Tradition Crystal Ball: Predicting every UCLA football game in 2024

Editor’s note: Saturday Tradition’s annual Crystal Ball series continues with UCLA. We’ll go in alphabetical order through the 18-team B1G.

Previously: Illinois | Indiana | Iowa | Maryland | Michigan | Michigan State | Minnesota | Nebraska | Northwestern | Ohio State | Oregon | Penn State | Purdue | Rutgers

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Like their L.A. counterparts, UCLA couldn’t help but bathe in the drama last season. In what would be Chip Kelly’s final season in Westwood, the swings were enough to cause whiplash.

Five-star quarterback of the future Dante Moore flipped from Oregon to UCLA to work under Kelly but wound up backing up Ethan Garbers to begin the season. UCLA won its first 3 only to face-plant in Salt Lake City in Week 4, losing to a battered Utes team despite allowing 3.4 yards per play and forcing a turnover.

The elite defense proves to be legit and UCLA wins 3 of its next 4 while climbing into the AP Top 20. But back-to-back games against Arizona and Arizona State saw the offense completely collapse. Against the Sun Devils, who were running the Swinging Gate because of widespread injury problems, UCLA reached a new low. The Bruins gained 15 first downs and totaled just 117 yards through the air in a 17-7 home loss.

Reports emerged that the program intended to fire Kelly at the conclusion of the season, those reports were refuted, and then UCLA went out and pummeled a disinterested USC team at the Coliseum.

A week later, the Bruins lost at home to Cal 33-7.

In the LA Bowl, UCLA trailed Boise State 16-7 at halftime but managed a 21-0 third quarter to win the game by 2 scores.

There was no consistency anywhere. Three quarterbacks played. Moore was plagued by interceptions (9) and Garbers was cleaner but less exciting. The Bruins ranked second in the Pac-12 in rushing efficiency but just seventh in the league in overall offensive efficiency. When forced to the air, misery was waiting with open arms.

As the fan base turned on Kelly, athletic director Martin Jarmond made the decision to retain him.

Months later, Kelly left of his own accord to take a coordinator position at Ohio State.

Meanwhile, the defensive coordinator responsible for the brilliant turnaround had been plucked away from the Bruins to join Lincoln Riley at USC. Had Jarmond fired Kelly, some believed D’Anton Lynn deserved a shot at the head chair.

Instead, UCLA turned to former running backs coach DeShaun Foster. A program alum and an 8-year NFL veteran, Foster takes over as the head coach of a Big Ten program without ever holding so much as a coordinator title.

The Bruins rank 37th in the country in returning production, per ESPN’s Bill Connelly, but little is expected of them in Year 1 in the Big Ten.

Will Eric Bieniemy raise the floor?

The lows were so low last season for UCLA’s offense that it was almost painful to watch at times. Foster’s first offensive coordinator was a splash hire — Eric Bieniemy from the NFL. And the longtime Andy Reid protege steps into Westwood with a fair bit of returning talent.

Garbers won’t be looking over his shoulder this season. The job is his. Foster did well with his running backs as a UCLA assistant, so there’s optimism about what TJ Harden (827 yards, 8 touchdowns, 5.3 yards per carry) can do with a leading role. Last year’s leading receiver, Logan Loya, returns in the slot while J. Michael Sturdivant will look to make good on WR1 potential he flashed as a freshman at Cal (755 yards, 7 scores). Moliki Matavao returns after leading all tight ends in receptions last fall. Four starters on the offensive line return.

Kelly’s offense focused on the slot and tight ends. Bieniemy’s offense will put a fullback into the picture while relying on West Coast principles.

There’s talent here, but the play needs to be cleaner. UCLA quarterbacks threw 14 picks last season. The Bruins coughed the ball up 22 times in total (the same number as Iowa) and were one of the most penalized teams in the country.

Unless Garbers can take a major step as a downfield playmaker, the Bruins will have to be clinical. That’s where Bieniemy and the new offensive staff come into play.

What kind of drop-off awaits the defense?

D’Anton Lynn’s impact was immediately felt in Westwood. A veteran in the NFL coaching ranks, Kelly hired Lynn hoping to build a defense that would take UCLA to the next level. Kelly got exactly that, and then some.

The Bruins improved across the board under Lynn’s leadership. The defense gave up 29 points a game in 2022 (90th nationally). In 12 regular-season games, UCLA allowed just 18 a game. The Bruins had the 42nd-ranked run defense prior to Lynn’s arrival, giving up 3.8 yards a play. Entering the 2023 bowl season, the Bruins had the third-ranked run defense, allowing only 2.3 yards per carry.

A year after finishing 72nd nationally in defensive efficiency, UCLA ranked eighth at the time of Lynn’s departure for USC.

They produced 41 sacks in 12 games (fourth nationally entering bowl season) after recording 28 in 13 games the year prior. They had 99 tackles for loss in 12 games, up from 60 the year prior. Takeaways improved. Third-down defense improved. UCLA ended the regular season leading the country in red zone touchdown percentage allowed — a year-over-year improvement of nearly 30 percentage points.

If not for the defense, Jarmond may not have had a choice in the matter of keeping Kelly. A 12-point win over Colorado featured 4 giveaways by the offense. The opener against Coastal Carolina was a 1-point game entering the fourth quarter.

