Tradition Crystal Ball: Predicting every Washington football game in 2024

Editor’s note: Saturday Tradition’s annual Crystal Ball prediction series wraps up with Washington.

Previously: Illinois | Indiana | Iowa | Maryland | Michigan | Michigan State | Minnesota | Nebraska | Northwestern | Ohio State | Oregon | Penn State | Purdue | Rutgers | UCLA | USC | Wisconsin

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Jedd Fisch is no stranger to program rebuilds, having just undergone an extensive one at Arizona in record time, but the task he has on his hands at Washington in 2024 is a massive project.

All 11 starters on offense from the UW team that won the Pac-12 and advanced to the College Football Playoff National Championship last season are gone. Nine of the 11 starters on defense are gone. The entire coaching staff changed over after Kalen DeBoer left to take the Alabama job.

Fisch brought 7 Arizona assistants with him to Seattle. He hired an assistant away from Alabama. He brought Bill Belichick’s son, Steve, to town from the New England Patriots to run his defense. And Belichick brought a former national champion with him from the New England staff to coach safeties.

This is looking like a strong staff. It needs to be. Washington ranks in the bottom 10 nationally in terms of returning production, per Bill Connelly’s tracking.

Can Will Rogers keep the offense from bottoming out?

The previous coaching staff recruited former Mississippi State passer Will Rogers to be their Michael Penix Jr. successor. Rogers committed to Kalen DeBoer and appeared set to transfer in and bridge the gap between Penix and Austin Mack — the perceived quarterback of the future.

Then DeBoer left, Mack followed him to Tuscaloosa, and Rogers was left in limbo. He re-entered the transfer portal but kept an open mind. Fisch promised Rogers he’d treat him like an NFL passer in a one-on-one shortly after the new UW coach took the job and Rogers decided to pull out of the portal and stick it out with Washington.

Fisch was able to bring a quarterback with him from Arizona to Washington — though UW fans likely wanted the guy who stayed in Tucson. Noah Fifita was a huge factor in the Wildcats’ midseason ascension last fall. Fifita was mobile and deadly accurate. On short and intermediate throws, Fifita completed 77% of his throws with a healthy per-pass yardage clip.

Rogers struggled during the transition from Mike Leach’s Air Raid to more of a pro system and posted the worst year of his career before going down with an injury. He completed 64% of his passes on short and intermediate throws.

The transition from Penix to Rogers was going to be a stark one, regardless of who was coaching the team. Penix’s deep-ball accuracy made him a first-round NFL pick despite an extensive injury history.

But Rogers is also one of college football’s most experienced passers. He’s the SEC’s all-time leader in career completions, ranks second all-time in passing yards, and fourth in career passing touchdowns.

Fisch brought tailback Jonah Coleman (871 yards, 5 scores) with him from Arizona and signed wideout Jeremiah Hunter from Cal (731 yards, 7 scores). Denzel Boston, a third-year man, had a strong offseason and looks poised for an increased role.

With talent around him, how effective can Washington’s offense be?

How good can the back of the defense be?

While Washington doesn’t bring back much on the defensive side of the football, there’s potential on Montlake for something kind of special — at least in the backend.

Up front, Washington is in total rebuild mode. Bralen Trice, Zion Tupuola-Fetui, Tuli Letuligasenoa, Ulumoo Ale, and Faatui Tuitele are all gone. Voi Tunuufi is a nice piece to have on the edge, but 235 games of experience from just defensive linemen walked out the door and that’s not easily replaced on the defensive line.

But maybe UW can mitigate the losses. Linebackers Alphonzo Tuputala and Carson Bruener are back. They finished fourth and third, respectively, on the team in tackles last season. Bruener was also one of the best coverage linebackers at the Power Five level last season. Elijah Jackson (fifth in tackles) is back and All-Pac-12 Arizona corner Ephesians Prysock joins him to form what should be a very formidable corner partnership. Safety Kamren Fabiculanan will see his role expand after netting 26 tackles, 3 TFLs, 2 pass breakups, and 2 interceptions playing the Husky position last fall.

With Belichick’s tendency to run man on the outside, if Washington’s corners are top-half-of-the-league caliber, this has the potential to be a really stingy pass defense.

Washington ranked 30th nationally against the pass last season, giving up 6.7 yards per attempt. UW was also among the nation’s leaders in interceptions, picking off 16 passes in 15 games. Rush and coverage are symbiotic in nature; lockdown coverage will help this rebuilt defensive front find its footing a little faster.

Can Washington take advantage of this schedule and beat the timeline?

When Fisch took over Arizona, the program was in the midst of a 12-game losing streak that included an 0-5 year in 2020 and a 7-game slide to close the 2019 season. The losing streak would extend to 20 games in Fisch’s first season as the depth of the rebuild was laid bare for everyone to see.

From Nov. 6, 2021 through the end of last December, Fisch went 16-13. The Wildcats improved to 5-7 in 2022 and then won 10 games last fall to complete the best 2-year turnaround in school history.

Very few expect Washington to slip as low as Arizona was. This UW program is much further along. But virtually no one outside of Seattle expects UW to compete for the Big Ten in 2024. UW is +3000 at DraftKings just to make the Big Ten title game.

