Editor’s note: Saturday Tradition’s annual Crystal Ball series continues today with Minnesota. We’ll work through every B1G West team this week, after covering every East team last week.

Previously in the West: Illinois | Iowa

The East: Indiana | Maryland | Michigan | Michigan State | Ohio State | Penn State| Rutgers

If there is a biggest loser in the Big Ten’s 2024 expansion, it might be Minnesota.

Virtually everyone in the East is a winner — especially Maryland, Rutgers and Indiana. No longer will they have to run the Michigan/Ohio State/Penn State gauntlet annually.

For a program like Minnesota, playing in the B1G West is a gateway to the Big Ten championship game. And playing for a Big Ten championship is a pretty big deal when you haven’t won a share of the title since 1967. Or the outright title since 1941.

The Gophers were agonizingly close to winning the West in both 2019 and 2021. Either year, beating Iowa would have made all the difference. But a 27-22 loss in ’21 and a 23-19 loss in ’19 kept PJ Fleck’s team from reaching Indianapolis.

Heading into the final year of the B1G West’s existence, Minnesota and Illinois are the only teams in the division who have yet to reach the Big Ten championship game. The clock is ticking.

Can the Gophers make it to Indy before midnight strikes?

Airborne Gophers?

Minnesota’s football history does not contain a great deal of aerial exploits.

Mike Hohensee is the most recent Golden Gopher to lead the Big Ten in touchdown passes. That was in 1981. No Gopher has led the Big Ten in passing yards since Cory Sauter in 1996.

There is a certain level of logic to that equation. Outside of the Metrodome years, nothing about playing in Minnesota after Halloween feels particularly conducive to aerial assault.

For the most part, Fleck’s offenses have adhered to that principle, moving the ball by mauling opponents with a gigantic offensive line and powerful running backs. But his 2019 team also had the lone 3,000-yard passer in Minnesota history in a young Tanner Morgan. And his 2023 offense may also be designed around a sophomore quarterback who approaches 3,000 yards.

Athan Kaliakmanis took over for the injured Morgan last season and then kept the job.

The results were mixed — he completed 54.1% of his passes for 946 yards with 3 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. But his 319-yard performance in a 23-16 win at Wisconsin sealed his spot as Minnesota’s quarterback of the future.

The future is now, and it is enhanced by a skilled group of veteran targets. That list is led by tight end Brevyn Spann-Ford, who could be the B1G’s best at a position where the league regularly produces top talent.

Receiver Chris Autman-Bell is back for yet another go-around after missing last year to injury. He’s joined by junior Daniel Jackson, who led the Gophers with 5 touchdown receptions last year. Transfers Corey Crooms (Western Michigan) and Elijah Spencer (Charlotte) are also expected to give Minnesota a more downfield dimension.

No Mo, more problems?

Mohamed Ibrahim’s face belongs on the Mount Rushmore of 21st Century Minnesota football players — at the bare minimum.

Ibrahim holds Minnesota’s career and single-season records for rushing yards and rushing touchdowns. Minnesota’s passing shift is as much about no longer having Ibrahim as it is about Kaliakmanis’ potential.

It seems quite unlikely we’re going to see the Gophers abandon the run, however. It’s just going to look different.

Running back Sean Tyler is yet another member of the Kalamazoo-to-Minneapolis pipeline, transferring to Minnesota after 3 years at Western Michigan. Tyler is a shifty, explosive burner who brings a completely different style to the Gophers’ backfield than the powerful Ibrahim.

Redshirt freshman Zach Evans will likely be more of a power back. He had 6 carries for 29 yards and a touchdown against Northwestern in his lone career appearance. (Evans is not to be confused with former TCU and Ole Miss running back Zach Evans, who is currently a rookie with the Los Angeles Rams. It’s like the Vikings and Bears both having running backs named Adrian Peterson all over again.)

True freshman Darius Taylor also has a path to the field thanks to Trey Potts’ departure to Penn State. Potts will be going from a potential No. 1 back for the Gophers to a definitive No. 3 for the Nittany Lions, but the move brings him closer to his Williamsport, Pa., home.

Can the defense remain elite?

Minnesota has ranked in the top 10 nationally in scoring defense the past 2 seasons.

However, those numbers are more a reflection of how the Gophers play complementary football. Minnesota finished 3rd nationally in time of possession in both 2021 and 2022, trailing only service academies in that department each season.

So even though Minnesota was 9th nationally in total defense last season, that figure dips to 21st when broken down into yards allowed per play rather than per game.

The pass defense, however, was the real deal. The Gophers ranked 10th nationally with 6.1 yards allowed per attempt, and allowed the fewest touchdown passes in the country (8) while ranking 22nd in interceptions (14).

