Tradition Crystal Ball: Predicting every USC football game in 2024

Editor’s note: Saturday Tradition’s annual Crystal Ball series continues with USC. We’ll go in alphabetical order through the 18-team B1G.

Previously: Illinois | Indiana | Iowa | Maryland | Michigan | Michigan State | Minnesota | Nebraska | Northwestern | Ohio State | Oregon | Penn State | Purdue | Rutgers | UCLA

* * * * * * *

In 2022, USC won 11 out of 12 games in its first regular season under coach Lincoln Riley. The Trojans were buzzing. The promised return of the “mecca of college football” looked imminent. USC was on the doorstep of the College Football Playoff. All it needed was a win over Utah in the Pac-12 title game.

The No. 4 team in the CFP rankings at that point, USC was scoring an average of 42.5 points. Caleb Williams was running away with the Heisman Trophy, leading an outfit that cleared 7 yards per play in 9 of its 12 games. The defense was scattershot, but doing enough in the turnover department to get by.

After the first quarter of the 2022 Pac-12 title game, the Trojans led the Utes 14-3.

From there, Williams was hampered by an injury and things collapsed. Utah outscored USC 44-10 over the final 3 quarters.

Then, in the Cotton Bowl against Tulane, USC blew a 45-30 lead with 4:30 remaining in the game and lost 46-45 — a safety scored with 3:20 to play ultimately serving as the difference.

In 2023, the takeaways dried up, the defensive fundamentals were exposed, the offense wasn’t as complete, and all hell broke loose.

USC held off Colorado for a 48-41 win on Sept. 30. It stopped a 2-point conversion in the third overtime period against Arizona to scrape by with a 43-41 win. In South Bend against Notre Dame, the Trojans turned the ball over 5 times and committed 9 penalties on their way to a humbling 48-20 loss.

That would be the first of 5 losses in a 6-week stretch to close the regular season.

Riley missed time with pneumonia. He briefly revoked a USC beat writer’s access after claiming that writer violated the school’s media policy for mentioning a conversation a player had with another player moments before stepping in front of the cameras.

He squabbled with Utah’s Kyle Whittingham over sign-stealing allegations. He claimed the team was “agonizingly close” after giving up 52 points to Washington and 49 points to Cal the week prior.

He fired his defensive coordinator. He watched as the Trojans ran for 3 total yards against UCLA in an 18-point defeat to end the regular season.

From an internal perspective, USC calmed the waters a bit with a 42-28 win over Louisville in the Holiday Bowl to close out the season. Had the Trojans faltered and dropped a sixth game, the heat would have been unbearable.

Nonetheless, Riley has been the subject of criticism from prominent media personalities like Paul Finebaum. If he doesn’t produce a successful season in 2024, there will be even more drama surrounding USC football.

From the outside, it seems Riley has few friends in the media space given his proclivity for secrecy and narrative control. While he might not care about being chummy with ESPN’s SEC Network host or others like him, there’s a serious perception problem facing the Trojans this season and Riley won’t get the benefit of the doubt if USC struggles in its new home.

And once that ball starts, it’s hard to stop it.

Riley has major questions to answer in 2024. He has said USC is in rebuild mode, but entering Year 3 has a distinct Year 1 feel to it.

Can Miller Moss produce?

Riley’s teams have always been offense-leaning and that isn’t changing just because Caleb Williams is no longer in town. While Trojans fans might care most about how much ground the defense makes up under a completely rebuilt staff, quarterback play will determine this team’s floor.

Four of the top 6 receivers from last season are gone. Three of the top 4 running backs are gone. Two starters on the offensive line depart, and a tackle moves to center. There’s talent here, specifically at receiver where USC is well-stocked with former blue-chippers, but there are a lot of moving pieces.

Miller Moss takes the reins at quarterback following 3 seasons of backing up starters. When Riley arrived with his own quarterback ahead of the 2022 campaign, Moss — a blue-chipper in his own right — elected to stay in L.A. and fight for a role. After 2 seasons of backing up Williams and beating out 2023 5-star signee Malachi Nelson, Moss has his first real opportunity.

