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Tradition Crystal Ball: Predicting every Rutgers football game in 2024
By Paul Harvey
Published:
Editor’s note: Saturday Tradition’s annual Crystal Ball series continues with Rutgers. We’ll go in alphabetical order through the 18-team B1G.
Previously: Illinois | Indiana | Iowa | Maryland | Michigan | Michigan State | Minnesota | Nebraska | Northwestern | Ohio State | Oregon | Penn State | Purdue
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Welcome back to another journey around the 2024 Big Ten season with the latest in Tradition’s Crystal Ball series! The annual series predicting every game of the season brings us to Rutgers, a program that has yet to achieve significant success in the B1G but could be poised for a unique run.
Coach Greg Schiano is entering the 5th season of his 2nd stint leading the Scarlet Knights. He previously led Rutgers from 2001-11, and that yields us some interesting parallels to examine.
In his first stint, Schiano took Rutgers to a bowl game in his 5th season. While the Scarlet Knights were a bowl game replacement during his 2nd season this time, he had the program in a bowl game the traditional way this past season in Year 4.
During his first time with the program, it took until Year 6 for Rutgers to push north of 7 wins, but his current tenure appears to be a year ahead of schedule in that regard. Entering 2024, the Scarlet Knights are poised with a veteran roster and transfer replacements at key positions.
Star running back Kyle Monangai, the B1G’s leading rusher last season, is back to anchor the offense. That’s good news with the Scarlet Knights trying to improve the starting quarterback spot in the offseason.
With Gavin Wimsatt’s deficiencies as a passer, Rutgers brought in Athan Kaliakmanis from Minnesota. Along with starting experience in the conference, Kaliakmanis also has ties to and a knowledge of the offense led by OC Kirk Ciarrocca. Even small improvements from Wimsatt’s passing numbers could do wonders for the offense this fall.
Defensively, the Scarlet Knights again are projected to be sturdy after surrendering 21.2 points per game last season. That has been a staple under Schiano and should continue in 2024.
So, without further ado, let’s get to the Crystal Ball!
STATES: MA, OH, MD, KS, KY, NC, AZ, CO, IN, IL, IA, MI, NJ, PA, TN, WV, VA
Game-by-game predictions
Week 1: vs. Howard (W)
Howard is an FCS program accustomed to scheduling power conference games. The Bison traveled to Northwestern in 2023 and pushed the Wildcats to the wire while also playing a hard-fought game against MAC foe Eastern Michigan in the season-opener. However, Howard’s reality is that of an FCS program that went 6-5 last season before losing to Florida A&M in a bowl game. Rutgers should not struggle too much in the season-opener.
Week 2: vs. Akron (W)
Akron’s trajectory as an FBS football program is rife with disappointments. That includes a 4-20 record under current head coach Joe Moorhead and a rather disappointing outlook for 2024. Bill Connelly’s final preseason SP+ rankings for ESPN have the Zips ranked 133rd out of 134 teams in the country and an offense that is dead last in the system. That sets up nicely for a Rutgers defense that is ranked 21st nationally per the SP+ with a great shot to get to 2-0.
Week 3: BYE
Week 4: at Virginia Tech (L)
Last year, they were neck-and-neck in a hard-fought battle in Piscataway before 2 touchdowns from Kyle Monangai allowed the Scarlet Knights to pull away at home. The 35-16 final score hid how close these two sides were for most of the game, and Virginia Tech returns a roster that ranks 36th overall on the SP+ projections. Playing on the road is likely a deciding factor here, and Hokies QB Kyron Drones is battle-tested enough to withstand this matchup.
Week 5: vs. Washington (W)
Rutgers’ conference opener is against B1G newcomer Washington, which will be playing its first road game — and it comes in a cross-country trek to Piscataway. Further complicating matters, this will be a Friday night game, so the added component of cross-country travel in a non-normal week gives a big leg up to the Scarlet Knights. This should be a great game to the wire, but home field advantage wins out.
Week 6: at Nebraska (W)
The first weekend in October will bring an intriguing matchup between surprise teams in the B1G. Rutgers, at 3-1, will be off to a smooth start, and Matt Rhule’s Nebraska team is projected to be 5-0 entering this game by Tradition’s Crystal Ball. Unfortunately for the Huskers, that kind of start will lead to some overconfidence, particularly with a young QB going up against a tough defense. Schiano knows how to get his teams to the finish line in close games while Nebraska is still learning that process. It will be a big road win for the Scarlet Knights.