That pass defense is replacing cornerback Terell Smith and safety Jordan Howden, both of whom were NFL draft picks.

Fortunately, the Gophers still have senior safety Tyler Nubin, who is a likely all-America candidate. But even though Nubin often seems like he’s everywhere on the field, he can’t play all 5 spots in the secondary at once. Minnesota looks thin on the back end.

Fleck added transfers Jack Henderson (Southeastern Louisiana), Tyler Bride (Georgia Southern) and Ta’Von Jones (Elon) from the transfer portal. The Big Ten is a significant step up in competition for all of them.

An improved pass rush would alleviate those concerns, but that’s also no sure thing. Minnesota was 111th nationally with 19 sacks last season. If the Gophers are going to win the West, they may have to come close to doubling that total. The transfer of defensive tackle Trill Carter to Texas does not help that cause.

Game-by-game predictions

Week 1: Nebraska (W)

There’s always a degree of challenge to facing a first-year coach in his first game. Without much way of scouting, it comes down to having dudes. And right now, Minnesota has more dudes than Nebraska.

Week 2: Eastern Michigan (W)

A MAC team has beaten a Big Ten opponent every year since 2006 — including Bowling Green over Minnesota in 2021. Chris Creighton might be the MAC’s best coach. The Eagles cannot be overlooked.

Week 3: at North Carolina (L)

Heisman candidate Drake Maye is not who an uncertain secondary needs to be seeing in September. Kaliakmanis will put up some big numbers himself against North Carolina’s defense, but the Tar Heels have the edge here.

Week 4: at Northwestern (W)

The Wildcats are precisely who you want to see coming off a loss. Kaliakmanis will put on a show at the stadium closest to his hometown of Antioch, Ill.

Week 5: Louisiana (W)

Another incredibly dangerous non-conference opponent. The Ragin’ Cajuns lost a step in their first season without Billy Napier, but there will still be speed all over the field.

Week 6: Michigan (L)

The Gophers have been blown out by the Wolverines both times Fleck has faced Jim Harbaugh for the Little Brown Jug — even when Michigan wasn’t any good in 2020. It’s probably going to happen again here.

Week 7: Bye

Week 8: at Iowa (L)

Fleck is 5-5 all-time as a head coach after a bye week, and 0-6 against the Hawkeyes. That math is not good.

Week 9: Michigan State (W)

The Gophers paddled the Spartans in East Lansing a year ago, and they’re equipped to do so again when the scene shifts to Minneapolis. Another chance for Kaliakmanis to have a career game against a spotty pass defense.

Week 10: Illinois (L)

Bret Bielema went 7-0 against the Gophers at Wisconsin and is 2-0 against Minnesota at Illinois. Make it a perfect 10-0.

Week 11: at Purdue (W)

Ibrahim was a late scratch against Purdue last year, and the Gophers looked lost without him. There will be a better plan of attack against the Boilers this time around: through the air.

Week 12: at Ohio State (L)

It’s a week before the Buckeyes face Michigan, which gives the Gophers a puncher’s chance at their first win against Ohio State since 2000. But getting to the quarterback is an absolute necessity when it comes to beating the Bucks, and that’s what will ultimately determine the outcome in a close game.

Week 13: Wisconsin (W)

The Badgers will come to Huntington Bank Stadium with 1 loss and a realistic path to the College Football Playoff. Instead, Minnesota fans will have the most fun they’ve had in a long time as they witness the Gophers playing spoiler to retain Paul Bunyan’s Axe for the 3rd straight year — something that hasn’t been done since 1987.

2023 Projection: 7-5 (5-4), 4th in B1G West

#Gophers

Minnesota’s schedule is not conducive to winning the West.

Neither Wisconsin, Illinois nor Iowa face both Michigan and Ohio State. The Gophers do. That figures to make a difference at the end of the race. If Wisconsin takes off in Year 1 under Luke Fickell, it’s conceivable that Minnesota will face 3 top-10 opponents.

In fact, Minnesota’s schedule is so tough that not even a bowl game is a guarantee. The Gophers face the toughest non-conference slate in the B1G. All 3 teams made bowl games last season, and there’s a road game against a Heisman hopeful in that mix.

Minnesota has 9 wins in 3 of its past 4 seasons, but getting there this year would be a heck of a feat. In order for it to happen, Kaliakmanis needs to be the top quarterback in the B1G West right out of the gate. That seems like it could turn out to be the case next year, but of course by that time divisions will be a thing of the past.

In a year with a more favorable schedule, the Crystal Ball could see Minnesota creeping up on the rest of the West. This is certainly not that year. And until Fleck overcomes the twin boogeymen of Ferentz and Bielema, Minnesota will be stuck in a spot just below championship-caliber.