Tradition Crystal Ball: Predicting every Michigan State football game in 2023

Editor’s note: Saturday Tradition’s annual Crystal Ball series continues today with Ohio State. We’ll stay with the B1G East all week. Next week, we’ll predict every game for every B1G West team.

Previously: Indiana | Maryland | Michigan

A year ago at this time, Michigan State fans were feting Mel Tucker online with the phrase “Tuck Comin’ ” — an homage to feared stick-up man Omar from “The Wire.”

There was good reason for the exuberance. The Spartans were coming in hot off of an 11-2 season, and Tucker was 2-0 head-to-head against Jim Harbaugh and Michigan. Tucker’s approval rating in East Lansing was somewhere in the Tom Izzo/Magic Johnson stratosphere.

Fast forward to the present, and there is now a segment of Spartan fans who wish Tuck was leavin’.

In 2022, Michigan State fell to earth with enough velocity to kill the dinosaurs.

The Spartans finished 5-7, blowing their chance at a bowl berth by squandering a 17-point second half lead to Indiana in the home finale. The Hoosiers made the comeback despite completing only 2 passes, which did a nice job of summing up Michigan State’s season in a nutshell.

Alas, that didn’t even come close to being the low point of MSU’s season.

The postgame fracas against Michigan will forever live on as one of the lowest points in Michigan State football history. Eight Michigan State players were suspended after jumping a pair of Michigan players in Michigan Stadium’s single-laned tunnel to the locker rooms.

Criminal charges were filed against 7 of the players in Ann Arbor, with defensive back Khary Crump eventually sentenced to 12 months probation while the others received plea deals to have the charges dismissed.

That tumultuous backdrop set the tone for an offseason of uncertainty.

The portal swings both ways

Michigan State’s 2021 revival was defined by Tucker’s success mining the transfer portal. No addition was more significant than Wake Forest running back Kenneth Walker III, who went and had one of the most incredible seasons in Michigan State history.

Last year, Walker’s talent level became that much more evident in his absence.

When Walker arrived in East Lansing, the Spartans improved from 122nd nationally in rushing yardage to 53rd, increasing their ground production by 84 yards per game. During his NFL rookie campaign, MSU plummeted to 110th nationally in rushing average. The Spartans fell off by 62 yards per game.

Tucker is taking a couple swings at finding his new Walker this year, adding UConn’s Nathan Carter and South Florida’s Jaren Mangham to join Jalen Berger in the backfield.

But the portal door also swung the other direction this spring. On the final day before the spring portal window closed, quarterback Payton Thorne and leading wide receiver Keon Coleman left Michigan State. Thorne is now at Auburn and Coleman at Florida State.

That leaves Michigan State’s passing game a mystery heading into the season. Noah Kim, who looked better than Thorne in the spring, is expected to start over ballyhooed redshirt freshman Katin Houser. But excluding senior Tre Mosley, Kim’s working with a group of targets every bit as green as he is.

Kim’s spring game showing also begs another question.

Did he look good because he’s ready to be a Big Ten starter, or because he faced Michigan State’s secondary?

About that pass defense …

The $95 million question about Tucker is how a career defensive coordinator has yet to field a defense worth a hoot as a head coach.

In 2021, the Spartans made a run to the Peach Bowl despite giving up the most passing yards in the country. Michigan State improved to 86th in that department last year, which is nothing to sneeze at. But though they were better against the pass, the Spartans still weren’t playmakers. They finished dead last nationally with 2 interceptions.

Will both pieces finally come together this season?

Don’t hold your breath.

However, the Spartans will have the ability to be closer to their 2021 form along the front 7. In fact, that stands to be this team’s strength.

Cal Haladay and Jacoby Windmon are 2 of the Big Ten’s best linebackers, and the hope is that Darius Snow will rejoin the mix after missing nearly all of last season with a leg injury. Defensive tackle Simeon Barrow leads a defensive line that might prove disruptive enough to help the secondary.

And let’s be real. In the B1G, you can usually get by with a shaky pass defense as long as you’re dominant against the run — just as the Spartans demonstrated 2 years ago.

Tuck — comin’, goin’ or stayin’ the same?

What is Mel Tucker Football?

His single season at Colorado hardly counts. He was taking over a rebuild that never got off the ground because Michigan State called. You can’t count 2020, either, as it was the worst possible year to be a first-year coach anywhere.

So are we to believe what our eyes told us in 2021, or 2022? Or will the real answer reveal itself in 2023?

Bad news, Spartans fans. The answer isn’t going to reveal itself until 2024.

