Tradition Crystal Ball: Predicting every Ohio State football game in 2024

Editor’s note: Saturday Tradition’s annual Crystal Ball series continues with Ohio State. We’ll go in alphabetical order through the 18-team B1G.

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Welcome back to another installment of Tradition’s Crystal Ball series where we are predicting every game of the 2024 Big Ten season! The latest includes a look at one of the teams with the most anticipation and expectations in the entire country.

That team would be Ohio State with Ryan Day facing arguably the most pressure in the sport but possessing a program unlike most others in the country. OSU’s talent level has always been elite, but that level has been pushed even higher in 2024.

Not only did Ohio State retain just about every major piece on defense, but the program also added superstar transfer Caleb Downs, arguably the nation’s best defensive back.

On offense, Ohio State lost Marvin Harrison Jr. and starting quarterback Kyle McCord, though one of those departures is a bit larger than the others. Ohio State used the portal extensively, adding a host of impact players likely to play starting roles or at least see key snaps with QB Will Howard, RB Quinshon Judkins, TE Will Kacmarek and offensive lineman Seth McLaughlin joining the fold.

If that’s not enough, Day himself finally relinquished more control of the offense, hiring former UCLA and Oregon coach Chip Kelly to coach QBs and lead the offense. They have close ties dating back to their time in New Hampshire decades ago, and their trust level and knowledge of elite offenses will be a tandem to monitor all season.

Now, all that’s left is for the Buckeyes to prove they are indeed one of the best on the football field. What does the Crystal Ball see ahead? Let’s get to it!

Game-by-game predictions

Week 1: vs. Akron (W)

Believe it or not, Akron has beaten Ohio State. The president was Grover Cleveland and Coca-Cola had just been sold in bottles for the first time. As in ever. If you are confused, that’s because the year was 1894.

OK, there’s no real point to that history lesson other than being really fascinating. Ohio State is 8-1 all-time vs. Akron and is 4-0 since resuming intermittent matchups in 2001. The Buckeyes won 59-7 in 2021 and the Zips are coming off a 2-10 mark a season ago. The only real question is whether Ohio State can cover a gargantuan spread with the Buckeyes set as a 50.5-point favorite at DraftKings.

Week 2: vs. Western Michigan (W)

Western Michigan was once a formidable MAC opponent under PJ Fleck, and the Broncos also went to 3 bowl games under Tim Lester. Fleck’s obviously now at Minnesota, and Lester is the OC at Iowa while WMU went 4-8 a season ago in Lance Taylor’s first year. That’s not going to scare teams in the upper echelon of the B1G. Ohio State even registered a blowout victory over the program in 2015 during the glory days of the Broncos under Fleck’s.

Any kinks remaining in the offense are likely to get worked out in Week 2, and fans should get ample opportunity to see multiple quarterbacks take snaps in the nonconference slate. Don’t be surprised if Ohio State pitches back-to-back shutouts to open the season, even with the expectation that the second string will see heavy usage early on.

Week 3: BYE

Week 4: vs. Marshall (W)

After wrapping up the home-and-home series with Notre Dame last season, Ohio State’s nonconference slate is taking a little break this fall. You can be sure Paul Finebaum and fans around the country will mock the nonconference schedule. You can equally be sure Ohio State doesn’t give a flip. Marshall is not a traditional pushover out of the Sun Belt with 7 straight bowl games and reaching the postseason 10 out of the past 11 seasons. But the Thundering Herd shouldn’t be a problem for Day’s group.

Let me use this portion to make one bold prediction: Ohio State’s starting defense will not allow a first-half point in nonconference play. No field goals. No touchdowns. OK, maybe that’s not bold per say considering the opponents, but I would still find that an impressive accomplishment.

Week 5: at Michigan State (W)

Alright, Week 5 features Ohio State’s first departure from the nonconference schedule, so surely the level of competition takes a step up … right? Well, not so much. Yes, Michigan State will be tougher than the likes of Akron, Western Michigan and Marshall, but that doesn’t mean much. Ohio State has won 8 straight since going 2-3 against the Spartans across the 2011-15 seasons. And the past 7 meetings have all been blowouts.

