Illinois vs. Iowa State preview: Player prop bet picks

Illinois is set to face Iowa State with a spot in the Elite Eight on the line on Thursday night.

Both the Illini and Cyclones won by double digits in both games last weekend. This is a matchup between KenPom’s No. 1 offense (Illinois) vs. its No. 1 defense (Iowa State).

Here’s a breakdown of this matchup followed by a few player prop picks:

Illinois vs. Iowa State betting info

Spread: Iowa State -1.5
Total: 147.5 points

To help with making predictions in this matchup, here’s some advanced stats via KenPom for both teams:

Opponent-adjusted offensive ratings

Illinois: 126.8 (1st)
Iowa State: 114.3 (48th)

Opponent-adjusted defensive ratings

Illinois: 87.5 (1st)
Iowa State: 103.5 (120th)

Opponent-adjusted tempo

Illinois: 69.7 possessions per game (71st)
Iowa State: 67.2 possessions per game (206th)

Here are 3 player prop picks for this game:

Terrence Shannon Jr. over 21.5 points (-110 on FanDuel)

Terrence Shannon Jr. has been college basketball’s best scorer for a few weeks now. He’s scored 25+ points in 6 straight games and is averaging 27.1 points per contest since Feb. 10 (12-game sample). Iowa State’s elite defense is probably why this number is just 21.5 points, but the Cyclones have given up a few 20-point games recently. I think they’ll make things difficult on Shannon, but he should still get to 22 points in this matchup — with the upside for plenty more.

Keshon Gilbert under 1.5 steals (+120 on ESPN Bet)

Iowa State is No. 3 in the entire country in steal rate, which is a big part of why the Cyclones’ defense has been so successful season. Keshon Gilbert averaged 1.6 steals per game in Big Ten play, but he didn’t have any in Iowa State’s round-of-32 win over Washington State. Illinois does a very good job of taking care of the ball — it ranked 3rd in the Big Ten in offensive steal rate this season. Gilbert figures to be at the top of the Illini’s scouting report (along with Tamin Lipsey) in that regard, and I think they’ll be focused on limiting his opportunities to create steals.

Coleman Hawkins under 6.5 rebounds (-140 on ESPN Bet)

Coleman Hawkins has enjoyed a great season with the Illini, but he is not a great rebounder. Iowa State struggles on the defensive glass (230th nationally), but Hawkins is a poor offensive rebounder for a big (just 5.1%). I also think this could be a matchup where Dain Dainja plays quite a bit and therefore takes some boards away from Hawkins. In each of the past 2 games where Dainja has played 20+ minutes, Hawkins has gone under 6.5 rebounds. For the season, Hawkins averaged 6.1 rebounds per contest.

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