Tradition Crystal Ball: Predicting every Wisconsin football game in 2024

Editor’s note: Saturday Tradition’s annual Crystal Ball prediction series continues with Wisconsin. We will conclude the series with Washington.

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We hope you have enjoyed another installment and the final piece of this year’s Crystal Ball series! Along the way, we’ve been unpacking the total B1G schedule with game-by-game predictions and breakdowns for the season ahead.

Now, we’ve reached the end of our 18-team preview series, and that conclusion centers around Wisconsin. The Badgers are entering Year 2 under Luke Fickell, but plenty of question marks surround the program.

A key component of Fickell’s coaching staff involved hiring Phil Longo, an offensive coordinator who runs the Air Raid offense. It is a vast change for the modern era of Wisconsin football, but it led to just 23.5 points per game in 2023, a mark that finished 93rd in the country for scoring.

More changes are on the way. Wisconsin must replace star running back Braelon Allen. Chez Mellusi returns and former Oklahoma RB Tawee Walker joins the fold to add some depth in that room.

Meanwhile, the biggest transfer piece for Wisconsin is quarterback Tyler Van Dyke, who joins the Badgers from Miami. Van Dyke already has been named the starter (though the coaching staff likes how Braedyn Locke is developing), and his ability to push the ball down field is going to be key in unlocking the full potential of the offense.

As for the defense, a strong core group returns, bolstered by plenty of reinforcements via the transfer portal. Of the 8 defensive transfers, 7 play along the line or at the linebacker position. That group includes 4-star transfers in edge rusher John Pius (William and Mary) LB Tackett Curtis (USC).

So, what does improved QB play and a strong defense ultimately mean for Wisconsin’s chances this fall? It’s time to get to the Crystal Ball!

Game-by-game predictions

Week 1: vs. Western Michigan (W)

Western Michigan had periods of high-water performances in the past under PJ Fleck and Tim Lester. However, the Badgers will not have to worry about Fleck until the season finale, and Lester is now the OC at Iowa. In the 2023 season, the Broncos went 4-8, and the team finished 91st or lower on either side of the ball in terms of scoring. What does that mean? This is a textbook season opener for Wisconsin with a decent runway to get the positive results off the ground.

Week 2: vs. South Dakota (W)

South Dakota was one of the best FCS programs during the 2023 season, even beating powerhouse program North Dakota State during the regular season. The Coyotes reached the quarterfinals of the FCS Playoffs before losing to NDSU in a rematch. South Dakota also enters the season No. 5 in the country per the preseason FCS Coaches Poll. That’s a lot to say about a team that is still ultimately just an FCS program, but the Coyotes should not be taken lightly. Wisconsin should win, but do not expect the traditional emptying of the roster that you may see in other FCS matchups.

Week 3: vs. Alabama (W)

The major story of the college football offseason was Nick Saban retiring, and Alabama hiring Kalen DeBoer. However, anyone expecting a steep drop-off for the Crimson Tide could be in for a rude awakening with Alabama still checking in at No. 5 overall on ESPN’s Football Power Index. Alabama has a shot at another strong season, but do not discredit the impact of traveling on the road in nonconference play. Also, anyone who saw the Crimson Tide last season knows the offense was a train wreck early in the season. Jalen Milroe is a Heisman contender, but give me some early season struggles and a Badgers upset as Alabama faces its first big test under DeBoer.

Week 4: BYE

Week 5: at USC (L)

A 3-0 start, a signature upset and an early bye week will have Fickell’s group feeling really good as they hit the road to USC. They have not faced off in LA since 1966, and it is the first taste of life in the new B1G for the Badgers. I also think this will be a bigger game for the Trojans than it will be for Wisconsin. USC gets matchups against LSU and Michigan before facing Wisconsin, so the Trojans will know if they are fighting for a special season or trying to avoid a 3-loss September. Road trips loom large in the B1G this fall, and this one will claim a previously unbeaten Badger squad.

Week 6: vs. Purdue (W)

Few things will make Wisconsin feel better than coming home from a rough road trip and seeing Purdue. The Badgers have won 17 straight in the series, and you have to go all the way back to 2003 before you find a Purdue team with a win in Madison. Even with an anemic passing attack last year, the Badgers still did enough offensively to blow out the Boilermakers 38-17 in West Lafayette. I think the margin looks even worse this time, especially with an angry Wisconsin team returning home from a loss in Cali.