Week 7: vs. Wisconsin (L)
Rutgers and Wisconsin have squared off just 5 times since the Scarlet Knights entered the B1G. The Badgers have won all 5 games, though the 2023 contest was close in Madison. Wisconsin has some kinks to still figure out offensively, even with Tyler Van Dyke transferring in at QB, but the defense is rated No. 7 nationally per the SP+ entering 2024. That will aid the Badgers well on the road, and this could be another showdown where either team struggles to get into the 20s on the scoreboard. Either way, give me Luke Fickell’s program in a nail-biter.
Week 8: vs. UCLA (W)
UCLA will be the 2nd of 3 conference newcomers Rutgers will face in 2024. The good news? The Scarlet Knights dodge Oregon, and 2 of the 3 games against old Pac-12 teams come in Piscataway, including the Bruins coming to town. By the time UCLA gets to Week 8, DeShaun Foster’s program will have enough sky miles to take the whole team to Europe in the offseason. I don’t think the Bruins will have much gas left in the tank by this point, and that was before Chip Kelly left for the Ohio State offensive coordinator position. Rutgers will not need to be 100% for this matchup and should be able to ride its defense alone to a victory.
Week 9: at USC (L)
On paper, I think Rutgers matches up well enough to USC. (The Trojans rank 5th in offensive SP+ but are 83rd in defensive SP+ entering the season.) The X-factor? Once again, it’s home-field advantage and the impact of travel that will be felt throughout the B1G. The Scarlet Knights have not exactly blazed a regular trail out to California, and this will be their first matchups against UCLA and USC. Lincoln Riley, for all his flaws, is no slouch when it comes to drawing up an offense, and you can bet he’ll have something ready for Schiano. All it will take is a couple of quick scoring drives from the Trojans to put Rutgers’ offensive behind the 8 ball. It’s a hard pill to swallow, after a 5-2 start to the season, but more bright spots are to come.
Week 10: BYE
Week 11: vs. Minnesota (W)
Rutgers’ series with Minnesota has consisted of 3 games, and the past 2 were non-competitive. However, Schiano has just 1 head-to-head crack vs. PJ Fleck and that came in 2022 when the Scarlet Knights were still laying a foundation. The Golden Gophers did go to a bowl game (and win) last season, but they backed into a spot with a 5-7 regular season record while Rutgers earned its spot the old-fashioned way. What does that mean? I think Fleck is experiencing the first potential cracks in Minnesota’s foundation, and Schiano has Rutgers in a healthier spot for the 2024 matchup.
Week 12: at Maryland (W)
Historical trends are just that — trends over time, and they are insightful for many reasons. But I believe Rutgers is in position to buck those trends against multiple programs, including a Maryland program that has won 3 straight against the Scarlet Knights. The difference this year? No Taulia Tagovailoa for the Terrapins. That doesn’t mean Mike Locksley cannot develop his next QB into a star, but losing a common denominator like Tagovailoa usually has the expected impact.
RELATED: Stay up to date on the best and latest odds throughout the 2024 Big Ten season! Use Tradition’s MD sports betting links for all your info.
Week 13: vs. Illinois (W)
Illinois struggled to hold onto the ball during the 2023 season, and its defense isn’t on the same level as Rutgers. Plus, this game comes in Piscataway late in November, so the team able to run the ball better likely has the advantage. Bret Bielema’s squad may have figured out the issues in the run game after taking a step back without Chase Brown last season. But Rutgers doesn’t have to worry about a new face in the backfield with Monangai toting the rock.
Week 14: at Michigan State (W)
Under Mark Dantonio, Michigan State never lost to Rutgers. But the Scarlet Knights have 2 wins in the past 4 games since Dantonio retired. That includes a fiendish comeback win in 2023 after trailing by 18 points late in the 3rd quarter. The Spartans are likely to be a better team in Jonathan Smith’s first season, but depth is a legitimate issue here. Michigan State is liable to simply be out of gas by the time the season finale rolls around, and Rutgers is looking to cap something special here.
2024 Projection: 9-3 (7-2)
There you have it, folks: A 9-win season for Rutgers! I have professed to be high on the Scarlet Knights all offseason, and the Crystal Ball backs that up.
Consider that the schedule for Rutgers shapes up extremely well. They miss the biggest Pac-12 newcomer of all (Oregon), and — somehow — they avoid facing Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State, too.
Instead of facing those former annual opponents in a division-less B1G, Rutgers will finish the season with 3 of 4 November matchups against programs with a sub-.500 record last season. And the one team with a winning record in that stretch is Maryland, a group I expect to be taking a slight step back after losing Tagovailoa.
So, go ahead Rutgers fans! Start planning your bowl trip for a 2nd straight season!
Paul is a lifelong fan and student of all things college football. He has been covering college football since 2017 and the B1G since 2018.