The 6-2 L.A. native threw 6 touchdown passes in the Holiday Bowl to set several school and bowl records. In the spring game, he threw 2 interceptions and averaged 6.0 yards per pass attempt.

There will be a step down in play at the quarterback spot. Williams set an outrageously high bar that few would be able to meet. The question is how big will the step backward be? Moss has appeared in 12 career games and thrown 92 passes. There will be a learning curve, but the hope is his time in Riley’s system will allow him to hit the ground running.

USC changed its offseason quarterback plan after Moss balled out in the Holiday Bowl. Instead of taking a transfer who would come in and start (Will Howard was heavily linked), USC opted to give Moss a chance to win the job and added depth to the room.

Riley’s pedigree as a quarterback savant has been questioned of late. Spencer Rattler didn’t live up to the 5-star status at OU. Nelson recently lost a quarterback competition at Boise State. It’s hard to mess up guys like Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Jalen Hurts and Caleb Williams — all of them high draft picks and NFL starters.

This is a big season for Riley and his quarterback.

Will another offseason of change finally help the defense?

Riley’s plan after the 2022 season to improve the defense was to load up on Power 5 transfers who could bolster the two-deep and raise the standard of play. Some transfers hit (Christian Rolland-Wallace) and some never made an impact.

This time, Riley acknowledged the approach needed to change and he reinvented the defensive staff. He poached D’Anton Lynn from UCLA after Lynn authored one of the more impressive turnarounds in the country with the Bruins. Riley and Lynn hired Doug Belk from Houston to be USC’s secondary coach, Matt Entz from North Dakota State to coach the linebackers, and Eric Henderson from the L.A. Rams to run the defensive line.

Entz was the NDSU head coach. Belk and Henderson both have play-calling experience. On paper, this is an excellent defensive staff with experienced minds and rising young talent.

But USC didn’t just change the personnel on the staff. Once again, it hit the transfer portal hard. Realistically, 6 of the 11 starters when USC’s defense takes the field against LSU could be transfers who arrived this offseason.

Safeties Akili Arnold (Oregon State) and Kamari Ramsey (UCLA) are upgrades. Greedy Vance Jr. (Florida State) is battling for the nickel job. Easton Mascarenas-Arnold (Oregon State) was a big win for the “Mike” linebacker spot. Nate Clifton (Vanderbilt) looks likely to start on the defensive line.

The rest of the starting 11 will likely be Riley transfers who need to show more consistency. Bear Alexander, Anthony Lucas, Jamil Muhammad and Mason Cobb all landed in the 2023 class. Jacobe Covington was in the 2022 class.

In 2 seasons under Riley, the USC defense has been pretty good at creating splash plays. In 2022, USC produced the 6th-most takeaways in the country. In 2023, USC ranked 26th nationally in tackle for loss per game.

They just haven’t contained the big plays. Missed tackles have turned modest gains into huge gains. Coverage busts have allowed easy explosives. Last season, USC ranked in the 11th percentile for preventing explosive plays and in the 13th percentile for passing downs success rate.

The defense needs more balance. A simplified scheme should help. USC defenders suffered too much from paralysis by analysis.

Game-by-game predictions

Week 1: vs. LSU (L)

The Tigers will hold a significant advantage in the trenches. While they have their own quarterback situation to work on, I expect LSU to be able to run the ball well. This was one of the best offenses in the country last year because of Heisman winner Jayden Daniels, yes, but also because of the play of the offensive line. Four starters return from last year’s unit. They make life rough for Lynn in his debut.

Week 2: vs. Utah State (W)

USC should steamroll the Aggies, who had a major habit of going backward on offense last season (126th in TFLs allowed, 127th in penalties). After USC was roughed up a bit by a team that’s just further along in Week 1, Lynn shows why he was brought to town in the home opener. I like players like Jamil Muhammad and Bear Alexander to cause problems along the line of scrimmage and give USC a comfortable win.

Week 3: BYE

Week 4: at Michigan (L)

Setting aside the fact this is in one of the toughest places to play against a program that is much farther along, this is a bad matchup for USC. Wink Martindale’s amoeba defense brings constant pressure, but Michigan’s nation-best defensive line might be able to cause problems from base looks against USC’s line early in the season. Miller Moss could have a “welcome to the Big Ten” moment.