Week 7: at Rutgers (W)

Wisconsin is 5-0 vs. Rutgers since the Scarlet Knights joined the B1G a decade ago. Greg Schiano was only on the sidelines for 1 of those games — a 24-13 win for Fickell’s squad last season. On paper, I think these teams will be evenly matched. Rutgers gets the benefit of playing at home. This matchup will not feature any style points or break the scoreboard, but Wisconsin’s defense comes up big on the road. Neither team may break 20 points with a nail-biting win for the Badgers.

Week 8: at Northwestern (W)

Wisconsin still historically dominates the series vs. Northwestern. However, the Wildcats are 5-6 in the past 11 meetings, including a 24-10 win for David Braun’s team in Madison a year ago. Wisconsin was doomed by a stagnant ground game that featured a banged-up Braelon Allen and the absence of Chez Mellusi. This time, I believe the Badgers are better equipped offensively to win more games when the ground game goes quiet. And I expect Northwestern to run into a few hard regression games this fall.

Week 9: vs. Penn State (L)

By the time we get to late October, Wisconsin and its fans will be feeling pretty good about themselves. The Badgers are likely to be ranked, and there will be temptation to view this squad as an actual contender in the B1G. Those feelings will mask what shapes up to be a brutal schedule over the final 6 weeks, including a visit from Penn State. The Nittany Lions have had their share of troubles under James Franklin, but he knows how to get his team to the finish line against opponents with less talent. That’s exactly the scenario that will pop up in this showdown with Penn State looking at a possible Playoff bid. Another big-time upset for Wisconsin isn’t in the cards just yet.

Week 10: at Iowa (W)

Speaking of upsets, how about kickstarting November with a signature win in the Heartland Trophy series? Historically speaking, the Iowa-Wisconsin rivalry is one of the most evenly matched with the Badgers holding a 49-46-2 edge. I expect the Hawkeyes to be the better team this season (and will get this game in Iowa City), but something about the historical nature of this game tells me the Badgers are due. Iowa has back-to-back wins over Wisconsin in 2022-23 but has not won 3 in a row since 2002-05. Neither team has scored 30+ points in this game since 2017, so look for this to be all about the defenses.

Week 11: BYE

Week 12: vs. Oregon (L)

The schedule-makers did Wisconsin one favor by putting this game in Madison. However, it’s not going to feel like much of a favor whenever the Ducks arrive at Camp Randall Stadium. If not for the pressure facing Ryan Day and Ohio State, Dan Lanning would be the talk of the B1G this season. And his Oregon program is already one of the major storylines with the Ducks among the favorites in the B1G Championship Game odds. Oregon has been built to compete in the B1G and a national scale, meaning the depth of the Ducks will aid them late in the season, even if key injuries accrue. In fact, injuries are the only hope Wisconsin has of keeping this one close, but I don’t see any pathway to a Badgers victory here.

Week 13: at Nebraska (L)

Wisconsin has won 10 in a row in the series and is 13-4 all-time. However, the gap has been closing. The average margin of victory in the past 3 wins has been 5 points, including an overtime decision in 2023. Nebraska is hunting its own rebound season in 2024, and I think the Huskers will be hitting their stride over the 2nd half of the season. The Huskers are overdue a bit of payback in many B1G series, and this will be a moment to relieve some of those stresses against the Badgers.

Week 14: vs. Minnesota (W)

Wisconsin and Minnesota play one of the longest-recurring rivalries in college football, and the overall record is unique. The record is nearly split, with the Badgers holding a 63-62-8 edge after a win over Minnesota in 2023. That victory came Minneapolis, giving the Badgers a great shot and going back-to-back over their rivals at home this year. All this matchup boils down to for me is the fact that Wisconsin spent the offseason getting better in the transfer portal, mainly at QB. Max Brosmer might be an improvement for Minnesota, but I’m not sold in this type of rivalry environment.

2024 Projection: 8-4 (5-4)

After going 7-5 in the regular season last year, Wisconsin wins 8 games in 2024. That’s not the major improvement fans are likely hoping for, but the overall play on the field should be much better.

Gone are the disheartening losses to programs like Indiana, Northwestern and Washington State. And in their place, the Badgers will find a way to score a few upsets against marquee opponents this fall.

Those wins will bring hope to a fan base and an encouraging sign that Fickell can truly deliver on the expectations that existed when he was hired. Establishing his foundation is a lengthier process than some imagined ahead of Fickell’s first season leading the Badgers, but the 2024 results will show the foundation is progressing.

Fans will ride with the good vibes of 2024 while taking advantage of another quality bowl game to cap the season.