Eight starters from the group are gone, including linebacker Darius Muasau and edge rusher Laiatu Latu. Muasau led the defense in tackles. Latu led the country in TFLs. Gabriel and Grayson Murphy are gone as well. John Humphrey and Kamari Ramsey left starting roles int he secondary to follow Lynn to USC.

Ikaika Malloe takes over as defensive coordinator after coaching the defensive line last season. He has some talent to work with along the interior of the defensive line and in the secondary, but UCLA is uncomfortably thin on the edge and at linebacker.

Game-by-game predictions

Week 1: at Hawaii (W)

Hawaii is entering Year 3 under Timmy Chang (8-18). Quarterback Brayden Schager returns after throwing for 3,542 yards and 26 touchdowns last season, and in a wildly pass-happy offense, he has his 6 leading receivers back alongside him. Hawaii’s best bet will be trying to outscore teams. It won’t work against UCLA. Garbers will have a fine debut in his first game working with Bieniemy.

Week 2: BYE

Week 3: vs. Indiana (W)

The Bruins welcome Indiana to the Rose Bowl for an early conference clash. (Imagine explaining that sentence to a college football fan 10 years ago.) Early in the Curt Cignetti era, UCLA takes advantage of a program very much in transition and opens up the new year 2-0.

Week 4: at LSU (L)

Both L.A. schools face LSU early in the upcoming season, and much like USC, UCLA will struggle to handle the Tigers at the line of scrimmage. Talent and physicality win out and the Tigers hand UCLA a rather one-sided defeat.

Week 5: vs. Oregon (L)

The talent gap is quite large in the areas that matter here. UCLA doesn’t have the edge rushers to beat Oregon’s tackles, so it’ll need to get creative in order to apply pressure. That’ll expose things behind, where Oregon’s pass-catchers will have a field day. Forced to play catch-up, the Bruins’ will be overwhelmed on the line of scrimmage. Oregon can win this game a number of ways. UCLA has to play a specific and perfect game to knock off the Ducks, and I just don’t see that happening.

Week 6: at Penn State (L)

The Bruins face as tough a 3-week stretch as you’ll find anywhere in college football next season. After physical games against LSU and Oregon, facing the Penn State defense on the road will feel like cruel and unusual punishment. UCLA gets roughed up and returns home at 2-3.

Week 7: vs. Minnesota (W)

Call it a Rose Bowl bump. UCLA benefits from getting a Minnesota team playing its seventh game in as many weeks to open the season. The Gophers play Iowa, Michigan, and USC all before traveling to Pasadena and they’re likely to be just as beat up as the Bruins are. TJ Harden has a nice day and the Bruins force a timely turnover to win.

Week 8: at Rutgers (L)

The deadbeat Scarlet Knights are gone. Greg Schiano has Rutgers in a good spot once again. With a veteran defense and a standout running back, Rutgers will be one of the tougher outs in the Big Ten in 2024. Traveling cross-country, UCLA comes up short.

Week 9: BYE

Week 10: at Nebraska (L)

Since the start of the 2018 season (Scott Frost’s first in Lincoln), Nebraska has a 17-21 record at home. That’s the second-worst in the Big Ten. It’s remarkable, really, given the continued support the program gets; Memorial Stadium has one of the best atmospheres in the country when the fans are able to get engaged in the game. In his first season, Matt Rhule had the Huskers playing competitive ball but atrocious turnover luck continued and the 1-score blues stuck around. With freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola in town, the Huskers are looking like a bowl team in 2024. After losing to Ohio State the week prior, I like Raiola to have a big game in front of the home fans

Week 11: vs. Iowa (L)

Iowa might have its best defense yet in 2024. Maybe the offense doesn’t look any better — don’t look up what kind of camp quarterback Cade McNamara is having — but Iowa City is this weird Big Ten haven where punting and defense are enough to win 8 or 9 games annually. Arguably, Iowa’s biggest offseason departure was its punter, who was drafted in the fourth round (!!!). Garbers struggles and multiple turnovers doom the Bruins.

Week 12: at Washington (L)

The losing streak hits 4 thanks to Will Rogers and Jonah Coleman. Maybe the Huskies have bowl eligibility locked up by this point in the season but that’s not a given. With a bye and a road trip to Oregon on the other side, UW has to take care of business at home against the Bruins.

Week 13: vs. USC (L)

Lynn and the defensive transfers have a big day against their former team. After USC was thoroughly handled by UCLA the previous season, I expect the Trojans to come out with a sense of urgency.

Week 14: vs. Fresno State (W)

The regular season comes to a close with something positive to build on. Fresno State is a wild card in 2024, with enough experience to make a run at the Mountain West but a new coach taking over after Jeff Tedford was forced to step away in July because of health concerns. The seniors step up to ensure they go out with a win.

2024 Projection: 4-8 (2-7 Big Ten)

There’s a ton of lost production on the defensive side of the football, a new scheme taking hold on offense, a first-team head coach running the show, and a schedule that will send the Bruins all over the country. Year 1 is looking like a difficult endeavor for coach DeShaun Foster.

The markets have UCLA at 5.5 wins for the 2024 season. Most of the action at ESPN Bet is on the under (-180) as the new year approaches. After going without a bowl game for 4 years to begin the Kelly tenure, missing out on the postseason once again will be a tough pill to swallow, but UCLA is in rebuild mode. The hope in the Foster hire is that an energetic young coach who cares deeply for the program can reignite the in-state recruiting machine and get UCLA back to a sustainable place. That won’t get done overnight.