But this schedule is favorable in how it is constructed. Washington has a shot at being 5-0 when the calendar flips to October. Nonconference games are against Weber State, Eastern Michigan, and Washington State. All of them are in Seattle. The Huskies host Northwestern to begin Big Ten play. Then they travel to Rutgers.

That fifth game — UW’s first on the road — is plenty winnable. After games against Michigan and Iowa, Washington has 5 games in 7 weeks. USC and UCLA both come to Seattle. Indiana is another perfectly winnable road game. Bowl eligibility shouldn’t be in question.

Can UW steal a game against a ranked opponent?

The win total is 6.5 with +100 odds on the over at DraftKings. But if UW pulls an upset, 8 wins is very much on the table.

Game-by-game predictions

Week 1: vs. Weber State (W)

UW opens the season with a comfortable win over an FCS opponent. There’s not much to take from this, as depth will see the field and points will be had. Weber State gave up 31 points to an anemic Utah offense last year.

Week 2: vs. Eastern Michigan (W)

EMU took a step back last season from its 9-win 2022 mark, and another step could be on the table in 2024. The Eagles are 118th nationally in Bill Connelly’s SP+ and return just 44% of their production from a season ago. The offense is a major liability and improvement in 2024 is entirely contingent on transfers coming in and clicking. Early in the season, UW’s defense has a big day.

Week 3: vs. Washington State (W)

The Cougars won the Apple Cup in Seattle by trouncing Washington in 2021. Since, UW has beaten Wazzu twice. In Pullman in 2022, Michael Penix Jr. and the Huskies put 51 points on the board. Last year, UW kicked a walk-off field goal to end a 12-play drive and cap a perfect regular season. This year’s contest won’t be nearly as close. The talent gap at key positions is too pronounced. Wazzu lost a ton of skill production and edge talent after the 2023 season ended.

Week 4: vs. Northwestern (W)

Northwestern was one of the surprises of 2023 when it emerged from a controversy-stricken offseason to win 87 regular-season games under then-interim head coach David Braun. The Wildcats then beat a rag-tag Utah team in the Las Vegas Bowl 14-7. A crash back to reality is coming in 2024 for a group that has weaknesses at quarterback, in the secondary, and along the offensive line. Washington wins going away.

Week 5: at Rutgers (L)

The Huskies hit the road to take on a quality Rutgers team that runs the ball well and plays excellent defense. Even though the Scarlet Knights recently lost star linebacker Mohamed Toure to a season-ending ACL injury, I still think Rutgers can do enough to control the game and send UW home with a loss. Kyle Monangai, last year’s leading rusher in the Big Ten, gashes UW 1 too many times.

Week 6: vs. Michigan (L)

The Wolverines might have some serious questions on the offensive side of the football, but led by All-Americans galore on the defensive line and corner Will Johnson, the defense will be one of the best in the nation. And we know defense travels. Michigan wins the line of scrimmage and the turnover battle to leave Seattle with a victory.

Week 7: at Iowa (L)

Washington heads into its first bye week with a third straight loss. Another outstanding defense makes it clear what life will be like in the Big Ten. Pressure and turnovers will once again play a role.

Week 8: BYE

Week 9: at Indiana (W)

New IU head coach Curt Cignetti brought 13 former James Madison players with him to Bloomington, including 5 key figures from a defense that ranked 16th nationally last season in per-play efficiency and led all FBS teams in tackles for loss. Defensive linemen Mikail Kamara and James Carpenter combined for 27.5 TFLs last fall. The defense could be pretty gnarly if the step up in competition doesn’t prove too much. The Hoosiers’ defense will keep them in the game against UW, but I don’t think the offense can do enough damage to win.

Week 10: vs. USC (W)

USC has lost 3 of the past 4 to Washington and trips to Seattle have been consistently tricky. I like UW to pull a late-season upset in what will be USC’s seventh game in as many weeks.

Week 11: at Penn State (L)

Penn State on the road? In November? Against that defense? Nothing about this trip to University Park will be an enjoyable experience for Fisch and Co. Penn State had the best defense in the country last season and the pieces are in place for another absolutely elite defensive unit. Washington will be stressed everywhere.

Week 12: vs. UCLA (W)

The Bruins are in for a rough first season under DeShaun Foster. I like Washington’s defense to have a strong showing to build some momentum into the bye week.

Week 13: BYE

Week 14: at Oregon (L)

Oregon has lost 3 straight to UW, making Dan Lanning the program’s first coach since Rich Brooks to lose each of his first 3 games to the Huskies. The game this season will be in Eugene. While so many key pieces of last year’s defeat return for Oregon, so many major players for the Huskies needed to be replaced. This game will obviously mean something to UW, but given the recent history, it’ll probably mean more to an Oregon sideline that is tired of coming up short in the rivalry. Oregon’s the better team. Oregon is likely the more motivated team. And, given this will be the final game of the regular season, it’s worth mentioning a certain team in Florida might be sniffing around for its next coach. I think the Ducks take care of business with relative ease.

2024 Projection: 7-5 (4-5 Big Ten)

Bowl eligibility won’t be in doubt, and UW will clear its preseason win total, but the opening salvo in the Big Ten will prove a difficult one. Washington’s rebuilt offensive and defensive lines will be tested. But with a schedule that features 5 of the Big Ten’s top 6 (using SP+), there’s no reason to fret over Fisch’s first year in charge.