Editor’s note: Saturday Tradition’s annual Crystal Ball series continues today with Iowa. We’ll work through every B1G West team this week, after covering every East team last week.

Previously in the West: Illinois

The East: Indiana | Maryland | Michigan | Michigan State | Ohio State | Penn State| Rutgers

Enough finally became enough for Iowa this offseason. Well, nearly became enough.

In a parallel universe, the 2022 Hawkeyes would be celebrated for fielding one of the great defenses in college football history. Iowa was 2nd in the country in points allowed (13.3 ppg) and led the nation in total defense (3.99 yards per play).

Opponents averaged just 5.3 yards per attempt in their oft-futile efforts to pass against the Hawkeyes. Iowa picked off 15 of those passes while allowing 13 touchdowns through the air.

The numbers compare favorably to a 2021 Georgia defense that was feted as college football’s best in at least a generation — if not longer.

The ’21 Bulldogs allowed 5.6 yards per attempt with 16 interceptions against 10 passing touchdowns. Georgia was a field goal better in points allowed — 10.3 per game — but slightly worse in total defense with 4.15 yards allowed per play.

Alas, no one will ever hold those 2 defenses in the same regard. And it is entirely the fault of Iowa’s offense, which left the defense in a constant state of stress.

Iowa finished 129th out of 131 teams in total offense, averaging 4.24 yards per play. Only UMass and New Mexico were worse.

The Hawkeyes were slightly better as measured by scoring, and we do mean slightly — 123rd, with a meager 17.7 ppg.

In a normal scenario, a change would have been made at offensive coordinator. But Iowa is abnormal. The offensive coordinator is the head coach’s son, and the head coach is the longest tenured in the FBS.

Athletic director Gary Barta came up with a backdoor solution. Iowa must average at least 25 points and win 7 games this season in order for Brian Ferentz’s contract to renew next year.

To help keep his son employed, Kirk Ferentz hit the transfer portal with unusual vigor, beginning with former Michigan quarterback Cade McNamara.

Will the personnel changes be enough?

The drive to 25

It’s unrealistic to expect that McNamara will suddenly become a star. As Michigan’s starter in 2021, he rated 7th in the B1G with 7.9 yards per attempt and 6th with 15 touchdown passes.

But he can be an effective game manager.

McNamara completed 64.2% of his passes, which was good enough for 4th in the league. He threw 6 interceptions, which tied with CJ Stroud for the fewest among Big Ten quarterbacks with at least 100 attempts.

That level of basic competence has been missing from the Hawkeyes’ huddle in recent years.

In the year 2022 A.D., Iowa quarterbacks threw 7 touchdown passes and 7 interceptions while averaging 156.7 yards per game. Navy, which runs the triple-option, threw 9 touchdown passes against 6 interceptions last year.

Even by Iowa standards, it was incredibly weak. The Hawkeyes threw 9 touchdown passes in 2020 despite playing 5 fewer games than last season.

McNamara will be aided by the presence of one of his favorite targets. Tight end Erick All came along for the ride from Ann Arbor and then stayed in Iowa City. All and Luke Lachey give Iowa the B1G’s top tight end tandem behind Michigan.

A receiver room that has been plagued by defections the past couple years — Exhibit A, Charlie Jones — is far more uncertain. But that weakness won’t be as glaring if the running game gets back on track. And it should.

Sophomore running back Kaleb Johnson is a star in the making. Despite Iowa’s ineptitude passing, he averaged 5.1 yards per carry and was 3rd in the B1G with 5 carries of at least 40 yards.

Most importantly, the Hawkeyes are finally mature again up front after a couple years of taking their lumps with a youthful offensive line.

Iowa has 4 starters returning. And the lone new starter, right tackle Gennings Dunker, can throw bales of hay incredibly long distances. If that doesn’t scream “future Iowa offensive line superstar,” what does?

Will the defense reload again?

Now for the ironic part. Iowa expects to move the ball this year, but might experience somewhat of a rebuilding process on defense. Then again, it may merely be a reloading process.

Big Ten defensive player of the year Jack Campbell will certainly be missed at inside linebacker, as will running mate Seth Benson.

Iowa also loses significant talent in the secondary with cornerback Riley Moss and safety Kaevon Merriweather joining Campbell and Benson as NFL rookies.

Up front, the Hawks will have to make do without Lukas Van Ness and his 10.5 tackles for loss. Van Ness was actually the first Hawkeye off the draft board, going 13th overall to the Packers.

But this is still a Phil Parker defense, and he still has some dudes. Deontae Craig, who had 11 TFL and 6.5 sacks as a sophomore, might be even better than Van Ness. And Craig is the least-experienced player on a defensive line returning 3 senior starters.

Virginia transfer Nick Jackson, who has recorded 100 or more tackles in each of his 3 seasons, takes Campbell’s place at the heart of the defense.

