
Tradition Crystal Ball: Predicting every Northwestern football game in 2023
Editor’s note: Saturday Tradition’s annual Crystal Ball series continues today with Northwestern. We’ll work through every B1G West team this week, after covering every East team last week.
Previously in the West: Illinois | Iowa | Minnesota | Nebraska
The East: Indiana | Maryland | Michigan | Michigan State | Ohio State | Penn State| Rutgers
Purple Haze isn’t just a Jimi Hendrix song anymore. It doubles as a descriptor of life inside Northwestern’s football culture.
And because Pat Fitzgerald was either oblivious or indifferent to that detail, the Wildcats have someone new on the sidelines for the first time since Fitz took over in the aftermath of Randy Walker’s death in 2006.
Outside of Joe Paterno’s dismissal, there hasn’t been a more stunning sudden coaching change in modern Big Ten history. The thought of firing Fitzgerald was unthinkable just days before the release of an independent report detailing widespread hazing within the program.
In the eyes of Northwestern president Michael Schill, it was unthinkable even that very day — Fitzgerald was initially suspended for the 2 weeks leading up to Big Ten Media Days. But the uproar that followed when more details were reported over the ensuing weekend forced Schill’s hand just 3 days later.
The decision left Northwestern in the inexperienced hands of David Braun, who was hired from North Dakota State in January to be the Cats’ defensive coordinator. Braun has never coached at the FBS level, or served as a head coach at any level.
Yet here he is, doing both. While simultaneously dealing with the fallout of the hazing report.
“I’ve never been this far outside of my comfort zone before,” Braun admitted at Big Ten Media Days. “I didn’t think I was going into the fire. I thought I was going to my dream job [as defensive coordinator] in the Big Ten. I’ve been thrust into the fire.”
Is there enough hose to prevent Northwestern’s season from being engulfed?
First goal: Winning in the USA
Northwestern’s summer has been so terrible that it becomes easy for one to forget the season that preceded it.
Unfortunately, there is no Man In Black to erase it from the memory banks entirely. It happened. And these are the gory details.
Northwestern was last in the B1G and 128th nationally in scoring with 13.8 points per game. Northwestern quarterbacks ranked 117th in touchdown passes (10) and 125th in interceptions (17).
After opening the season with a win over Nebraska in Ireland, Northwestern dropped 11 straight games to conclude its worst season since 1989. The list of indignities included a loss to FCS Southern Illinois.
1989 was Northwestern’s third and final winless season in the 1980s. That particular losing streak, which began with the 1988 season finale, stretched to 14 games before the Cats won their third game in 1990.
In one regard, the modern Wildcats are even worse off than that group. Northwestern has lost 17 straight games on American soil. Their last stateside win came on Oct. 16, 2021 against Rutgers. That game is also Northwestern’s most recent victory at Ryan Field.
The very modest top goal for this year: actually winning a game in the United States. Even if it means doing so in New Jersey.
Second goal: Find a QB
You know the meme with 2 serious dragon heads and 1 goofy-looking dragon head?
Northwestern’s quarterback situation last season was like have 3 goofy-looking dragon heads.
But sophomore Brendan Sullivan showed flashes of becoming a serious dragon. Sullivan completed 74% of his attempts for 6.1 yards per attempt with 4 touchdowns and 3 interceptions.
His best game was against, of all teams, Iowa. The numbers were modest — 23-of-30 for 159 yards with 2 touchdowns and an interception. But no quarterback completed a higher percentage of throws against the Hawkeyes last season.
Unfortunately, Sullivan missed Northwestern’s final 2 games due to injury, inhibiting any further growth.
This year, he should be backing up Cincinnati transfer Ben Bryant. Bryant took over for Desmond Ridder last year, averaging 7.8 yards per attempt with 21 touchdowns and 7 interceptions.
In most of Fitzgerald’s 16 seasons, quarterback was a position of strength for the Wildcats. Bryant should be able to make a Peyton Ramsey-type impact in his lone season in Evanston. And a more seasoned Sullivan is going to be a better backup than a year ago if needed.
The receivers are just as vital to the improvement of Northwestern’s passing game as the quarterbacks. Bryce Kirtz is Northwestern’s top returning receiver with a whopping 19 receptions. Transfers Cam Johnson (Arizona State) and AJ Henning (Michigan) will play significant roles getting this offense out of a rut.
Third goal: Fix the defense
And now for the job Braun was actually hired from North Dakota State to do. He was named the FCS national defensive coordinator of the year in 2021 and helped the Bison to 2 national titles in his 4 years in Fargo.
