Barring a full recovery, Sean Clifford won’t play for Penn State against visiting Illinois on Saturday.

But barring an amazing recovery by Bret Bielema’s bunch, it won’t matter.

The No. 7 Nittany Lions (5-1) enter the matchup with the Illini (2-5) as 23.5-point favorites, despite listing TBD as their signal-caller for the noon kickoff at Beaver Stadium.

How can this be? How can oddsmakers be so confident about a team that most likely will be led by either a QB coming off a bad experience (Ta’Quan Roberson) or one with no experience (Christian Veilleux)?

Read on for a full explanation in 5 easy steps.

The ills of the Illinois Illini

Illinois ranks dead last in the Big Ten in scoring (17.7), passing offense (153.7 ypg) and total defense (429.1).  The Illini are 13th in the 14-team league in total offense (318.4 ypg), rushing defense (164.4) and passing defense (264.7). In non-statistical terms, they suck.

And, their first-year coach hates them. Other than that, the guys from Champaign are living the dream.

“As a head coach, you’re only as good as your roster. I kind of learned that the first time I went to the Kentucky Derby, right? No one was betting on the jockeys, everyone was betting on the horses,” Bielema said. “To win the Derby, you’ve gotta have the right horse … as this roster continues to transition, I’ve got to make tough decisions.”

In particular, he blasted his offensive linemen and the former staff that recruited those players.

“Particularly on the offensive line, I don’t believe we have a player in the 2-deep that they’ve recruited here over the last 3 years that is really significantly doing anything for us in the playing department,” Bielema said. “That’s a major concern.”

Either the big blowhard is executing the best reverse-psychology coaching ploy ever, or he’s delivering a clear “wait till (at least) next year” to the fan base. Let’s go with the latter, considering all the bad news backing Bielema’s pessimism. In the days since the Illini’s 24-0 loss to Wisconsin in Week 6, the program has announced:

  • Starting quarterback Brandon Peters, injured against the Badgers, hasn’t been practicing and is iffy for Saturday. Art Sitkowski, Ryan Johnson and Matt Robinson are the next names on the depth chart.
  • RB Mike Epstein, a key player in the Illini’s season-opening upset of Nebraska, is done for the season.
  • LB Jake Hansen is done for the season with a knee injury.
  • Bielema said he has shaken up the lineup during the bye week. He’ll be throwing some freshmen to the Lions.

Illinois has played the role of perennial Penn State punching bag, including a 56-21 thrashing to close out last season. The Lions have won 20 of 25 meetings, including the past 3 and 6 of 7.

So yeah, there are ills in the Illinois Illini, and something very close to a bye in Bielema.

Yurcich will find answers

Roberson has been splitting practice snaps with Veilleux during a 2-week competition for the starting job in Clifford’s absence.

Head coach James Franklin — with some harsh honesty that would make Bielema blush — conceded a couple days ago that the situation doesn’t speak well of Roberson, who has 2 extra years in the program than true freshman Veilleux.

“A player that’s been in the program for a couple years should really be widening that gap. … If it’s close, it really shouldn’t be, right?” the 8th-year head coach said at a media session Tuesday.

Uh, right.

But after Roberson’s “deer in headlights” performance in the 23-20 loss at Iowa, what should be is not what is. So we have a midseason quarterback competition.

But however that drama plays out, first-year offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich will make it work. Likely, the scheme vs. the Illini will involve fewer reads, shorter passes, creative running plays and a few tricks mixed in.

And it’ll work. Because, see above, Illinois sucks.

And it’s even possible Clifford will play, though that didn’t seem likely early in the week and still might be a longshot. But the 3rd-year starter was seen participating in some drills Wednesday at practice, so his status doesn’t look as bleak as it did just a few days ago.

Leave it to Beaver (Stadium)

Since it’s Homecoming weekend, Penn State might draw another 100,000-plus, maybe even a 5th straight listed attendance above 105,000 Nitwits.

And it’ll be amazing to hear how incredibly quiet that many people can be when Roberson and/or Veilleux are taking snaps. Let’s set the over/under on false starts at 1.5, and nothing like the 8 against the Hawkeyes that all occurred after Clifford’s exit with an apparent upper-body injury.

And should it become necessary, those same fans will send a wall of noise at the already inept Illinois offense and make sure their Lions reach 5-0 at home this season.

Defense has been stewing for 2 weeks

The nation’s No. 4 scoring defense can’t wait to take out the frustrations from Iowa City on somebody, and to post another dominant performance in honor of senior captain PJ Mustipher, who suffered a season-ending knee injury against the Hawkeyes. A shutout for the 2nd time in 3 games is possible, as Illinois posted just 93 yards and no points against the Badgers last time out.

Stout still alive and kicking

Jordan Stout continues to lead the nation’s kickers in touchback percentage on kickoffs (33-of-35, 94.3%), and he’s No. 5 in the country at 48.8 yards per punt. He’s even cleaned up his early-season place-kicking issues, hitting 8 of his last 10 FG tries and his last 19 PATs.

Week after week, the 6-3, 209-pound senior gives Penn State a leg up.

Summary and prediction

If he starts, Roberson will have to do more than just hand the ball off, as he did 4 times in mop-up duty last season against the Illini. But maybe not much more. I expect Penn State to get its dormant running game going and pass the ball efficiently.

Penn State 31, Illinois 0