Jonathan Smith has a shot to build something special in East Lansing. I’m not discounting his pedigree as a program builder, and fans should not be shocked if the Spartans are a tougher team this year than last season. But that’s not going to be enough to account for the massive talent discrepancy. Ohio State rolls with another blowout to start the season.

Week 6: vs. Iowa (W)

Kirk Ferentz has beaten Ohio State twice, but the Hawkeyes had a functioning offense both times. A 33-7 win in 2004 and a 55-24 drubbing in 2017. Both victories also came in Iowa City, and this year’s game is in Columbus. And while I expect the offense to be better under Tim Lester, Iowa will be facing a unique defensive challenge in the Buckeyes.

Similar to 2022, I expect Iowa to produce some spirited defensive plays early on, but there just isn’t enough depth or firepower to keep Ohio State locked down for long. I don’t think the Buckeyes win by 44 points, but it’s not going to be a nail-biter, either.

Week 7: at Oregon (L)

After a comfortable start to the season, all eyes will be on Eugen in Week 7. Ohio State and Oregon, expected to be the B1G heavyweights this fall, will tangle with a matchup of Game of the Year potential nationally. If you’re not sold, ESPN Bet has the Ducks as a slim 1-point home favorite in the matchup of preseason top-5 programs. (Be sure to use Tradition’s sports betting apps in Ohio to take advantage of the best offers this season.)

A couple of factors at play here: Ohio State, though talented, will not be battle tested heading into this game. The Buckeyes hit the road just once prior to traveling to Eugene, but Spartan Stadium is not on the level of Autzen Stadium in midseason. This one will be a frenzy, and you can probably pencil in ESPN’s College GameDay for a visit. Oregon, eager to prove its spot in the new B1G, will have this one circled a long way off, and it will be a doozy. It’s pretty much a toss-up game here, so I’m giving a slight edge to Oregon with Ohio State facing the travel component. But don’t be surprised to a rematch in Indianapolis in the B1G title game.

Week 8: BYE

Week 9: vs. Nebraska (W)

Nebraska has been competitive in some matchups with Ohio State, including a 2021 battle that resulted in yet another close loss for then-head coach Scott Frost. Matt Rhule is intent on turning things around and producing some upsets, but it’s hard to see that playing out in 2024.

This will be Rhule’s first trip to Columbus with his Huskers, and Nebraska will be starting a true freshman QB (Dylan Raiola) or Heinrich Haarberg, who is still inexperienced. Either scenario should allow Jim Knowles’ defense to feast. And while Nebraska’s defense looks solid, you can bet Day and Kelly will have a tailor-made game plan in place. If Ohio State loses to Oregon in Week 7, you can bet some frustrations will be released at the expense of Nebraska.

Week 10: at Penn State (W)

There’s a chance Penn State is undefeated and ranked slightly ahead of Ohio State by the time Week 10 comes around. Even for their question marks, James Franklin’s Nittany Lions have a lot of talent and potential to upset the Ohio State vs. Oregon B1G title game predictions. Penn State also misses Michigan on this year’s schedule, so this matchup with the Buckeyes will be especially critical.

Now, for the reasons I’m going with Ohio State: Defense, defense, defense. Drew Allar has plenty of potential, and Penn State has an explosive backfield tandem, but OSU’s defense has enough depth and elite tools to clamp down, even on the road. And the previous trip to Eugene likely is recent enough to serve as the wake-up call Ohio State needs before a trip to Happy Valley. Another hardcore, drag-out fight in this series plays out, but it’s Will Howard’s veteran leadership and the elite defense that gives this one to the Buckeyes.