And the secondary still has electrifying cornerback Cooper DeJean, who returned 3 interceptions for touchdowns a year ago. If opponents make the mistake of frequently throwing in his vicinity, DeJean could take Campbell’s place as Big Ten defensive player of the year.

Iowa will win the West if …

It beats Wisconsin in Madison on Oct. 14.

Even though it’s at the halfway point of the season, the winner of the Heartland Trophy will also end up winning the West.

Both offenses underwent renovations in the offseason, with Wisconsin’s being much more dramatic. The Badgers are switching to an up-tempo, spread-based offense that looks like nothing we’ve ever seen before in Madison.

In recent years, the only Big Ten West offense bearing any resemblance to it is Purdue’s — and interestingly enough, the Boilermakers are a burr under Kirk Ferentz’s saddle. Purdue is 4-2 against Iowa since 2017, and the Badgers should be more potent than any of those Boilers teams.

Game-by-game predictions

Week 1: Utah State (W)

The Aggies were 104th in scoring offense last season. They’ll be lucky to gain 104 yards against the Hawks.

Week 2: at Iowa State (W)

Bet the under. BUT NOT IF YOU ARE ON EITHER TEAM’S ROSTER. 

Week 3: Western Michigan (W)

Kirk Ferentz has never lost to an entity associated with PJ Fleck. Why start now?

Week 4: at Penn State (W)

One of the first big upsets of the season.

Yes, it’s a White Out game in Happy Valley, which sounds quite scary. But the Nittany Lions are 10-8 all-time in those games, including 0-1 against Iowa. Despite having mountains of talent, Penn State has an unproven quarterback and unproven wide receivers. That’s a bad recipe for an early-season game against the Hawks.

Week 5: Michigan State (L)

The classic hangover game.

Mel Tucker has a difficult-to-explain win in each of his 3 seasons at Michigan State. In 2020, he beat Big Ten West champ Northwestern. The next year, the Spartans took down Big Ten champ Michigan. And last season, Michigan State prevented Illinois from reaching the Big Ten championship game.

This year, it’ll be the Hawkeyes serving Mel’s head-scratcher special.

Week 6: Purdue (W)

David Bell finally stopped torturing Iowa last year, and the result was a 24-3 Hawkeyes win. It’ll be another dominating performance against the Boilers in his absence.

Week 7: at Wisconsin (L)

Luke Fickell is a savvy guy. He knows Iowa is the team to beat in the B1G West in this final year of its existence. And it’s likely he thinks his offensive overhaul is the best way of doing it. This game will prove him right.

Week 8: Minnesota (W)

The Gophers are also expected to open things up a bit this year. But Iowa will be ready for its 3rd straight opponent that will want to pass first. Floyd of Rosedale stays in Iowa City, as he always has when Ferentz faces Fleck.

Week 9: Bye

Week 10: at Northwestern (L)

A stat that defies explanation: Kirk Ferentz is 3-11 all-time when Iowa plays a road game after a bye week. And although this isn’t a true road game — it’s at Wrigley Field — this wouldn’t be the first time a guy took a loss after getting called up to Wrigley from Iowa.

Week 11: Rutgers (W)

Rutgers’ offense going up against the Iowa defense is like a cage match between an MMA fighter and a 1-armed senior citizen. The Scarlet Knights being the senior citizen, if clarification is needed.

Week 12: Illinois (W)

This is the type of game where Iowa’s offensive upgrades will make all the difference. It’ll be tight, just like last year’s 9-6 loss. But this time the Hawks have the edge.

Week 13: at Nebraska (L)

Road games against teams with Ns on their helmets will be the bane of Iowa’s existence this year. The Huskers need a win here to clinch their first bowl berth since 2016, and Matt Rhule’s squad will use that post-Thanksgiving hunger to get it done.

2023 Projection: 8-4 (5-4), 3rd in B1G West

#Hawkeyes 

To answer The Big Question, yes, Iowa will exceed 25 points per game this season. Perhaps the Hawks will even fly as high as 28 ppg. I don’t particularly envy Utah State or Western Michigan in the event that Iowa has the opportunity to rack up bonus points in the fourth quarter.

But gaming the system shouldn’t be necessary. Not with Johnson running behind an experienced line and McNamara avoiding mistakes.

However, the collective panic that arose when McNamara came up limping during a recent scrimmage wasn’t unfounded. If McNamara gets hurt for real, trouble will follow. The QB room is extremely green behind him. And other than Nico Ragaini, there aren’t any proven entities at wide receiver.

All and Lachey will make Iowa a very dangerous team in the red zone, but this isn’t going to be a top-flight passing attack. The defense and special teams will still be leading the way.

The Hawks avoid Ohio State and Michigan, so there’s a very real chance of getting to Indianapolis for the 2nd time in 3 years. If Iowa beats Wisconsin and avoids any slip-ups to underdogs, it will get there.

But the probability of a slight defensive decline with 4 stars making their way into the NFL opens just enough of a window for the Crystal Ball to deem Wisconsin the West’s team to beat.