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Hammerin’ the B1G: USC’s hot start could make Michigan game must-win for Lincoln Riley
By Paul Harvey
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Lincoln Riley entered the season with plenty of question marks and what initially looked like a daunting early season schedule for USC. Now, with a 2-0 start and a much-improved defense, the Trojans head to Ann Arbor with an entirely different feel for the season.
In the latest AP Poll, USC held firm at No. 11 in the country in spite of a Week 3 bye. That is significant because only Ohio State (No. 3) and Penn State (No. 10) are ranked ahead of the Trojans when it comes to teams with less than 3 games played.
USC is also immediately ahead of 4 teams with a 3-0 record, including Utah, Kansas State, Oklahoma State and Oklahoma. The Trojans will also enter their first-ever Big Ten game as the higher-ranked team against Michigan — and a surprising road favorite in the Big House.
Michigan, thanks to a Week 2 loss to Texas, is at No. 18 in the country. The Wolverines also look lost offensively, and that’s major news for USC’s hopes this weekend and the improved defense of the program.
When the Week 4 Big Ten lines were dropped on Sunday, USC opened as a 3-point road favorite. The Trojans are 5.5-point favorites at bet365, and fans can use Tradition’s Michigan sportsbook apps to get in on the action.
Make no mistake about it: USC should be the better team and a clear favorite in this one. And just about every major rating system agrees.
ESPN’s Football Power Index continues to be negative on Michigan, dropping the Wolverines 4 more spots to 21 after beating Arkansas State. The same system has USC at No. 12, though the Trojans were No. 8 before sitting idle in Week 3.
The FPI even favors USC despite the game coming in Ann Arbor with the Trojans carrying a 57.7% win probability into the Big House. Prior to the start of the season, Michigan was given a 65.7% chance to win this game.
Why such the drastic swing? Yes, it does have to do with USC’s defense, but it is also about what we have seen from Michigan’s offense.
Davis Warren threw 3 interceptions in the win over Arkansas State, bringing Warren’s season total to 6 in 3 games played. That is the most in the entire Big Ten, and it has not been a murderer’s row of opponents (outside of Texas) for the Wolverines.
As a result of those struggles, Michigan is averaging just 329.3 yards of offense through 3 games and 23.3 points per game. That scoring total ranks 99th out of 134 teams this season.
So, what does that have to do with Lincoln Riley?
On the surface, calling this a must-win game does not add up. Riley’s job is not in jeopardy after the way the Trojans started the season, but this is the kind of game where a loss would warrant criticism of his coaching.
That’s not to say things will be easy. Michigan maintains some elite pieces on the defensive side of the ball, but it’s a great opportunity for Riley to pick apart the Wolverines with a great game plan.
It will also yield further insight on the true nature of USC’s defense. The win over LSU and shutout of Utah State have been nice, but Michigan presents a barometer that truly matters.
The Wolverines are offensively challenged at this venture, and being able to keep Michigan in check is a realistic goal for the Trojans. On the other hand, letting Donovan Edwards or Kalel Mullings run through the defense would be cause for concern.
Also consider the impact a win would have for the Trojans. The ensuing schedule consists of games vs. Wisconsin and at Minnesota before a mid-October visit from Penn State.
A win would solidify that USC should be a top 10 team, setting the stage for a potentially massive showdown against the Nittany Lions right around the corner.
Through that lens, I feel safe calling Saturday’s game a must-win for USC. Not because Riley is in jeopardy of anything negative, but because of the massive opportunity it presents.
Just a few short weeks ago, we were talking about the potential for a USC team with 2-3 losses coming out of September. Now, there is a major chance for the Trojans to finish the month undefeated and looking like a true contender for the College Football Playoff.
A win solidifies USC’s position as a team to be wary of all season long. But a loss, to this Michigan team, would bring all of Riley’s recent goodwill back down to earth.
Paul is a lifelong fan and student of all things college football. He has been covering college football since 2017 and the B1G since 2018.