Week 11: vs. Purdue (W)

Ohio State likely had a mini panic attack that Purdue was on the schedule one week after facing Penn State. There was also likely an audible sigh of relief when the realization settled that this game comes in Columbus. The Boilermakers may possess magical powers against the Buckeyes, but those occasional powers have been contained inside Ross-Ade Stadium.

Purdue was blown out at home last season, and I think it could get even uglier inside Ohio Stadium for Ryan Walters. The Buckeyes will be hunting style points entering the stretch run. They’ll find some in Week 11, and Purdue will be the unfortunate victim of the blowout.

Week 12: at Northwestern (W)

Northwestern does not have the talent to hang with Ohio State. That’s clear. Heck, the Wildcats don’t even have an actual football stadium for the season! That’s why this game will be played at Wrigley Field, and it’s fair to wonder why this was ever a home game for Northwestern to begin with. But I digress.

As for the actual game on the field: Many will expect this to be the kind of game that Ohio State cruises throughout. I expect the Buckeyes to win comfortably, but it won’t be the kind of massive win it would look like on paper. Health will be a priority at this point in the season, and that goes double for an Ohio State team with national title aspirations forced to play a mid-November game on a baseball field. Caution will lead to a few swings in favor of Northwestern, but it won’t keep this one from getting to Ohio State’s second string in the second half.

Week 13: vs. Indiana (W)

Ohio State has won every matchup with the Hoosiers since 1991 (28 straight victories), and the Buckeyes have not lost in the series since 1988. Curt Cignetti believes he can change some things in Indiana, and he’s adamant that the goal is to make the Hoosiers the best around. Who’s to say what is and isn’t possible in this new era of college football?

I’ll go on the record with one that isn’t possible in 2024: Indiana beating Ohio State late in November. Outside of the chaotic shootout between the programs in 2020, Indiana keeping the 2023 contest at a 23-3 is about all the Hoosiers can hope for at this point. And I expect a more balanced offense and stronger defense to lead to a bigger blowout for the Buckeyes this time around.

Week 14: vs. Michigan (W)

The Game. It needs no introduction, and it’s another showdown that is likely to play a major role in determining the B1G Championship Game matchup. Michigan has the swagger as a national champion while Ohio State is in the uncomfortable spot of chasing the Wolverines as opposed to defending the league crown. The good news? 2024 brings another chance to turn things around.

This game is set up to be all Buckeyes, even more so than the 2022 version, which Michigan still won in blowout fashion. Ohio State has more depth, more talent and actually more experience than in previous installments. And that includes at the head coaching position where Sherrone Moore, for all his interim success, will be the full-time head coach at Michigan this fall. Jim Harbaugh is gone. So are JJ McCarthy, Blake Corum and many of the terrors from the past 3 seasons. I don’t think Ohio State can expect any of the old-fashioned Urban Meyer-led beatdowns of TTUN any time soon, but all the Buckeyes need to do here is get back in the win column. That will happen to end the 3-game losing skid.

2024 Projection: 11-1 (8-1)

Buckle up, Buckeyes fans! This could be the year Ohio State goes all the way and kicks the door down like it’s 2014 all over again!

In fact, that would be quite the twist. Ohio State winning the first versions of the 4- and 12-team Playoff systems, and both titles coming exactly 10 years apart (2014 and 2024). Sometimes history does repeat itself, and we could be looking at that through scarlet-colored classes this fall.

While this piece will not project Ohio State’s path through the Playoff, I do have the Buckeyes making it back to Indianapolis with only the loss to Oregon on the record. It could get crowded at the top of the league standings without divisions in play, but Ohio State will make it through, no matter how tie-breakers land.

I’ll even go one step further: Ohio State will win the B1G Championship, regardless of who lines up on the other side in Lucas Oil Stadium. It’s likely to be a rematch with Oregon, and the Ducks on a neutral field are just a hair worse than the Buckeyes.

I don’t think it will quite be like 2014 when Ohio State won 7 of its games against B1G opponents by double digits, but even a dramatic season will not slow down the Buckeyes this time around.