The 2024 NCAA Tournament is heading into the second weekend with a Sweet 16 field finalized Sunday night!

While Texas A&M and Houston produced an instant classic in the Round of 32, the rest of the round was relatively calm. No. 1 seeds Purdue, UConn and UNC rolled while teams like Alabama and Tennessee survived to advance but looked rather ugly in the process.

Prior to the start of the tournament, CBS aired a segment on the 10 teams in the final field with a realistic shot to cut down the nets. 3 of those teams — Washington State, FAU and Auburn — have been eliminated, leaving 7 teams from the list in the Sweet 16.

Here is that full CBS segment:

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The teams still standing with a shot to win it all (per CBS’s breakdown) are UConn, Purdue, UNC, San Diego State, Arizona, Gonzaga and Iowa State. While other analysts will embrace the idea of reseeding the Sweet 16, I am going to take the opposite angle in this piece.

What follows are the 3 teams from CBS’s analysis to avoid picking down the stretch, along with one prediction for the likely national champion in Phoenix. Let’s get to it:

3 teams to avoid in your bracket redo

Gonzaga (+2500 to win the title via ESPN Bet)

This is a pretty easy call, and it has everything to do with Gonzaga’s Sweet 16 matchup. The Bulldogs will next face Purdue, a 1-seed the team has earlier experience with this season in the Maui Invitational.

At halftime of that game, Gonzaga actually led by 5, but that was the end of the highlights. Purdue rolled to a 73-63 win with a massive second half while the Boilermakers held Gonzaga below 40% shooting from the field and 6-for-32 (18.8%) from 3-point range.

All eyes will once again be on Zach Edey, Purdue’s dominant big man in the middle of a historic NCAA Tournament run. Edey delivered 25 points, 14 rebounds and 3 blocks in that matchup against the Bulldogs, so he’s lined up to deliver another gem in the Sweet 16.

The Bulldogs might one day get their first national title under Mark Few, but this is not the year.

Iowa State (+2000 via ESPN Bet)

Never mind winning the national championship, the Cyclones have the toughest weekend ahead in order to even reach the Final Four. It all starts with a matchup against Illinois.

Accounting for the first two games of the NCAA Tournament, the Illini now have the No. 1 offense in the nation per KenPom‘s adjusted efficiency. That sets up a massive showdown with Iowa State producing the top mark in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Defense traditionally travels, so Iowa State’s performance against Illinois will be a fun one to watch. However, it should still be said that the Illini are on a run of 4 straight games scoring 85+ points with Terence Shannon Jr. and Marcus Domask absolutely shining in the postseason.

Even if Iowa State is able to get past Illinois, the Elite 8 matchup is likely to come against UConn. The Huskies will face San Diego State in the Sweet 16, but Dan Hurley’s squad looks locked in and dominant.

With the potential for back-to-back grinders in the second week of the tournament, steer clear of the Cyclones.

UNC (+1100 via ESPN Bet)

The Tar Heels looked strong and found their groove with wins against Wagner and Tom Izzo’s Michigan State squad in the opening weekend. The perception is UNC is clicking at the right time, but the second week presents a challenge of even getting to the Final Four.

First up, North Carolina gets Alabama, but I would strongly urge fans to avoid putting a lot of stock in Alabama’s outing against Grand Canyon. The Crimson Tide survived all while shooting 26% from 3-point range.

Expecting Nate Oats’ team to have that kind of shooting effort in the Sweet 16 is unlikely, but the Tar Heels are given the edge with DraftKings listing UNC -4 against Alabama. Fans can track the latest line movement for the Sweet 16 with Tradition’s Ohio online sportsbooks.

However, Alabama is just the tip of UNC’s future journey. The other matchup in the West Region includes 6-seed Clemson and 2-seed Arizona, a pair of teams that both pose problems for Hubert Davis and company.

Clemson already beat the Tar Heels in Chapel Hill this season, so Brad Brownell and the Tigers know they can hang with UNC. As for Arizona? Well, the Wildcats have an elite profile, and that matchup would be basketball heaven for a number of reasons.

Arizona is 1 of just 3 teams to finish with a top-10 mark in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency per KenPom. Auburn (a first-round loser to Yale) is 1, and the other we’ll get to in a minute.

And who can forget about Caleb Love? The former Tar Heel transferred to Arizona this offseason and posted career-high scoring numbers with the Wildcats.

Likely champion: UConn (+210 via ESPN Bet)

Okay, that’s not the type of climactic build up anyone was looking for, but sometimes chalk is the right call. In the second round, the Huskies blew past Northwestern 75-58 and shot 53.7% from the field, all while finishing 3-for-22 from 3-point range.

UConn has looked like the best team in the country all year, and I’m not sure it will matter who the Huskies face at any point in the tournament. (Though if you’re looking for a challenger, I’ve got Arizona as the team with the best shot to take down UConn.)

The Huskies are 2nd in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency, and the No. 1 team in that metric (Illinois) has the 92nd adjusted defensive efficiency. UConn has no such concerns with the No. 8 defense per the metric.

Simply being the best team never guarantees everything. But it’s hard to pick against UConn after a dominant regular season and an elite start to the NCAA Tournament.