Northwestern’s defense has fallen off the face of the earth since coordinator Mike Hankwitz retired in 2020. The Cats fell from 5th nationally in Hankwitz’s final season to 89th in 2021 and 82nd last year.
Northwestern simply lost its ability to stop the run, dropping from 46th in 2020 to 119th in ’21 and 109th in ’22.
The Cats also lost the ability to create turnovers. Northwestern’s turnover differential was minus-18 — worst in the country. With only 12 takeaways, the Wildcats finished 117th in the country in that category.
Braun’s stated top priority when he took the defensive coordinator gig was increasing takeaways. He should have some pieces in place capable of making that happen. Northwestern returns all 3 starting linebackers, led by all-B1G candidate Bryce Gallagher in the middle.
A defensive front that couldn’t stop the run and ranked last in the B1G with 18 sacks must be better than last season, though.
Game-by-game predictions
Week 1: at Rutgers (L)
It’s a true testament to network TV executives that this game between 2 of the Big Ten’s worst teams has been given a Sunday night of Labor Day weekend time slot on CBS. And people wonder how “Freaks and Geeks” was cancelled after less than a season. These people. That’s how.
Anyway, the Scarlet Knights win this monstrosity.
Week 2: UTEP (W)
You can literally see into Mexico from the upper reaches of UTEP’s home stadium, the Sun Bowl. Which is practically like playing a team from another country. And any time passports are involved, Northwestern has a chance. So maybe the Wildcats should move the game to El Paso to improve their chances.
Week 3: at Duke (L)
The Blue Devils are actually good now. The Wildcats are not.
Week 4: Minnesota (L)
If, and only if, Minnesota comes into this game on the heels of a road win at North Carolina, look for the Wildcats to catch the Gophers napping. But the Crystal Ball has Minnesota losing to the Tar Heels, and PJ Fleck won’t let 1 loss turn into 2.
Week 5: Penn State (L)
The Cats gave the Nittany Lions a surprisingly stiff fight last year in an ugly weather game. And if Penn State comes to Evanston high on its horse with a 4-0 record after beating Iowa, this becomes another chance for an upset. But the Crystal Ball has Iowa upsetting Penn State, so instead it will be an angry group of Lions looking to run Northwestern into the ground.
Week 6: Howard (W)
Howard is one of the most academically respected HBCUs, but the Bison won’t be handing Northwestern its second straight loss to an FCS opponent.
Week 7: Bye
Week 8: at Nebraska (L)
Last year’s loss was the kind you don’t let go of if you’re the Huskers. They will have their vengeance.
Week 9: Maryland (L)
When a visiting quarterback has a performance like this in Cook County, he’s usually wearing a Packers uniform. Taulia Tagovailoa will light up the Cats defense.
Week 10: vs. Iowa at Wrigley Field (W)
Kirk Ferentz is 3-11 lifetime when Iowa plays a road game the week after a bye. Which is what this game happens to be. This also fits Northwestern’s M.O. of winning “home games” that aren’t actually at Ryan Field. The Hawkeyes will rue this one when they aren’t in the Big Ten championship game.
Week 11: at Wisconsin (L)
Wisconsin’s new high-powered offense will unleash plenty of that power at the expense of the hapless Cats.
Week 12: Purdue (L)
Ryan Walters made Northwestern’s offense look especially bad when he was Illinois’ defensive coordinator. The Crystal Ball sees him having the same affect at Purdue.
Week 13: at Illinois (L)
Bret Bielema has flipped the script on this rivalry, which the Illini will begin taking control of in ways unseen since the mid-’80s.
2023 Projection: 3-9 (1-8), 7th in B1G West
#GoCats
Based on the reports out of training camp, expect the Wildcats to come out fighting like a wounded animal this season.
The firing of Fitzgerald and the external criticism of the program have clearly strengthened the resolve of the 2023 team, though one wonders if any players who may have contributed to the hazing have taken a look in the mirror. Their actions are what cost the most beloved figure in program history his job — not the public outcry.
Given the potential for this team to spin negative experiences into positive emotions, it’s not impossible for the Cats to spring enough upsets to reach a bowl game.
But the defense has many uncertainties outside of the linebacking corps. And the offensive line is replacing left tackle Peter Skoronski, who is among the top players in program history.
Northwestern hasn’t gone winless in Big Ten play since 1989, and that streak will continue this year. Beyond that, though, the storm clouds swirling over an already deficient team portend a mostly miserable season.