Week 5: vs. Wisconsin (W)

Preseason SP+ numbers would make this a 3.5-point USC spread (giving 2.5 for home-field advantage). The Badgers will also be coming off an early bye week, so maybe the cross-country trip isn’t as big a bump for the Trojans as it would otherwise be. The Badgers project as one of the better defenses in the country, so this will never feel comfortable for the Trojans.

Week 6: at Minnesota (W)

This has track race written all over it for me. Max Brosmer (last year’s FCS passing leader) takes over for a Minnesota offense in dire need of some juice. There are some dynamic weapons and a veteran offensive line. I think Brosmer has a big day through the air but USC escapes with a win. The talent gap will show itself, and it’s something PJ Fleck has been fighting for years. Minnesota is just 3-14 against ranked opponents under Fleck.

Week 7: vs. Penn State (L)

Penn State wins by multiple scores as Abdul Carter has a monster day off the edge.

Week 8: at Maryland (W)

Maryland has an above-average defense but the upcoming season ushers in a major period of transition on offense. All 5 starters from last year’s offensive line are gone along with record-breaking quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa. USC enjoys its first East Coast swing.

Week 9: vs. Rutgers (W)

Rutgers has an All-Big Ten running back and a defense that excels at limiting explosive plays. The Scarlet Knights have the juice to challenge USC and keep things close up until the fourth quarter. USC has too much offensive firepower and a major advantage at quarterback.

Week 10: at Washington (L)

USC has lost 3 of the past 4 to Washington and trips to Seattle have been consistently tricky. The 2024 Huskies will resemble the 2023 Huskies in name only; along with Kalen DeBoer moving to Alabama, 11 offensive starters and 9 defensive starters left the program. Still, new coach Jedd Fisch will have UW playing competitive ball thanks to one of the most experienced quarterbacks in the country (Mississippi State transfer Will Rogers) and a potentially potent running game. Though outside the Big Ten title race, I like UW to pull a late-season upset in what will be USC’s seventh game in as many weeks.

Week 11: BYE

Week 12: vs. Nebraska (W)

After a much-needed off week, I like Lynn to come out with some juice and get after a young Nebraska quarterback. The sky’s the limit for Dylan Raiola, but on the road against an experienced defense, he’ll have 1 or 2 mistakes that seal a loss.

Week 13: at UCLA (W)

The annual battle for L.A. will serve as a homecoming of sorts for several on USC’s sideline. Lynn will face the team he very likely could have coached had UCLA moved on from Chip Kelly before Kelly moved on from it. Defensive backs Kamari Ramsey and John Humphrey played for Lynn at UCLA before following him this offseason. And wideout Kyle Ford spent a year at UCLA before returning to USC. After being thoroughly handled by the Bruins last season, USC shows more fight and swings the seesaw that has been this series in recent years the other way.

Week 14: vs. Notre Dame (L)

A camp injury to Notre Dame’s projected starting left tackle is cause for concern in South Bend, but USC didn’t lose this game last fall because of anything Notre Dame’s offense did. The defense had USC (5 turnovers, 9 penalties) seeing ghosts. All-Americans Howard Cross and Xavier Watts return to the defense this fall, leading a group that should be one of college football’s true elites. While a 28-point loss is unlikely again (last year’s game was rather random, with a fumble return touchdown and a 99-yard kickoff return for a score), I don’t see USC making enough plays to beat Notre Dame’s defense.

2024 Projection: 7-5 (6-3 Big Ten)

With Caleb Williams moving on to the NFL, the skill positions turning over to what is mostly a group of youngsters, and the defense going through an extensive overhaul, this season has a distinct Year 1 feel to it. In Year 3 for Riley at USC, another 5-loss campaign will raise some eyebrows, but if USC can just look like a more complete team on both sides of the football, there’s enough on the roster to generate some positive momentum going forward.

And the betting public seems to think USC will be in this arena. ESPN Bet has the Trojans’ regular-season win total at 7.5 with most of the action on the under (-135).