The late defections of Thorne and Coleman underline the fact this is a bridge year for Michigan State. Tucker signed the B1G’s No. 4 recruiting class, and that will begin to bear fruit a year from now with either Kim or Houser leading the offense.

This year’s goal, basically, is to not fall off the bridge into the canyon below.

Game-by-game predictions

Week 1: Central Michigan (W)

Be very, very wary of the Chippewas, who are 3-8 against the Spartans since 1990. This will be a surprisingly stout test. But in the end, one of Michigan State’s young playmakers will step up to swing the game and put last year’s bad vibes back in the closet.

Week 2: Richmond (W)

There’s no reason to be wary of the Spiders, unless you are former Major League outfielder Glenallen Hill, who once went on the injured list because he fell through a glass table in his hotel room after waking from a nightmare about spiders.

Week 3: Washington (L)

Michigan State finally sees the last of Michael Penix Jr., who will again pick apart the Spartans’ secondary to lift his career record to 3-1 against MSU.

Week 4: Maryland (L)

Getting Taulia Tagovailoa a week after Penix hardly seems fair when you’re notoriously weak against the pass. Despite never leaving Spartan Stadium in September, Michigan State finishes 2-2 in the opening month.

Week 5: at Iowa (W)

Cade McNamara has never beaten Michigan State. Why start now? Iowa’s passing game will be better this year, but still not elite enough to exploit the Spartans, who will grind out a surprising road win.

Week 6: Bye

Week 7: at Rutgers (L)

Rutgers’ lowly offense managed to gain 460 yards on the Spartans a year ago, but the Scarlet Knights lost because of 108 penalty yards. They’ll clean it up at home, bringing an end to a couple weeks of good vibes for Michigan State.

Week 8: Michigan (L)

A lot of eyeballs will be focused on Spartan Stadium thanks to last year’s mess. The game will be closer than many expect — MSU players will remember the labels Michigan fans gave them last year, and it will fuel their intensity. But this team just doesn’t have enough weapons to defeat the loaded Wolverines.

Week 9: at Minnesota (L)

PJ Fleck’s boat rowed over the Spartans 34-7 last year. Don’t expect things to get much better with the scene shifting to Minnesota.

Week 10: Nebraska (W)

It’s only Nov. 4, yet it’s the season finale at Spartan Stadium thanks to the Penn State game moving to Ford Field. The Spartans will send their seniors out with a bang … and then play 3 more games.

Week 11: at Ohio State (L)

The Buckeyes remain the worst possible matchup for Michigan State. Another blowout at the hands of Ryan Day awaits.

Week 12: at Indiana (W)

Last year’s loss to the Hoosiers is the type of thing that sits in the pit of your stomach for the ensuing 365 days.

Week 13: vs. Penn State in Detroit (L)

Can the Spartans upset the Nittany Lions to gain bowl eligibility? Until I see a home team win a game at Ford Field on Thanksgiving weekend, I’m not betting on it. Should’ve kept the game in East Lansing.

But in a rivalry that’s all-square at 18-18-1 all-time, a multi-overtime classic is possible. And if it provides a star turn for Kim or Houser, it’s reason to feel pretty good going into next year.

2023 Projection: 5-7 (3-6), 5th in B1G East

#RELENTLESS

Make no mistake, this season has a chance to be pretty ugly for Michigan State. The Spartans have the greatest possible variance of any team in the Big Ten. As in “Wayne’s World,” there are multiple potential endings.

There’s the scary ending. It begins with the nightmare start: a season-opening loss to Central Michigan.

The Chips went 4-8 last year, but Jim McElwain led them to MAC championships in 2019 and 2021. Odd-numbered years clearly are his thing. CMU has 9 defensive starters back to face a first-time starting quarterback, though McElwain has yet to beat a Power 5 opponent at Central Michigan. This game could very well be the barometer of the entire Michigan State season.

With a loss, 3-9 is a strong possibility. Maybe even 2-10, at which point the unthinkable question of buying out the final 8 years of Tucker’s contract must start being asked with sincerity.

There’s also a happy ending.

Led by senior center Nick Samac and left guard JD Duplain, the offensive line paves the way for the running game to resemble its 2021 form and keep defenses honest against a fledgling passing attack. Michigan State turns the Rutgers game into a win and adds a Top 10 stunner over either Washington or Penn State.

Michigan State finishes 7-5, and there is a groundswell of excitement for an up-and-coming quarterback leading a talented young team in 2024 — more or less the same ingredients as 2021.

Though the Crystal Ball has envisioned both of these outcomes, it is the middle ground that is most frequently occurring: another 5-7 showing that leaves the big questions about the direction of Michigan State’s program unanswered until next year.