Penn State football: Could West Virginia spoil the season-opening party for the No. 7 Nittany Lions?

Could West Virginia spoil the party?

Penn State opens its most anticipated season since at least 2017 under the lights Saturday at Beaver Stadium. It’s the starting debut for 5-star quarterback Drew Allar. It’s a chance for the program to show off Legacy Plaza and other upgrades to the venue and surrounding area for more than 100,000 paying customers and an NBC audience.

When the 137th season of Nittany Lions football kicks off at 7:30 or shortly thereafter, the deepest and most talented roster James Franklin has put together since arriving in State College in 2014 will take the field.

Do the Mountaineers, as 20.5-point underdogs, stand a chance vs. No. 7 Penn State? Alex Hickey, Saturday Tradition’s Big Ten columnist, thinks so. He actually picked the upset in his Crystal Ball series, citing a strong WVU offensive line and first-start jitters for Allar as reasons “the stunner of the year” will occur.

If it does, fans will be apoplectic.

Don’t worry, it won’t.

Scouting the Mountaineers

The Lions will beat a Power 5 opponent in an opener for the 3rd straight season, and this one won’t be as close as the B1G road victories over Purdue (35-31 in 2022) and Wisconsin (16-10 in 2021). The Mountaineers, 5-7 last year and also debuting an unproven starting quarterback in coach Neal Brown’s 5th season, are picked to finish last in the Big 12.

Penn State is 48-9-2 all-time against West Virginia — and 36-2-1 since 1956 — dating to the days when both programs were Independents in football. The teams last met in 1992, the year before PSU joined the Big Ten. The Lions haven’t lost within Pennsylvania’s borders in the series since 1954.

Yes, QBs short on experience can be unpredictable, and Allar — based on hype and expectations — might feel more pressure than Garrett Greene or Nicco Marchiol. But the 6-5, 243-pound Allar also displays way more arm talent than the 5-11 Greene and 6-1 Marchiol, 3-star recruits in 2020 and 2022, respectively. Green started last year’s final 2 games for WVU, going 1-1 with a combined stat line of 23-for-41, 252 yards, 3 TDs and 3 picks.

The Mountaineers do indeed appear strong up front, returning their entire starting offensive line, led by All-America candidate Zach Frazier at center. Phil Steele ranks the unit 9th best in the country. With Greene as a running threat to complement 238-pound lead back CJ Donaldson, West Virginia will try to pound the rock. But Penn State returns a loaded and beefed-up front 7 on defense. And West Virginia is not Michigan. Manny Diaz’s defense will make the Mountaineers 1-dimensional, then pressure Greene and/or Marchiol into a miserable night.

Allar won’t face nearly as much resistance. WVU lost several key pieces off the No. 116 scoring defense in the nation (32.9 ppg), including DT Dante Stills, a 6th-round NFL Draft pick. Also, Penn State returns a pretty stout o-line of its own, 14th nationally in Steele’s rankings, plus the No. 3 RB room in the country according the renowned analyst. As long as Allar isn’t too jittery to hand off to Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen, Penn State should be fine.

What to watch for

Assuming fans don’t have to fret the outcome, here are some issues worth tracking:

• Is Olu Fashanu healthy and looking like the NFL first-round offensive lineman he’s purported to be? The left tackle missed the final 5 games of last season, then was kept out of the spring game and an August camp live scrimmage. Franklin says he’s fully healthy and that the kid gloves treatment for the 20-year-old was precautionary. Saturday should provide reassurance.
• Will last year’s sensational freshman RB duo of Singleton and Allen continue to split carries evenly?
• Will 4-star true freshman LB Tony Rojas see action? Does PSU have another Abdul Carter on its hands?
• How does the WR rotation shake out? Camp reports have returnees KeAndre Lambert-Smith and Harrison Wallace III ahead of touted transfer Dante Cephas.
• Does redshirt freshman quarterback Beau Pribula see action? If so, is it in mop-up duty or in a special package?
• Who kicks and punts now that Jake Pinegar and Barney Amor are gone?

Full season outlook …

In the B1G, Penn State still ranks as a clear No. 3 behind Ohio State and Michigan. That’s why our Mr. Hickey can gaze into his Crystal Ball and see an opening upset and 8-4 finish this season. He’s not alone in presenting the idea that the Lions are a year away from their long-awaited breakthrough under Franklin. The program hasn’t had an 11-1 regular season since 2008.

Having covered the Lions for this website for several years now, it’s possible I’m viewing the program myopically, and through glasses with a dark-navy tint. But I’m buying the talent ranking and stats, and trusting my eyes. Led by Fashanu, the offensive line took a huge step forward last year; sacks taken dropped from 32 to 21 from the previous year, and yards per carry went up by 1.6 to 4.81. In Year 1 as DC, Diaz turned a bend-don’t-break unit into the B1G leader in sacks and tackles for loss.

Penn State should not lose to anyone other than the Buckeyes and Wolverines before January. And I have an optimistic hunch the Lions will pull out one of those. There is a path to 11-1. Here are potential pitfalls:

Sept. 2, vs. West Virginia: Anything can happen in an opener, and the Mountaineers have nothing to lose. Penn State’s No. 7 ranking and Allar’s 5-star hype put the pressure on the home team. But talent wins out. PSU will win by double-digits, if not cover the 20.5 points.

Sept. 16, at Illinois: After Delaware at home, Penn State hits the road for its B1G opener. (Where have I heard that before?) Bret Bielema has turned around the Illini, but he loses just about the entire secondary from last year’s defense that led the nation at 12.8 ppg allowed and with 24 interceptions. Allar will have to prove himself in this one, as Illinois might be stout enough up front to force OC Mike Yurcich to open up the passing game. But the Illini will have their own first-year starter in Luke Altmyer, a transfer from Ole Miss. Give me the QB who has been with his program since January of 2022 and leads the offense that didn’t lose the nation’s No. 3 rusher (Chase Brown).

Sept. 23, vs. Iowa: The Hawkeyes lost their top 2 tacklers to the NFL and a key DL to a gambling investigation. New starting QB Cade McNamara enters the season iffy with a leg injury. Penn State doesn’t have a great record in its White Out games, but it should prevail in this 7:30 p.m. tilt.

Oct. 21, at Ohio State: Penn State’s speed-based defense probably matches up with Ohio State’s juggernaut offense as well as anyone’s. Get rid of last year’s 4 turnovers, and the Lions will have a shot.

Nov. 11, vs. Michigan: Diaz’s defense must reduce last year’s 418-yard Wolverines rushing total at least in half. Penn State has won 2 of 3 and 5 of 7 at Beaver Stadium in this matchup, so another mauling is not inevitable. In fact, I picked an upset in my bold predictions piece.

Final (preseason) analysis

Right now, I don’t think B1G East rivals Maryland and Michigan State stand a chance against the Lions. That could change as soon as late Saturday night, or certainly by November when those game will be played.

But unless Allar completely falls on his face or gets injured, 10-2 should be the floor for this Penn State team. One more win, and our Nits are in the Playoff for the first time, ahead of schedule. I think it’s gonna happen.

Luke Glusco

Luke Glusco is a Penn State graduate and veteran journalist. He covers Penn State and occasionally writes about other Big Ten programs and topics. He also serves as the primary copy editor for Saturday Tradition.