
Tradition Crystal Ball: Predicting every Rutgers football game in 2023
Editor’s note: Saturday Tradition’s annual Crystal Ball series continues today with Rutgers. We previewed the B1G East this week. Next week, starting Monday, we’ll predict every game for every B1G West team.
Previously: Indiana | Maryland | Michigan | Michigan State | Ohio State | Penn State
Punting was the highlight of the 2022 Rutgers football season.
That sounds like a one-liner. Because, well, it is. But it’s also the truth. Thanks to Adam Korsak, the Scarlet Knights unleashed some truly spectacular punts.
Korsak won the Ray Guy Award as the nation’s best punter, and in the process became the first Scarlet Knight named a first team All-American since fullback Brian Leonard in 2006.
Lest this punting praise sound ridiculous, consider the following: opponents returned Korsak’s punts for a total of minus-11 yards. For the 2nd straight season, none of his punts resulted in touchbacks even though 32 of them landed inside the 20.
Korsak finished his career as the NCAA’s all-time leader in punting yardage (15,318 yards) and punts (349). Which brings us to the problem.
Rutgers spends a lot more time punting than scoring.
The Scarlet Knights were among the nation’s most inept offenses, ranking 124th in scoring and 127th in yards per play. Somewhat remarkably, neither mark was the worst in the B1G — Northwestern scored fewer points; Iowa gained fewer yards.
This offensive ineptitude is typically the case. Since joining the Big Ten in 2014, Rutgers’ best showing is 78th in the nation with 27.1 points per game in 2015.
And without Korsak around to set Rutgers’ defense up in ideal field position, the Scarlet Knights finally need to figure out the mysteries of putting the ball in the end zone.
(Pokes offense with stick) Hey, do something
Greg Schiano has crafted the Big Ten’s best special teams unit this side of Iowa. Alas, he also has the worst offense this side of Iowa.
Rutgers quarterbacks were unwatchable in 2022.
Evan Simon, Gavin Wimsatt and Noah Vedral combined for a passer rating of 99.8, which was the 3rd-lowest in the country. They also completed just 50.6% of their attempts for an average of 5.6 yards per attempt. The trio threw 14 interceptions against 11 touchdowns. Of that total, 12 interceptions and 7 touchdowns came against Big Ten opponents.
In other words, the passing game looked more like something from 1963 than 2023.
The situation called for a complete overhaul, and that’s what Rutgers is getting.
Schiano hired Minnesota offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca. New offensive line coach Pat Flaherty and wide receivers coach Dave Brock arrived from the NFL.
The Scarlet Knights are asking big things of transfer wide receivers to make the passing game work. The program’s big pickups were JaQuae Jackson from Division II California (Pa.) and Naseim Brantley from FCS Western Illinois.
Rutgers’ best hope may be getting something out of its ground game.
Samuel Brown got off to a promising start in his freshman year, averaging 5.7 yards per carry against Iowa and 5.3 against Ohio State, but missed the last half of the season due to a foot injury. If he’s healthy, the backfield may have a guy with some pop.
Is it finally time for a Rutgers defense to shine?
Iowa can get by with its offensive troubles because it has the defense and special teams to make up for it. Rutgers has the special teams angle figured out, but might the defense do its part this year?
The Scarlet Knights will get linebackers Mohamed Toure and Moses Walker back after both missed all of last season due to injuries. Combined with Deion Jennings, this could be a pretty solid group.
In the secondary, cornerback Max Melton has the potential to depart early for the NFL Draft with a strong season.
Schiano is also high on his team’s ability to get to the quarterback with defensive ends Aaron Lewis and Wesley Bailey. Whether they can actually help Rutgers improve on last year’s showing of 20 sacks — 11th in the B1G — will go a long way in dictating this team’s success.
Can the Scarlet Knights go bowling?
The Covid pandemic provided Rutgers with a fluke bowl invite in 2020 thanks to its academic progress rate. But the Scarlet Knights haven’t actually earned a bowl trip on the field since their maiden Big Ten campaign in 2014.
The B1G East is even more brutal than usual. Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State all harbor legitimate Playoff aspirations. Maryland has what should be its best team since joining the B1G.
It’s imperative for Rutgers to run the table in its non-conference schedule, then claw together 3 wins against conference opponents.
It’s not impossible, but it won’t be easy.
Game-by-game predictions
Week 1: Northwestern (W)
It helps to get off to a good start. The Wildcats haven’t won a game on American soil since 2021 and come to Piscataway in a state of chaos after Pat Fitzgerald’s firing. From a Rutgers perspective, you couldn’t draw it up any better.
Week 2: Temple (W)
The Knights held the Owls to 264 yards in last year’s 16-14 win. It’ll be ugly, but it’ll be a 2-0 start.
Week 3: Virginia Tech (W)
The Hokies will be better than last year’s disastrous 3-8 start for rookie head coach Brent Pry, but this is their first road trip of the season. The Sandman doesn’t enter New Jersey.
Week 4: at Michigan (L)
The Wolverines have 3 cakewalks leading up to this game. The Scarlet Knights will give them their first real fight. But a fight is all it will be — Michigan has way too much talent to lose a home game to Rutgers.
Week 5: Wagner (W)
I know it’s impossible to place a numerical value on the New Jersey-Staten Island rivalry, but it’s ridiculous that these teams are playing each other. See last year’s 66-7 Rutgers win for proof. It’s even more ridiculous that the Knights face the Seahawks after playing Michigan. Expect a running clock.
Week 6: at Wisconsin (L)
Wagner is going to turn out to be lousy prep for the Badgers.
Week 7: Michigan State (W)
Rutgers should have beaten the Spartans a year ago but committed 14 penalties for 108 yards in the 27-21 loss. Clean things up and the outcome will change.
Week 8: at Indiana (L)
A golden opportunity to clinch bowl eligibility against a team Rutgers has beaten twice in a row. But look for Indiana return man Jaylin Lucas to greet the post-Korsak era with a rare punt return touchdown against the Scarlet Knights.
Week 9: Bye
Week 10: Ohio State (L)
It’s never been pretty against the Buckeyes, and it’s not about to start. Expect another multi-touchdown victory for Ohio State.
Week 11: at Iowa (L)
Kinnick Stadium is not a welcoming place for teams with offensive issues. Don’t expect Rutgers to break 10 points.
Week 12: at Penn State (L)
An absolutely brutal post-bye stretch continues. Rutgers has not beaten Penn State since 1988 — a losing streak of 16 straight. Last year’s 55-10 loss was the most lopsided in the history of the series. Another beatdown awaits.
Week 13: Maryland (L)
After a brutal month, the Knights will still have a chance at a bowl berth with an upset over Maryland. It’ll be a valiant battle, but Taulia Tagovailoa isn’t going to allow his career to end on a losing note.
2023 Projection: 5-7 (2-7), 7th in B1G East
#CHOP
No program benefits more from the end of Big Ten divisional play than Rutgers, and 2024 can’t get here soon enough.
But even without a bowl berth, progress is still possible for the 2023 Scarlet Knights. If Wimsatt can prove himself a trustworthy starter, Rutgers has something to build on heading into his senior season.
The goal for this season is for Ciarrocca to prove Rutgers can field a viable offense, and then find a way to make sure he doesn’t head elsewhere.
Schiano is in a secure place thanks to the work he did putting the program on the map in the 2000s. Rutgers isn’t in the Big Ten without his work. Period.
But at some point, he must start getting results in the 2020s. And if that isn’t this year, the program needs to at least show some tangible signs that it could happen in 2024.