked like a walking interception early in the season has become a more decisive, confident weapon who can beat you in a variety of ways. The deep ball is a major asset. He has completed 19 passes of 20 yards since the start of November — including one on 4th-and-31. He averaged 10.2 yards/attempt in that stretch while completing 67% of his passes.

A liability, Milroe is not. He’s the best quarterback that Michigan faced so far, and it’s not particularly close. That’s not a knock on Taulia Tagovailoa, who finished his career as the Big Ten’s all-time leading passer. But Tagovailoa led 1 of 2 top-50 passing offenses that the Wolverines faced in 2023, both of which threw for at least 240 yards.

No, Alabama doesn’t have a top-50 passing offense. But if Michigan fans believe that Milroe is on the level of someone like Drew Allar, they’re in for a rude awakening. Michigan players and coaches don’t appear to have that mindset. Alex Orji provided the scout team look for Milroe, which makes sense given his athleticism at 6-3, 236 pounds.

Can Orji be to Michigan in preparing for Milroe what Stetson Bennett IV was to Georgia in preparing for Baker Mayfield? That’s an all-important question.

3. Jim Harbaugh vs. non-Big Ten Power 5 teams has been __________.

“Underwhelming.”

Ever since the Wolverines dominated Florida in the Citrus Bowl at the end of the 2015 season, it has been a tough go. Here’s Michigan’s track record against non-Big Ten Power 5 times since the start of the 2016 season:

  • 2016 — W, 45-28 vs. Colorado
  • 2016 — L, 33-32 vs. No. 10 Florida State in Orange Bowl
  • 2017 — W, 33-19 vs. No. 17 Florida in Dallas
  • 2017 — L, 26-19 vs. South Carolina in Outback Bowl
  • 2018 — L, 24-17 at No. 12 Notre Dame
  • 2018 — L, 41-15 vs. No. 10 Florida in Peach Bowl
  • 2019 — W, 45-14 vs. No. 8 Notre Dame
  • 2019 — L, 35-16 vs. No. 9 Alabama in Citrus Bowl
  • 2021 — W, 31-10 vs. Washington
  • 2021 — L, 34-11 vs. No. 3 Georgia in Orange Bowl (Playoff semifinal)
  • 2022 — L, 51-45 vs. No. 3 TCU in Fiesta Bowl (Playoff semifinal)

That’s a 4-7 mark against non-Big Ten Power 5 teams in the past 8 seasons. Sure, 6 of those 7 teams were top-15 squads. Last I checked, so is Alabama. The last time that Michigan traveled away from home and beat a non-Big Ten Power 5 team was the 2017 season opener against Florida … which eventually won 4 games and had a midseason firing of Jim McElwain. It’s also 6 consecutive bowl losses for Harbaugh, including 2 consecutive in the Playoff semifinals.

Does that mean Michigan is fraudulent? Of course not. In this era of college football, a Power 5 team that goes 13-0 is no joke. It’s the second consecutive 13-0 start for Michigan.

Rare it is that we see a Playoff team rank No. 4 in percentage of returning production the following season. Michigan checked that box. Nothing we’ve seen so far from the Wolverines — amid a roller-coaster season off the field — suggests that they’re anything but better than last year’s team. Doubt in Michigan has to be rooted in that history against non-Big Ten foes. At least somewhat. Maybe it also has to do with the 4 consecutive losses to SEC foes.

Now is as good a time as ever for Michigan to exorcise those demons.

4. Nick Saban as an underdog has been ______________.

“Dominant.”

In the past 15 years, Saban has been an underdog 5 times. Here’s how those games played out:

  • 2009 — W, 32-13 vs. No. 1 Florida in SEC Championship
  • 2015 — W, 38-10 at No. 8 Georgia
  • 2021 — W, vs. 41-24 No. 1 Georgia in SEC Championship
  • 2021 — L, vs. 33-18 No. 3 Georgia in CFP National Championship
  • 2023 — W, 27-24 vs. No. 1 Georgia in SEC Championship

That’s a 4-1 mark, with 3 of those wins coming by 3 scores. Not too shabby? Yeah.

It remains to be seen if Alabama will hold as a slight underdog by kickoff. That line has hovered around Michigan -1.5-2 throughout the postseason, but that could be shifted by the time this game kicks off. Either way, Saban will have the entire state of Alabama convinced that the Tide are 28-point underdogs. As he would call it, that’s “yummy rat poison.”

Of course, the only common denominator with 2009 Alabama vs. 2023 Alabama is Saban. But this team, much like Michigan, has embraced an “us against the world” mantra. This is only the third instance in which a team lost in September and made the Playoff.

The other 2 were 2014 Ohio State and 2015 Alabama … both of which won it all.

5. Why both teams could go into halftime saying “we got ’em right where we want ’em”

I could close my eyes and see a world in which Michigan gets out to an ideal start and is leading at the break. Maybe McCarthy finds veteran Cornelius Johnson for a touchdown or we get a little trickery with Corum hitting the emerging tight end Colston Loveland on a halfback pass.

The Wolverines haven’t trailed at halftime all season. Better yet, the Wolverines haven’t had a second-half deficit all season. The latest they trailed in a game was the 11:19 mark of the second quarter against Indiana. That’s bananas.

I’d expect Michigan to lead at halftime once again. After all, that’s been pretty typical for Alabama. This 2023 squad trailed at the half 4 times, which is the most of any Saban-era team. Even the 2007 squad only had 3 halftime deficits in the regular season.

As weird as it sounds, something like a 14-10 halftime lead for Michigan could have both teams feeling confident. Of course, if Michigan is +3 in turnovers and it missed on a couple of 4th-down conversions in plus territory, that sentiment might be a bit different. Opportunities can’t be wasted in a game that’s expected to be low-scoring.

And a prediction … Alabama 24, Michigan 20

My gut says the winner of this Playoff semifinal will win it all. I say that even though I believe Texas checks the most boxes of a title team in the Playoff era. But it could have shades of Ohio State-Georgia last season.

So why does Alabama end up on the right side of that?

A few reasons.

One is that Alabama’s passing game figured things out at the right time, even without a game-changer on the outside. Isaiah Bond and Jermaine Burton have both shown that they can be that guy at different times. I expect that to happen against a Michigan secondary that hasn’t been tested much in 2023. In a game like this, Milroe’s maturation as a passer is paramount, especially in the likely event that Michigan keeps him in the pocket and successfully spies him.

Michigan’s ground game will give Alabama problems at times. That’ll fuel a halftime lead for the Wolverines. I’d expect some chunk plays from Corum, and McCarthy’s mobility will keep a few drives alive.

But sooner or later, Michigan will need to string together some key conversions on 3rd and long. That’s where Alabama can pin its ears back with Dallas Turner and Chris Braswell to force McCarthy into some early decisions. That’s not a winning formula for a team with limited pass-catching options.

There was a lot made of the Wolverines’ reaction to getting Alabama instead of Florida State. While I don’t think there was a fear, I think if you gave those players truth serum, they would’ve admitted that the Tide present a brutal matchup for what Michigan does well. That’s evident by day’s end.

For the 10th time in 15 years, the Tide roll to a national championship berth.

MORE ROSE BOWL COVERAGE

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Michigan hasn’t faced a QB as great as Jalen Milroe

Is JJ McCarthy good enough to beat Bama?